Relearning Economics Profile picture
Sep 10 13 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Treasury auctions sound like "the market funding the government."

But peel back the layers, and you'll see: all primary auctions are settled with reserves created by the Fed.

A thread.
🧵1/13 Image
Every week, the Treasury issues new securities at auction.

Primary Dealers are OBLIGATED to bid. Indirect bidders (pension funds, foreign central banks, asset managers) now take 90% of the allocations.
🧵2/13
But here's the key: all bids clear through Primary Dealers with accounts with the Fed.

Indirect bidders and some Primary Dealers don’t have accounts at the Fed. They place orders through dealers.

Settlement happens inside the Federal Reserve’s payment system.
🧵3/13
Who can settle directly with the Fed?

Only institutions with Fed accounts: commercial banks and designated primary dealers (many of which are subsidiaries of big banks).
When securities are issued, they're delivered into Fedwire Securities accounts.

Payment is debited from Fedwire Funds accounts, which are reserve balances at the Fed.
🧵5/13
So whether bids come from JPMorgan itself, or from BlackRock through JPMorgan as intermediary, final settlement is the same: a debit of reserves to the Treasury's account at the Fed.
🧵6/13
"But aren’t most primary dealers non-banks?"

True, many are broker-dealer subsidiaries.

But they clear and settle through banks with reserve accounts (e.g. JPM, BNY Mellon).

No reserves, no settlement.
🧵7/13
This is why saying "the market funds the government" is misleading.

Private bids are real, but the medium is reserves, and the Fed is the sole issuer of reserves.
🧵8/13
Historically, the Treasury Tax & Loan program allowed some auction proceeds to sit in private banks temporarily.

But since 2008, with abundant reserves and interest on reserves, all auctions now settle directly in Fed balances.
🧵9/13
So strip away the intermediaries:
–Dealers place bids
–Reserves are debited
–Treasury’s account at the Fed is credited

The Fed creates the balances that make this possible.
🧵10/13
Even when dealers repo or borrow to fund bids, they're still recycling reserves.

They can’t create them. Only the Fed can.
🧵11/13
In other words: auctions are not the private sector "funding" government.

They're a reshuffling of Fed liabilities from dealer accounts to the Treasury’s account.
🧵12/13
Once you see that, the picture changes:

Treasury issuance is settled in reserves, and reserves are a Fed monopoly.

The complexity obscures it, but the outcome is clear: the state funds itself nominally.
🧵13/13
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More from @RelearningEcon

Sep 7
What is wealth? Different schools of economics give very different answers.

A thread.
🧵1/13 Image
Classical economics (Smith, Ricardo):

Wealth = produced surplus.

It comes from labor applied to nature, creating output beyond subsistence.

The central issue is distribution: who gets profits, wages, and rents?
🧵2/13
Neoclassical economics:

Wealth = utility embodied in goods & services.

Focus shifts from production to exchange.

Here, wealth is whatever satisfies preferences, measured in prices.
🧵3/13
Read 13 tweets
Sep 3
The "crowding out" myth: government deficits don’t squeeze private investment.

They create net financial assets.

A thread.
🧵1/12 Image
The textbook story:
Gov borrows more → supply of loanable funds falls → interest rates rise → private investment gets "crowded out."

It’s tidy. It’s also not how modern monetary systems work.
🧵2/12
Reality: when the federal gov runs a deficit, it injects more net financial assets into the private sector.

Treasuries are just safe interest-bearing assets created by public spending.
🧵3/12
Read 12 tweets
Sep 2
Elon Musk warns of "low birth rates."⚠️

But the real threat isn’t too few people, it’s the system’s limits.📈

The Limits to Growth study had the answer 50 years ago.

A thread.
🧵1/12 Image
Musk’s story: if population falls, economies collapse.

His "fix"? Have more children.

But this assumes growth = bodies. It misses the real constraint: the material system that supports those bodies.
🧵2/12
Back in 1972, Limits to Growth modeled the global economy as a system of stocks and flows:
–Population
–Resources
–Industrial output
–Food
–Pollution

The feedbacks between them told a stark story.
🧵3/12 Image
Read 12 tweets
Aug 28
MPT claims wages equal your individual contribution.

But the evidence doesn’t fit. CEO pay has soared while worker wages barely budged.

Either CEOs became omnipotent, or MPT fails.
🧵1/10 Image
Since 1978:
– CEO compensation rose ~1,200%
– Worker pay ~15%
– Productivity ~70%

MPT can’t explain this gap.

citations:
-barrons.com/articles/worke…
-mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/5…
-businessinsider.com/ceo-compensati…

🧵2/10
Across borders, identical jobs pay wildly different wages.

A McDonald’s worker in the U.S. earns 4–5× what a counterpart in Brazil does, even adjusted for Big Macs.

Institutions, not productivity, are the story.

citations:

🧵3/10crei.cat/wp-content/upl…
Read 10 tweets
Aug 27
Perfect competition is the textbook ideal:
– Many small firms
– Identical products
– Perfect information
– Free entry & exit

In this world, no firm has power. Prices are set by supply & demand.

But here’s the problem…
🧵1/9 Image
No real-world industry looks like this.

Firms spend billions on branding precisely because products aren’t identical.

Information is imperfect. Entry is costly. Exit destroys capital.

The assumptions erase how markets actually work.
🧵2/9
Textbooks still cling to it because it creates neat diagrams:
– Downward sloping demand
– Upward sloping supply
– Equilibrium at the intersection

But the model’s clarity comes from stripping away reality.
🧵3/9
Read 9 tweets
Aug 25
📌 Share buybacks: greedy short-termism, or part of a broader capital system?

The debate is noisier than it is clear.

Here’s a systems view.
🧵1/12 Image
Buybacks spark endless debate: are they corporate greed, or rational capital use?

Critics say they starve investment.

Defenders say they return cash to shareholders.
But the real story is more complex.
🧵2/12
My take: buybacks are like buying out a silent partner.
Equity is financing, just like debt.

When firms don’t need that equity anymore, they repurchase shares.

It’s a repositioning, not the end of investment.
🧵3/12
Read 12 tweets

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