India saved $17 billion by buying Russian oil.
Now Trump wants revenge.
“No trade deal until you stop.”
50% tariffs. $15B export losses.
The twist?
In 2022, the US asked India to buy it.
Here's the full breakdown of this wild U-turn 👇
Now Trump wants revenge.
“No trade deal until you stop.”
50% tariffs. $15B export losses.
The twist?
In 2022, the US asked India to buy it.
Here's the full breakdown of this wild U-turn 👇
👇 What you’ll learn from this thread:
• Why Trump is punishing India now
• How India saved $17B (with data)
• What’s really at stake for our economy
• India’s 5 real options in this geopolitical war
• What happens if India gives in or doesn’t
• Why Trump is punishing India now
• How India saved $17B (with data)
• What’s really at stake for our economy
• India’s 5 real options in this geopolitical war
• What happens if India gives in or doesn’t
📢 Before we begin…
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1️⃣ 💣 How India saved $17B
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, oil prices soared.
Western sanctions kicked in.
India made a bold move:
Start importing Russian oil at deep discounts up to 30% cheaper.
Result?
✅ From <1% to 44% of imports
✅ $17 billion saved from April 2022–June 2025
But here’s where it flips…
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, oil prices soared.
Western sanctions kicked in.
India made a bold move:
Start importing Russian oil at deep discounts up to 30% cheaper.
Result?
✅ From <1% to 44% of imports
✅ $17 billion saved from April 2022–June 2025
But here’s where it flips…
2️⃣ 🤯 Hypocrisy Exposed: The US wanted this
In 2022-23, the US literally said:
“We need buyers under the price cap. Help us reduce Putin’s profits.”
US Ambassador Eric Garcetti:
“We wanted someone to buy Russian oil under cap. India helped.”
India obliged.
Now Trump’s team says:
“We’ll crash your exports unless you stop.”
In 2022-23, the US literally said:
“We need buyers under the price cap. Help us reduce Putin’s profits.”
US Ambassador Eric Garcetti:
“We wanted someone to buy Russian oil under cap. India helped.”
India obliged.
Now Trump’s team says:
“We’ll crash your exports unless you stop.”
3️⃣ 📉 Trump’s Revenge: Tariff Armageddon
In August 2025, Trump imposed:
⚠️ 50% tariffs on Indian goods
⚠️ Extra 25% tariff linked to oil imports
⚠️ Pushing EU + G7 to do the same
⚠️ Calling India “a vowel between Russia and China”
US Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick:
“No deal unless India stops buying Russian oil.”
In August 2025, Trump imposed:
⚠️ 50% tariffs on Indian goods
⚠️ Extra 25% tariff linked to oil imports
⚠️ Pushing EU + G7 to do the same
⚠️ Calling India “a vowel between Russia and China”
US Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick:
“No deal unless India stops buying Russian oil.”
4️⃣ 📊 Data Drop: India’s Russian Oil Surge
Before the Ukraine war in 2022, less than 1% of India’s oil came from Russia.
Now?
By mid-2025, Russian crude makes up over 44% of India’s total imports nearly 2 million barrels per day.
In value terms:
- In 2024, India bought $52.7 billion worth of Russian oil.
- In just the first half of 2025, it's already at $25–30 billion.
- And in September 2025, imports are still increasing.
Despite shrinking discounts, India continues buying more.
Why?
→ It’s still cheaper.
→ It stabilizes inflation.
→ It guarantees energy supply in volatile global markets.
This isn’t a loophole.
It’s a lifeline.
Before the Ukraine war in 2022, less than 1% of India’s oil came from Russia.
Now?
By mid-2025, Russian crude makes up over 44% of India’s total imports nearly 2 million barrels per day.
In value terms:
- In 2024, India bought $52.7 billion worth of Russian oil.
- In just the first half of 2025, it's already at $25–30 billion.
- And in September 2025, imports are still increasing.
