We are short $FFAI because we think YT Jia (founder and CEO) has based its latest pump on fake orders, a rebadged Chinese minivan, and a tsunami of lies meant to induce retail to buy right before a massive flood of new shares are authorized. Between dilution, YT’s legal problems (SEC, DOJ, Bankruptcy Court, etc..) and its track record of abysmal failure ($4.4b spent with 17 cars delivered) we think $FFAI will go back to being a penny-stock on its way to delisting.
2/ $FFAI's stock shot up after Nature’s Miracle ($NMHI) announced 1,000 preorders in a deal worth up to $100 million. We think this is fake because $NMHI has almost no money; less than $10,000 in cash and its market cap is ~$2 million. Turns out YT is former classmates with $NMHI CEO Tie (James) Li.
3/ Some of the other B2B preorders for the EV minivan are with “paid co-creation partners.” Former employees revealed to us that each of $FFAI's co-creator deals for its previous vehicle cost them something like a million dollars because they were paying the co-creator to buy the car.
4/ We believe a significant portion of $FFAI's financing has been fake or misleading. In May 2023 it claimed $100 million in financing from V W Investments and Metaverse Horizon, which have nothing to do with Volkswagen or $META. Instead V W Investments was founded by YT’s neighbor, and Metaverse Horizon’s location is an office in Beijing that has never been leased, and is apparently led by a 76-year-old farmer in China from YT's villiage. Its main investor is FF Global (YT and other insiders). We think YT has ultimately been the source of much of $FFAI’s financing.
5/ How does YT have money to fund $FFAI after emerging from bankruptcy? We think he hid assets from the bankruptcy court. For example, a former executive told us that YT and his “mafia” use several homes on the CA coast, but he was told that YT does not “own” them, instead the butlers and maids own them *wink wink*
6/ The multi-million-dollar CA homes are peanuts compared to the shares of Lucid stock we believe YT hid from the bankruptcy court. We believe he committed bankruptcy fraud when he told the court in a 2020 filing that he had no interest in Blitz Technology Hong Kong Co. Ltd (“Blitz”). One month later, Blitz, controlled by a close associate of YT’s, transferred 4.5 million shares on his behalf to one of his creditors, and the creditor agreed to remain the creditor of record and discreetly work on YT’s behalf in resolving the bankruptcy. We calculate YT may have hidden Lucid stock from the court that ultimately became worth over $1 billion.
7/ One day after disclosing its Wells Notice, $FFAI unveiled its FX Super One—which appears to just be a Chinese-made EV minivan from Great Wall Motors with the $FFAI logo swapped out. Reportedly, even the small decorative elements are the same. One reporter at the unveiling called the presentation “incomprehensible bullshit.”
8/ Perhaps the biggest lie YT has told the market is that he has only just returned to the CEO position, after ostensibly stepping down in 2019. We had conversations with multiple former employees who told us YT controlled the company though a Chinese “mafia.” He would talk the most and sit in the biggest chair at meetings. YT and his “mafia” would apparently meet on Sundays so YT could set the agenda for $FFAI
9/ According to a former employee YT and his mafia often did things that were way out of bounds: “they did things that were not even gray area, I mean it was black area stuff that they were told they can't do, and they would continue to do it.” A former finance employee at $FFAI told us that YT tried to pressure him to change projected financial results, without any justification apart from “these numbers would be better.”
10/ A lawsuit filed by $FFAI's former General Counsel (GC) alleged YT induced him to work there by falsely claiming they closed $2 billion in investments from Evergrande. The GC investigated numerous claims that YT was using the company as “an immigration farm” fostering a hostile work environment where “employees were pressured to hire attractive women for Mr. Jia.” When the GC recommended YT step back as the decision maker in 2018, “Mr. Jia became enraged, openly cursed [the GC] and threatened him.” YT’s associates then tried to access the GC’s house dressed as “plumbers” on numerous occasions.
We are short $CTO because we believe its dividend is unsustainable and management has deceived investors with a bullshit AFFO, a sham loan, and false and misleading statements about its tenants. It's like $CTO is aiming to be the $RILY of REITs. Our analysis shows a $38M cash shortfall in paying dividends since 2021 and dilution to make up for it, with shares outstanding increasing 70% since 2022 wolfpackresearch.com/items/cto%3A-t…
$CTO's cash from operations over the TTM has been ~$17m a quarter, but total dividend obligations are >$14m and recurring capex was ~$5.7m per quarter 2023-2024. Cash is just $8.4m. We don’t think that math works, and investors can soon expect something dilutive—dilution , debt, an inopportune property sale to make ends meet
The linchpin of management’s deception is a manipulative definition of Adjusted Funds From Operation (AFFO) that exclude recurring capex, unlike ALL their shopping center REIT peers, tricking investors into hopping onto this dilution merry-go-round while management collects bonuses—yes exec bonuses are based on $CTO's made-up AFFO
1/ We’re short $UFPT, a surgical drape manufacturer that is having their first conference call in 32 years according to Bloomberg. We think this is going to be a bad call for investors. The hot topic? Probably $UFPT's deteriorating relationship with $ISRG, its largest customer, responsible for 96.5% of $UFPT’s organic growth in 2024. Apparently, $IRSG's IR isn’t talking until after $UFPT's call. Think that is concerning? See below
Read the full report and Disclaimer
2/ We spoke with $ISRG's IR team in Q1, $ISRG's IR team boasted to us that they had already begun insourcing 10% of surgical drapes from their Mexican plant and planned to ramp more production there. This insourcing contributed to turning y/y growth negative in Q4 for $UFPT, we expect it to have gotten much worse in Q1.
