DeepDownAnalysis Profile picture
Sep 10, 2025 13 tweets 8 min read Read on X
🚨 Nepal is boiling.

But Wait..
Is the world’s only Hindu Rashtra making a comeback?

What began as a Gen-Z outcry against a social media ban has turned into something far bigger anger at corruption, misgovernance & failed democracy.

Now, with protesters demanding a “Modi-like PM” and the Nepal's Army Chief addressing Nation under the portrait of Nepal’s first King…Image
Image
On September 4, KP Oli govt announced ban on Social Media.

And unrest irrupted.

The immediate spark was a sudden ban on 26 social-media platforms Facebook, X, Instagram, YouTube and others — which removed the primary organizing and grievance-sharing channels for the youngest Nepalis.

But the protests weren’t only about apps: Gen-Z crowds were expressing long-standing frustration with corruption, nepotism, cronyism, youth unemployment and economic stagnation.

The unrest turned deadly: dozens killed and hundreds injured during clashes, and the government quickly rolled back the ban amid mounting pressure.

But damage was done.Image
What began as student-led street actions escalated very quickly. Protesters pushed toward the federal parliament, clashes produced live rounds, rubber bullets and mass arrests, and in several spots government buildings and senior officials’ residences were torched or vandalized.

The army’s intervention and the symbolism of a king’s portrait:Image
When the Army Chief, General Ashok Raj Sigdel, made a national address seeking calm and when footage/photos from army locations showed a historic royal portrait in the background, there comes a strong message and mood.

The Nepal Army was deployed to restore order; curfews were imposed and the prime minister resigned within days.

The Nepal Army historically traces lineage to the Shah monarchy and, in ceremonial spaces, portraits of founders like Prithvi Narayan Shah are common.

A portrait behind a COAS during a crisis is a symbol — and symbols matter in politics because they communicate continuity, legitimacy and identity.Image
That portrait also symbolizes where Nepal can find prosperity and peace.

It was King Birendra, who made monarchy constitutional and power was passed to representative govt.

After the assassination of King Birendra, Gyanendra took over the throne and regime became authoritarian.

After years of unrest, full democracy was established in 2008 but it never succeeded in Nepal beyond some ceremonial constitutional changes.

Nepal, the only Hindu Rashtra, became secular under
the rule Maoist, Communists, Centrists.

Nepalese dream of corruption free and people first governance never got realised.

IN this whole process, Nepalese PMs have been more often than not leaning to Chinese side and had troubled relation with India.Image
The pro-monarchy and Hindu-Rashtra currents: are they real?

Yes — they exist and are visible.

Since early 2025 there have been organized pro-monarchy rallies and public calls by some groups to restore a Hindu state, including large demonstrations that drew thousands and occasional violent clashes.

Campaigns for “Hindu Rashtra” and a constitutional monarchy have presence in public debate, amplified by parties such as Rastriya Prajatantra Party and by activist networks.

But the scale matters: while visible and vocal, these movements have not yet achieved a clear majority mandate across Nepal’s diverse electorate.

They are one of several competing fault-lines (ethnic, regional, class, generational) in Nepali politics. So: the sentiment is real, not merely an online meme — but it was not so relevant till this GenZ protest happened.Image
GenZ protest has opened door for all possibilities in Nepal.

Protestors want an accountable, reformist govt that's why Kathmandu's governor Balendra Shah is their favourite.

A young technocrat with no prior affiliation. But Question arises: Can he win election beyond city of Kathmandu and form a majority govt without Party affiliation?
Answer is NO.
Because parties have means, mechanism, cadre etc to get election results in their favour.

Will external power make him their pawn to make Nepal vassal state?

Answer is YES.

So What can be the binding force for Nepal?

Answer is what King Birendra did in 90s.Image
Set Up Monarchy with people's representatives in key decision making.

Balendra's popularity is limited to Gen z but Monarchy is known to all age group.

Getting Monarchy back to power with people like Balendra being part of it is not a bad idea.

Nepalese still proudly call their country Hindu Rashtra.

Modi's popularity their shows they want a unapologetic progressive system of governance.

I am not saying this out of blue:Image
Historically Nepal was the world’s only official Hindu kingdom until the monarchy was abolished in 2008; the idea of a Hindu Rashtra draws on that heritage.