Despite shrinking discounts, India continues buying more.
Why?
→ It’s still cheaper.
→ It stabilizes inflation.
→ It guarantees energy supply in volatile global markets.
This isn’t a loophole.
It’s a lifeline.
5️⃣ 🔥 Scroll Stopper: India’s Top 3 Suppliers
Here’s who fuels India now:
🇷🇺 Russia → 44%
🇮🇶 Iraq → 20%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia → 15%
Despite pressure, India is doubling down on Russian oil.
Why?
→ Still cheaper
→ No political strings
→ Helps reduce inflation
Here’s who fuels India now:
🇷🇺 Russia → 44%
🇮🇶 Iraq → 20%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia → 15%
Despite pressure, India is doubling down on Russian oil.
Why?
→ Still cheaper
→ No political strings
→ Helps reduce inflation
6️⃣ 💥 Trigger:
Most analysts say: “Just stop buying Russian oil.”
But if India stops tomorrow?
→ Global oil prices could rise 10–15%
→ Domestic fuel prices jump
→ Voter backlash before state elections
→ Putin tightens military exports
This isn’t just economics. It’s survival.
Most analysts say: “Just stop buying Russian oil.”
But if India stops tomorrow?
→ Global oil prices could rise 10–15%
→ Domestic fuel prices jump
→ Voter backlash before state elections
→ Putin tightens military exports
This isn’t just economics. It’s survival.
7️⃣ 🧱 Real Story: Jaishankar's Mic Drop Moment
When asked about pressure from the US…
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said:
“We will do what is best for our people. Not anyone else’s agenda.”
His calm but firm line broke the internet.
X trended:
#IndiaNotForSale
#SovereigntyFirst
When asked about pressure from the US…
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said:
“We will do what is best for our people. Not anyone else’s agenda.”
His calm but firm line broke the internet.
X trended:
#IndiaNotForSale
#SovereigntyFirst
8️⃣ 📉 Example: How Exports Will Get Hit
The US is India's largest export market.
In 2024 alone:
🇮🇳→🇺🇸 $190 billion in trade
Top exports:
- Pharma
- Textiles
- Refined petroleum (some from Russian oil)
With 50% tariffs:
India risks 20–30% drop in exports = $15B loss
The US is India's largest export market.
In 2024 alone:
🇮🇳→🇺🇸 $190 billion in trade
Top exports:
- Pharma
- Textiles
- Refined petroleum (some from Russian oil)
With 50% tariffs:
India risks 20–30% drop in exports = $15B loss
9️⃣ 📈 Stat Blast: The Real Cost of This War
Let’s break it down clearly:
India saved $17 billion by buying discounted Russian oil between April 2022 and June 2025.
But Trump’s tariffs?
They threaten to wipe out $10–15 billion every year from Indian exports especially pharma, textiles, and refined fuels.
Add to that:
→ Up to 1.5 million job losses
→ Potential 0.5%–1% drop in GDP
→ Thousands of MSMEs at risk
We call this the Oil Trap Doctrine:
- Save money... get punished.
- Buy expensive oil... go broke.
- Either way - India pays the price.
Let’s break it down clearly:
India saved $17 billion by buying discounted Russian oil between April 2022 and June 2025.
But Trump’s tariffs?
They threaten to wipe out $10–15 billion every year from Indian exports especially pharma, textiles, and refined fuels.
Add to that:
→ Up to 1.5 million job losses
→ Potential 0.5%–1% drop in GDP
→ Thousands of MSMEs at risk
We call this the Oil Trap Doctrine:
- Save money... get punished.
- Buy expensive oil... go broke.
- Either way - India pays the price.
🔟 🧠 Framework: India’s 5 Strategic Options
🇷🇺 Defiant Continuation → Keep buying oil. Save $$. Risk US trade war.
🛢️ Diversify Sources → Buy more from Saudis/Iraq. Lose some discount.