3/ $ISRG isn’t just insourcing in Mexico, it has built a new facility in Bulgaria with plans to insource drapes there as well. We discovered these plans in a post by an $ISRG executive and verified it via a site visit by a private investigator. We suspect $UFPT's drape production could ultimately be completely replaced by this facility in Bulgaria
We are short $MCY because we found how many home and landlord polices $MCY had in the zip codes hit by the CA wildfires as of June 2024 due to an obscure 4,000-page rate filing. For example: $MCY insured 385 homes and 31 landlord policies in Pacific Palisades (90272).
We estimate $MCY’s gross losses from the LA fires will exceed $2b, far more than their $1.3bn in reinsurance.
Using $MCY's rate filings, we see $MCY had ~1,300 home and landlord policies in force as of June 2024 between Altadena and the Pacific Palisades.
In our report we show where investors can access CA rate filings. This should give investors a way to assess damages from these and any future wildfires
$MCY's exposure to these zip codes appears to be outsized. CA’s 3rd largest home insurer, CSAA, had just 6 home policies in Altadena and Pacific Palisades. The largest, State Farm reportedly dropped ~500 policies in Pacific Palisades in 2024, starting after $MCY's filing in June. $MCY may have picked up many of these policies as they had also just taken on Tokio Marine’s.
1/ We warned everyone about $MAX and the FTC investigation, but those that didn’t listen are getting a nasty surprise as the FTC is seeking injunctive and monetary relief and civil penalties that amount to significantly more than $MAX’s existing liquidity and financial resources, which appears to be ~$77m. In our opinion, this confirms the worst-case scenario for $MAX, which is that the FTC is hellbent on destroying $MAX as they did with Simple Health and Benefytt.
2/ Three months ago, $MAX CEO Steve “Straight Cash” Yi proclaimed on MAX 2Q earnings call that $MAX was in compliance with all ethical rules and regulations following an internal investigation. The FTC disagrees and proposes to seek injunctive and monetary relief and civil penalties which significantly exceed MAX’s existing liquidity and financial resources, which consists of $32m in cash and $45m on their debt facility according to the Q.
3/ There is potential collateral damage here too for White Mountain ($WTM). They own 32% percent of $MAX. They control $MAX’s board and $MAX’s Steve Yi even sits on $WTM’s board. They participated in the so called “independent investigation” that exonerated $MAX three months ago, after our report warned investors of many of the issues that have now been brought up by the FTC. Let’s dig in a little...
1/ We are short $SWVL because large sections of this so-called “technology” company’s website have been non-functional for months. Our on-the-ground due diligence in Egypt, where SWVL generated 92% of its FY ’23 revenue, reveals that its primary operations are grinding to a halt as $SWVL’s finances continue to circle the drain toward insolvency.
2/ In our opinion, SWVL has overpromised and undelivered to investors, leaving the company on the verge of bankruptcy. The company’s business model has clearly failed as the company has accumulated losses of $329 million. With just $2.9 million in cash and cash equivalents, we strongly believe as my British friend, Freddy would say, that they are proper fucked. We do not believe SWVL will make it to 2025 without significant dilution. Potential downside—100%.
3/ We hired an investigator to apply as a driver for SWVL in Cairo but the company never even responded to the request. This lack of response suggests they are not hiring new drivers—not a great sign.
1/ $MAX’s CEO Steven Yi was grandstanding during the earnings call about how “horrible” it was for us to publish our findings on MAX. We think this is a bit rich coming from a guy whose firm has spent years using fraudulent ads and deceptive websites to drive leads to scammers like Simple Health. We weren’t the first ones to make that connection, it was the FTC.
2/ Yi also said they are hopeful the investigation will be over sooner rather than later. And maybe after 18 months, it is finally wrapping up. But that may not be great news for $MAX shareholders, who should ask why Yi and the board recently rewrote the company rules to make themselves immune from liability for breaches of fiduciary duty to the fullest extent of the law.
3/ $MAX’s Yi touted how an “internal investigation” done over the course of a few weeks by some rubber stamp law firm concluded MAX is in compliance with all applicable rules and regulations. No one cares! Especially when there is a real ongoing investigation by the FTC. A major portion of our report was just showing what we thought this investigation was about and what that might mean for $MAX considering similar actions by the FTC.