Surveys and reportage show a large Hindu majority (over 80% by the 2021 census), and for many Hindus the monarchy symbolized unity and cultural dignity.

But turning cultural majority into a state form requires law, votes, constitutional change — and those are heavy hurdles.

After 2008 the republic and secular articles are embedded in institutional law and international commitments. Restoring a religious monarchy (or a Hindu state) would need broad parliamentary consensus or a referendum — not a quick executive reorder.

Symbolic momentum alone is insufficient without political and institutional machinery.

There is another angle that Nepal needs to worry about and India will be closely monitoring:Image
Geopolitics: India, China, and why the border angle matters

Nepal sits between India and China; any big domestic shock has external strategic consequences. Under KP Oli, Kathmandu shifted closer to Beijing (BRI agreements, a new 2020 map that hardened claims on border tracts), creating distrust with New Delhi.

Amid the unrest, some commentators and officials warned about “political cadres” or spoilers exploiting protests and noted how border tensions could be inflamed if instability persists.

India publicly voiced concern and appealed for calm — and New Delhi will be watching whether instability produces an opening for more China influence or for a change in Nepal’s domestic regime that affects bilateral cooperation. I

In short: external actors watch and, at times, exploit openings. But rigorous evidence that a foreign state orchestrated the protests has not been produced; most reporting points to domestic grievances with opportunistic exploitation.

How India is reading this situation:Image
Stable and Independent Nepal will be India's first priority.

Majority of Elected govt have faced serious corruption charges and have inclination toward's India's adversaries.

Due to corruption, Nepal became centre of action by external forces against India.

India's cultural ties with Nepal and Nepal's royal family have been very strong before it hit some lows due to multiple reasons during late years of King Gyanendra rule.

Indians wont feel bad if Nepal goes back to progressive Monarchy and Hindu Rashtra state.

So: is “Hindu Rashtra” or a monarchy-plus-democracy hybrid loading?Image
Short answer: Possible but not imminent.

Evidence for a comeback includes visible pro-monarchy mobilization, cultural resonance of royal symbolism, and an army that references historical legitimacy.

Against that: the republic is constitutionally entrenched, mass national consent appears fractured (not consolidated behind royals), and international/legal constraints make a sudden, formal restoration hard. Plausible scenarios:

(A) symbolic revival: more royal imagery and influence without legal restoration;

(B) hybrid compromise: stronger executive powers, national unity rhetoric, perhaps a referendal push — slow, contested;

(C) full restoration: unlikely without broad elite and institutional collusion (including parliament, judiciary and international acquiescence).

My read: watch symbolism and institutional moves (curfews, army legal posture, parliamentary maneuvers).
Symbolism signals intent; institutions deliver reality.Image
What to watch next & the practical bottom line:

If you want to track whether Nepal moves toward a religion-backed monarchy or merely a more muscular, conservative republic, watch for three things:

(1) Formal legal steps - Bills, constitutional amendments, emergency decrees;

(2) Institutional alignment - Does the army move from caretaker to political arbiter (statements, arrests, direct governance actions);

(3) Mass legitimacy — large, repeated nationwide rallies with clear, unified demands for monarchy/Hindu Rashtra.

Right now, the Gen-Z uprising has re-opened the door to contested narratives (including pro-monarchy ones) but has not yet closed it in favor of a royal restoration.

For now, the stronger signal is youth demand for accountable, effective government, which can take many institutional forms — not an automatic return to the old order but can be a possibility.Image

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More from @deepdownanlyz

Dec 16, 2025
Tariffs were supposed to kill India’s exports.

The economy was declared “dead”.

Trump raised duties.

Raghuram Rajan said Pakistan played it smart and got the better deal.
Reality check:

After 8.2% GDP growth for last quarter, India surpassed all predictions with its exports in November.

India’s exports jumped 19% to $38.13B in November. Exports to the US surged 22.6% YoY and 10% MoM.

Pakistan’s exports to the US fell ~15% in the same month.

Turns out noise does not move trade. Strategy does.

Thread. 👇Image
Image
November 2025 changed the debate. Merchandise exports jumped 19% YoY to $38.13B, and total exports (goods + services) hit $73.99B.

India’s export growth was not narrow. It was broad-based.

