Bolton: Putin is testing us, seeing if he can claim it was an accident, fog of war, to test our resolve. It doesn’t mean war follows now.
We’ve been misled 3.5 years by fear of wider war. If Russia had better assets, why not use them in Ukraine instead of endless casualties? 1/
Bolton: It's hard to believe this was an accident. The drones launched from Belarus hit Poland, not Ukraine. This looks like a NATO test.
What happens in Ukraine affects U.S. and NATO security, so support for Ukraine is justified and must continue. 2/
Bolton: As we look for stronger sanctions, Europe and the U.S. must abandon the price cap plan that let Russian oil flow while trying to drive down revenues.
It was a stupid idea from the start. We're going to go after Russian oil and gas, go after it. 3/
Ukraine restructured its army, establishing a 3rd Army Corps in March 2025. It's planned to reach 40,000 troops with the 3rd Assault Brigade as its core - New Lines.
The corps puts brigades under one command, retrains them near front and uses NATO-style veteran-led training. 1/
The 3rd Assault Brigade, founded by Azov veterans, built its reputation in Bakhmut and Avdiivka. It is considered one of Ukraine’s most professional units and now anchors the new corps. 2/
Kyiv moved to corps-level command after repeated failures of coordination. In April 2024, a brigade handover at Ocheretyne collapsed, letting Russia seize 3 miles of territory in hours. 3/
Putin gave orders from a fortified underground bunker, using encrypted “special comms”.
From there, in March 2023, he approved to arrest Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and later trade him for Vadim Krasikov, an FSB assassin jailed in Germany - The Times. 1/
Krasikov is an FSB officer who shot dead a Chechen commander in Berlin near a café called All You Need Is Love. A German court gave him life sentence.
Putin calls him a “patriot” and and once even fired weapons with him at a shooting range. 2/
Putin relied on Major General Vladislav Menschikov, head of the FSB’s First Service, to run the operation.
Menschikov had earlier overseen the arrest of basketball star Brittney Griner and her swap for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. 3/
After Poland closed its border with Belarus, Russia launched 19 drones — the largest breach of NATO airspace since 1949. One crashed 300 km deep into Poland. – The Economist.
PM Tusk: “closest to open conflict since WWII.”
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Polish and Dutch F-35s shot down several drones overnight Sept 9–10. Airports shut down.
President Karol Nawrocki: “an unprecedented moment in NATO and Poland’s history.” Article 4 was invoked for immediate consultations.
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Drones entered hours before Russia’s Zapad exercises in Belarus, set for Sept 12. On paper: 13,000 troops.
In 2021: ~200,000. Russia invaded Ukraine five months later. Tusk ordered the Belarus border closed; drones came anyway.
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Q: Western troops in Ukraine — we ignore Putin’s red line?
Rutte: Putin started the war unprovoked. Trump is trying to break the deadlock, and NATO’s 5% spending with U.S. weapons and sanctions show seriousness. 1/
Q: Putin said West provoked war, Russia can try peacefully or militarily.
Rutte: Russia’s economy is failing, and Putin’s quick-victory plan collapsed.
Ukrainians resist, and Zelenskyy is ready to negotiate with security guarantees if Putin shows up. 2/
Q: Are you, Trump, and the West naive on talks?
Rutte: I dealt with Putin many times. Putin will only negotiate when he chooses, repeating old claims against Ukraine’s sovereignty until then.
The West must keep Ukraine armed and push him under Trump’s leadership. 3/