Andrew A. Michta Profile picture
Sep 11 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🧵Yesterday’s Russian drone attack against #Poland (attack, not “intrusion”) put a spotlight on how ineffective and increasingly irrelevant the legacy institutional framing that undergirds @NATO and Europe’s security has become. With each passing hour the cognitive gap grows. 1/9
I watched the statements by @NATO SecGen and #EU’s von der Leyen with an eerie feeling that their resounding rhetoric condemning Russia’s aggression (yet again) bore yet again no connection to the reality of what will--or rather will not—happen going forward. Shadow boxing. 2/9
Being fat is not the same as being strong. Over past 30yrs the West has lost most of its strength to act in its own defense. Amidst never-ending debates, think tank panels on the “rules based int’l order” and solemn assertions about defending democracy, our elites look weak. 3/9
Rome didn’t collapse because it had a higher standard of living than the barbarians. It collapsed because the borders were open, the barbarians had hatchets and enjoyed using them, while Romans debated. We’re losing because we no longer are willing to accept risk and fight. 4/9
We tell ourselves that we have the best military, the best technology, etc. etc. etc. Look around you. America just learned that in Charlotte NC a thug murdered a young girl stabbing her to death. No reason. Most importantly, nobody on that train lifted a finger to stop it. 5/9
And Poland, a @NATO country was just attacked by RUS with some 20 drones entering its airspace. No reaction other than invoking Article 4 of the Washington Treaty to “consult with allies.” Again, nobody is lifting a finger while we congratulate ourselves we didn’t “escalate.” 6/9
I bring up these two seemingly unrelated events to make this point: Cowardice and appeasement go hand in hand. We’ve disarmed our culture through decades of educational brainwashing to a point where we can no longer stand up for what’s right. We’ve become food for predators. 7/9
I know of no case in history when deterrence was restored without taking risks and fighting. I wonder what Putin or Xi think as they look at our effete politicians in their tailored suits. How did we end up with the managers we have today masquerading as the West’s leaders. 8/9
“Western leaders must communicate to their people that if we want to preserve our prosperity going forward, we will have to fight for it.” I wrote this a year ago—stand by every word. And the last few days made me even more pessimistic than before. 9/End politico.eu/article/intern…

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More from @andrewmichta

Sep 6
🧵Following the successful meeting between POTUS @realDonaldTrump and PL President @NawrockiKn there is a potential new opening to redefine regional security architecture of @NATO’s Northeast Corridor (Nordic/Scandinavian/Baltic/Central European region). It’ll require work. 1/6
This will require a new strategic vision and a new level of operational defense cooperation among @NATO allies in the region, leveraging each country’s absolute/relative strength under the alliance umbrella, and meshing it with US high-end capabilities and high-end enablers. 2/6
As the key @NATO defense hub in the East, Poland should play a key role. Leveraging the momentum from President @NawrockiKn Washington visit, Warsaw should prioritize building a new format for political-military integration with Norway, Sweden, Finland and the Baltic States. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Aug 30
🧵This post won't be about int'l security affairs, but about what the here and now at home. I recently drove through the American South on my way to Florida. A few observations that are frankly painful: This young Republic feels old, and the once proud middle class looks poor.1/9
America's interstate system is in disrepair. The same goes for our power grid, with power lines hanging from crooked wooden poles even as you drive through suburbs in major cities. Roads are potholed and patched up, here and there; often not. There is trash along the highway. 2/9
At the same time, I encountered wonderful people in small communities where I stopped for the night - hardworking Americans struggling to make ends meet at service jobs, as manufacturing and processing has been offshored to Asia, gutting communities and making the young leave.3/9
Read 9 tweets
Aug 23
🧵How many times is it worth repeating that Putin is not interested in an armistice or a peace deal to end the war in #Ukraine? I have little patience left for the breathless speculation in US and European media about what it may/may not take to get the Russians to the table.1/5
So please get this: As long as Putin sees the West as weak and fractured, afraid to take risks and confront him unflinchingly, he will keep pushing and laughing all the way to the proverbial bank. How about some ethical principles and moral clarity that we profess daily? 2/5
How many more times will we dress up appeasement and capitulation as “political realism”? When will we recognize that what Putin calls “@NATO moving East” is actually former Russian colonies moving West to be free of Russian imperial domination and decades of oppression? 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Aug 6
🧵I just listened to another economist bemoan the end of the global free system that the United States has helped to build over eighty years. I'm not a fan of tariffs and the jury is still out as to whether the Trump administration's approach will work. But let's be honest. 1/6
The idea that we have lived in an open global marketplace is bizarre to say the least, considering the amount of regulatory and state intervention we have witnessed over the years. Communist China in particular has been predatory mercantilist in its trade policy for decades. 2/6
This global "free fair trade" was neither free nor fair. It was predatory on the part of Beijing while US corporations allowed themselves to be extorted for intellectual property in exchange for labor arbitrage and market access. All the while, America's heartland was gutted.3/6
Read 6 tweets
Jul 28
🧵The US-EU trade deal has generated a lot of talk on X about how this is a humiliation for the #EU, how it should be a wake up call for Europe, how Europe must assert itself, etc. My take is that if anything it should finally put paid to all the talk about the EU as “Europe.”1/5
The European Union is a treaty-based organization, not a nation-state that can function as a unitary actor in the international system. It has been remarkably successful as a framework for integrating Europe’s markets and providing regulatory structures (sometimes excessive).2/5
But despite all the talk about EU foreign and security policy, Europe remains a continent of nations with distinct histories and cultures, and with regionally-focused threat perceptions and national interests. This should be the starting point of any discussion of EU policy. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Jun 8
🧵There is a race among European capitals as to which country will take the point as the lead in relations with the United States. In Europe's capitals one hears plenty of talk about the unified EU, but the Trump administration sees it differently, preferring bilateralism. 1/10
Paris, London and most recently Berlin have registered their desire to take that spot, each country's leader having visited the White House with a message of cooperation and underscoring how important transatlantic relations are, both when it comes to the economy and defense.2/10
This is in stark contrast to contrast to various and sundry declarations about the imperative of Europe's "independence" from the United States heard in Berlin and Brussels, or the perennial talk about "strategic autonomy" heard in Paris in different permutations each month. 3/10
Read 10 tweets

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