Major drivers in November 2025:
• Engineering goods +23.76%
• Electronic goods +38.96%
• Gems and jewellery +27.80%
• Drugs and pharmaceuticals +20.91%
• Petroleum products +11.65%

This matters because many of these sectors are either higher value or less tariff-sensitive.

The merchandise trade deficit slumped from a record ~$41.7B in October to $24.53B in November — far better than market estimates.

India’s exports to the U.S. rose 22.6% in November to $6.98 billion, which is even higher than its exports of $6.31 billion in the prior month.

India’s exports to the U.S. were down 8.6% in October and 11.9% in September.

India’s exports of goods and services for November were up 15.52% at $73.99 billion.

Those are not small moves: they show exports rose while imports eased, tightening external balances in one month.Image
Image
US TRADE: REBOUND DESPITE HIGH TARIFFS

India’s merchandise goods trade deficit, which had touched a record high of roughly $41.7 billion in October, shrank to $24.5 billion in November, beating a Reuters poll estimate of $32 billion.

Even with US duties increased (extra 25% in Aug, taking some lines to ~50%), exports to the US rose ~22.6% in November to ~$6.98B, reversing falls in September-October.

That rebound came from shifting product mix and higher-value shipments rather than volume-led commodity pushes. In short: tariffs raised costs, but exporters changed what and how they sold.Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 8, 2025
IndiGo Chaos was planned well in advance in May 2025.

It was designed to bring Govt to its toes.

DGCA and Civil Aviation were never the target of this chaos.

Air India crash was the starting point.

It is part of a complicated geo politcal battle.

Read this till the end.Image
Turkish connection:

IndiGo codeshares to 40+ European/US points via Turkish; reciprocal for Turkish on Indian routes.

Turkish airline is the major partner.

The major shareholder of Turkish Airlines is the Türkiye Wealth Fund (Turkish Wealth Fund), which holds approximately 49.12% of the company's shares.

This fund's chairman is President Erdogan.

Turkey has been the biggest logistical and political supporter of Pakistan during Op Sindoor.

Along with Pakistan Turkey also lost credibility of its drones and business due to India cancelling contracts for Turkish companies and Indians bycotting Turkey in different forms.

Before Air India crash on June 12, explosives...Image
were found on Turkish Airlines flight surprise check in India a week prior to deadly crash.

Remember India suspended contracts of Celebi Airport Services India Private Limited. Erdogan's duaghter is a major share holder there.

After the deadly crash there were reports of Air India facing trouble, emergency landing and so on.

It created mistrust among people and passengers prefered IndiGo more.

Now comes the second twist in the tail.

Is Turkey the one behind all this? Answer is yes but not alone.

It is again just a front to do the execution.

Remember....Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 10, 2025
Something is not adding up.

Large scale GPS spoofing reporting coupled of days back.

ISI operatives arrested in Gujarat.

Now tons of explosives found with doctors in Faridabad.

What if the GPS “spoofing” around Delhi Airport last week wasn’t just a random tech glitch… but part of a larger counterintelligence game?Image
Image
The timing is too sharp to ignore because:
1. Visit of Israeli PM Netanyahu
2. Visit of Russian President Putin in December.
3. Preceded by Series of NOTAMs across India
4. Now back to back arrests and 2900KG explosive

In recent days, Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA), Delhi’s busiest hub, saw an unusual spike in navigation disturbances. Articulated in news reports: fake GPS signals — a phenomenon called “spoofing” — misled aircraft position systems within roughly 60 nautical miles of the airport.

At the same time, the main runway’s Instrument Landing System (ILS) had been temporarily withdrawn for upgrading to Category III status — meaning aircraft were more reliant than usual on satellite-based navigation.

Put together: a scenario where normal defences were weaker — and something tested India’s air-domain resilience.Image
What exactly was going wrong? Spoofing differs from jamming: instead of blocking signals, fake GPS transmissions make receivers believe they are somewhere they aren’t.

At IGIA, while ILS was offline for upgrade, aircraft were relying on RNP (Required Navigation Performance) which depends on GPS. Once GPS signals started getting manipulated up to 60 nm out, authorities flagged the risk. The gap between ground-aids and satellite-aids became a vulnerability — one that apparently adversaries or non-state actors tested.