🤝 Phased Deal → Trade market access for slower cuts in oil.
⚔️ Retaliation → Tariffs on US dairy, agriculture.
☀️ Future Focus → Cut oil imports 20% via renewables by 2030
🇷🇺 Defiant Continuation → Keep buying oil. Save $$. Risk US trade war.
🛢️ Diversify Sources → Buy more from Saudis/Iraq. Lose some discount.
🤝 Phased Deal → Trade market access for slower cuts in oil.
⚔️ Retaliation → Tariffs on US dairy, agriculture.
☀️ Future Focus → Cut oil imports 20% via renewables by 2030
1️⃣1️⃣ ⚖️ Opposite World Tweet:
You shouldn’t reduce Russian oil to please the US.
You should increase it to protect the Indian voter.
Energy affordability wins elections.
Sovereignty boosts credibility.
Kneeling gets you… nothing.
You shouldn’t reduce Russian oil to please the US.
You should increase it to protect the Indian voter.
Energy affordability wins elections.
Sovereignty boosts credibility.
Kneeling gets you… nothing.
1️⃣2️⃣ 📅 Timing is Everything
Why this matters NOW:
⏰ US elections in 50 days
⏰ Trump-Modi talks set for November
⏰ India’s winter oil buying season starts
⏰ EU firms pressuring India on refinery sanctions
Every move now will ripple through 2026.
Why this matters NOW:
⏰ US elections in 50 days
⏰ Trump-Modi talks set for November
⏰ India’s winter oil buying season starts
⏰ EU firms pressuring India on refinery sanctions
Every move now will ripple through 2026.
1️⃣3️⃣ 💸 Real Example: Bharat Petroleum’s Strategy
BPCL official (Aug 2025):
“We’ll increase Russian oil by 10–20% in Sept.”
Why?
→ Even with smaller discounts ($5–10/bbl), it’s still cheaper
→ Secures supply chain stability
→ Helps meet festival season demand
BPCL doesn’t blink. Neither should India.
BPCL official (Aug 2025):
“We’ll increase Russian oil by 10–20% in Sept.”
Why?
→ Even with smaller discounts ($5–10/bbl), it’s still cheaper
→ Secures supply chain stability
→ Helps meet festival season demand
BPCL doesn’t blink. Neither should India.
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1️⃣5️⃣ What should India do next?
1️⃣6️⃣ 🗺️The Real Trade Triangle
Here’s the chain reaction nobody’s talking about:
1. 🇷🇺 Russia sells crude oil to India at a discount
2. 🇮🇳 India refines it into petrol, diesel, aviation fuel
3.🌍 India exports refined fuel to the US and EU
4. 🇺🇸🇪🇺 West imposes tariffs on India despite benefiting from it
In short:
India is stabilizing global fuel supply,
but is getting punished for helping.
That’s not diplomacy.
That’s economic double standards.
Here’s the chain reaction nobody’s talking about:
1. 🇷🇺 Russia sells crude oil to India at a discount
2. 🇮🇳 India refines it into petrol, diesel, aviation fuel
3.🌍 India exports refined fuel to the US and EU
4. 🇺🇸🇪🇺 West imposes tariffs on India despite benefiting from it
In short:
India is stabilizing global fuel supply,
but is getting punished for helping.
That’s not diplomacy.
That’s economic double standards.
1️⃣7️⃣ 🧠 Ripple Effect :
If India bends now, here’s what follows:
→ Next: Defense purchases from Russia get blocked
→ Then: Pressure to join US-China economic war
→ Finally: Strategic autonomy compromised
This isn’t about oil.
It’s about who decides India’s future.
If India bends now, here’s what follows:
→ Next: Defense purchases from Russia get blocked
→ Then: Pressure to join US-China economic war
→ Finally: Strategic autonomy compromised
This isn’t about oil.
It’s about who decides India’s future.
What hurts India more?
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