There are many possibilities of what's going on behind the scene:Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 7, 2025
Alarm bells at Delhi Airport.🚨

Something unusual happening since last few days.

400 flights were ground for 2 hours.

Is "failed attempt" duringSCO summit on Modi still in action?

In the past few days, pilots arriving into IGI have reported odd GNSS behaviour: their navigation systems showing incorrect positions, altitudes or paths — clear signs of GPS spoofing, where fake satellite signals are beamed to confuse aircraft.

This is far more serious than a routine tech glitch: when approach paths are compromised, aircraft must divert or go manual...Image
Image
increasing workload for controllers, raising safety risk.

Add to this that IGI already had a partially limited landing system (ILS upgrade ongoing) and an easterly wind change forcing arrivals from the Dwarka side, and you get a perfect storm.

The message: the skies over India’s busiest airport just got a lot more hazardous not just from weather, but from cyber-physical interference.

WAS A VVIP THE TARGET — OR WAS IT A MESSAGE?
Delhi was handling heavy VVIP and election-related air movements (Bihar) with choppers, charters, and security flights crisscrossing the same corridors.

Combine that with a sudden string of spoof events and an ATC messaging failure that delayed hundreds of flights, and you have the anatomy of an intimidation campaign: create fear, force movement, paralyze decision-making.

We have every right to ask whether this was a message aimed at our leadership — recall the recent reporting and heated speculation around assassination plots and suspicious foreign footprints at international forums.

Allegations exist in the public domain; investigators must follow these leads openly, not petulantly dismiss them. Treat this as potential state-level coercion by hostile proxies until proven otherwise.

THE NEW BATTLEFIELD IS SIGNALS — NOT JUST STRIPES.Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 15, 2025
Pakistan's Afghanistan Crisis: What Orchestrated it?

To eliminate TTP chief?

Absolutely NOT.

Then?

There are multiple factors including Op Sindoor.

This conflict can go longer than what it seems.

Read this thread till the end.Image
Image
Pakistan’s cross-border strikes into Afghanistan can't be understood simply as counterterrorism.

Domestically, Islamabad is facing escalating unrest among the Baloch and Pashtun populations protests, demands for rights, accusations of enforced disappearances, economic neglect.

The army’s image, once almost uncontested, is under pressure as the primary “institution” holding the country together.

By projecting external threats, the civil-military complex seeks to reassert its indispensability.

The Afghan front ....Image
...becomes the dramatic stage for showing “we are protecting the nation,” even as discontent grows at home in structurally marginalized regions.

There is also a palpable desire in Pakistani leadership to demonstrate loyalty to Washington.

The talk of reclaiming Bagram Airbase by the US under Trump has drawn regional concern. By engaging in high-stakes military operations in Afghanistan, Pakistan appears to be indicating that it is still a willing security partner, able to act militarily, share intelligence, and tighten cross-border pressure.

In doing so, Islamabad may hope for political, financial, intelligence or diplomatic rewards from the US. The base issue is symbolic of US strategic priorities in South Asia and China’s growing influence.Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 12, 2025
Pakistan is about to serve POJK on platter to India.

Modi-Shah-Doval had pressed panic button back in 2019.
Dont forget Doval's work in China.

Pahalgam Attack and Op Sindoor made it worse.

Read this thread to understand how Greed, Power and Religion making Pakistan explode👇Image
Image
Pakistan is breaking from within.

Economic collapse, militant violence, and political greed have torn apart what once held it together.

Religion no longer unites, the army no longer commands respect, and foreign powers are pulling its strings.

The fall began in 2019 when India revoked Article 370. That single act shattered Pakistan’s Kashmir dream and stripped its ideological core.

Since then, every desperate move to regain relevance has only dragged it deeper into isolation and internal decay.Image
The 2019 abrogation of Article 370 ended Pakistan’s moral claim over Kashmir.

Decades of propaganda collapsed overnight. The country that built its identity on “Kashmir Banega Pakistan” was left speechless.

Even Muslim nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia chose trade with India over solidarity with Pakistan.

That humiliation cracked the myth that Islam alone could sustain national unity.

From that moment, Pakistan began its slow implosion. It was no longer the voice of the Muslim world, just another struggling state seeking attention in global politics.Image
Read 16 tweets

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