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More from @samuraipips358

Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Sep 9

No matter how strong a system with an edge you have, you still won't succeed 🧵

Many people still don't succeed, no matter how good their system is.
Here's why.
🧵1/5

2/5
Many assume a great strategy is enough to succeed, but it's not that simple.
If anything, what comes next is where it gets truly hard.

Even if you have a system with an edge, probabilistic by design, the reason it fails to work is simple.
Probability works through the Law of Large Numbers over a large sample size, and that requires your consistency.

When probability doesn't seem to work, it simply means the Law of Large Numbers isn't kicking in, and that happens because of one of two things.

- You lack consistency.
- The sample size isn't large enough for the Law of Large Numbers to operate.

In short, no matter what system with an edge you have, it only works through your sustained consistency over the long run.

3/5
Many people assume that once they have a system with an edge, staying consistent will be easy.
However, a system with an edge is not a "can't‑lose" system.

As long as you treat losses as "bad," you won't let probability do its job.
Because even the best strategies inevitably include losses and losing streaks, and if you treat losses as bad, you'll try to avoid them.

As a result, no matter how good your system is, you won't even be able to trade strictly according to its signals, and even if you manage it in the short run, sustaining it over the long run will be extremely difficult.

You likely won't blame yourself.
You'll decide "the system stopped working" or "the market changed" and start shopping for another one.
In other words, with the best of intentions, you end up abandoning consistency.

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Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Sep 7

“Elite traders have no emotions” is wrong 🧵

This misunderstanding is widespread.
The truth is not that they lack emotions.
They simply place value on different things.
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2/5
Elite traders are not emotionless.
They simply do not consider a single isolated loss to be bad.
This is not wishful thinking but something they understand completely, both logically and through experience.

If anything, they are convinced that cutting losses in line with their rules is what leaves profits in the end, and they place their value on whether they executed the process faithfully.

In that sense, they feel intense aversion and discomfort toward breaking rules or failing to execute the process faithfully.
Their emotions have not disappeared.
The emotions that arise have changed because what they value has changed.

3/5
Inexperienced traders place a great deal of value on wins and losses.
That is why their emotions swing violently with the outcome right in front of them.

Because they do not recognize other value systems, they assume elite traders have “eliminated emotions” or possess “extraordinary mental toughness.”

They may meditate or study emotional control techniques to remove emotions, but they do not realize that this is not a fundamental fix.

The intense emotions that wreck your trading do not appear because you lack emotional control.
They arise because you do not understand what trading is, you have not done the necessary preparation, you are using reckless position size, and you are trying to win every single trade in front of you.

No matter how many techniques you learn or how much mental toughness you build, if you keep playing a win-or-lose game without understanding trading and with poor preparation, nothing will change.

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Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Sep 6

Consider whether your actions actually let probability do its work 🧵

Probability is slow.
It only begins to work for those who can keep their discipline long before the results are visible, as if it were already in effect.
🧵1/5

2/5
Consistency is indispensable for probability to play out.

For example, even with a 40% win rate, a strategy with a strong risk‑reward profile can be profitable if you keep repeating it. (This is only an example, so the figure 40% has no special meaning, and I am not recommending a 40% win rate strategy, to be clear.)
Run a simple simulation and generate about 1,000 random trials at a 40% win probability, then look at the results.
You will see five straight losses happen frequently, and ten straight losses occur more often than you expect.
Even then, can you maintain consistency all the way through, as the simulation implies?

This is where trading is hard.
No matter how much edge there is, many traders overthink and fail to stay consistent to the end, and in the name of “improvement” they end up breaking that consistency.

3/5
Maintaining consistency is a skill in its own right.

In the end, trading hinges on this capability.
Every strategy will face losing streaks, and what you think, feel, and do during them is decisive.

In the end, no matter what happens, you must not change anything, and you must remain consistent.
If doubt or anxiety creeps in there, you will not stay consistent, and your trading will suffer.

That simply means you have not prepared enough to eliminate doubt.

Read 5 tweets

Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Sep 5

You are a part of the system that must stay consistent to let probability do the work 🧵

Peace of mind in trading doesn’t come from 'winning'.
It comes from knowing that every win and every loss is already accounted for in the edge you’ve prepared.
🧵1/5

2/5
Many people misunderstand what a trader’s job really is.

Your job is not to win the next trade.
Your role is to follow the rules of a strategy with an edge consistently across a large sample size, to build that large sample under the same conditions, and to let the law of large numbers surface the edge.
Your most basic yet most important role is to be part of the system and to keep doing the same thing again and again with consistency.

3/5
Most people can’t do this because their thinking is short-term and they want to win the trade right in front of them.
That urge is what makes trading hard.

You cannot control whether the next trade wins or loses.
Even a strong strategy loses, and even a careless entry can win.
But a strong strategy will be profitable over the long run.
Short-term results are influenced by randomness, but long-term results become reliable.

However, to make long-term results reliable, one condition must hold: do not change the conditions that define your large sample size.
Only under consistent conditions does the law of large numbers do its work.

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Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Sep 4

What monthly return should you aim for? 🧵

Most people care deeply about how much they can make in a month.
They also care about the monthly returns of other people’s strategies.
But ironically, it’s that focus on monthly return that keeps you from succeeding.
🧵1/5

2/5
I occasionally get questions like “What monthly percent should I aim for?”
But monthly return is not something you target.

Monthly returns vary with the risk each trader takes and the performance of the strategy.
On top of that, the number of trade opportunities is market‑dependent, and results over a short window like one month are heavily influenced by randomness.

Above all, “one month” is a human convenience, while probability doesn’t care about calendar periods.
It cares about sample size.

Thinking in terms of an arbitrary one‑month window contradicts probabilistic thinking.

As with USDJPY this August, which I trade, it’s common for a month to be mostly range‑bound with virtually no trade opportunities.
Even if that month offers few entries and you only take a handful of trades, it still gets treated as just another “one month.”
Plenty of people then opine on the win rate and performance of that tiny sample size within that month.

3/5
Don’t target a monthly percent.
Instead, trust the positive expectancy of a strategy validated on a large pre‑test sample size, and focus on compounding that expectancy over the long run.

Trading will never work if short‑term thinking, urges, and wishes overpower consistency.
In other words, as long as you’re fixated on “how much can I make,” you won’t succeed.

What you should be asking is whether you acted consistently and followed your rules today.

Following rules means being able to lose according to the rules, and to do nothing according to the rules when that’s the right decision.
If your strategy has an edge, results will follow as long as you do just that.

And “later” will be slower than you think.

Read 5 tweets

Yumi🌸

@samuraipips358

Sep 1

The rules exist "to lose by the rules" 🧵

Some say, "Since rules don’t win every time, you must break them." That’s wrong.
Rules keep conditions consistent, hand outcomes to probability, and let it work.
They are not for winning one-off trades in front of you.
🧵1/5

2/5
Another person said, "If following the rules meant you win them all, that would be a holy grail, and since no such thing exists, you need exceptions instead of following every rule," which is a total misread of trading and a sign they need to relearn probability.

Rules never guarantee a 100% win rate.
I have long said that "losing in accordance with the rules" is itself the edge.

A strategy with an edge is one that leaves profit when you keep generating wins and losses naturally by following the rules.
By definition, causing losses according to the rules is part of that edge.

The way your rules prescribe losing is what ensures profit in the aggregate.

3/5
Trying to win the trade in front of you is not a "game of probabilities."
It is a "game of wins and losses."

A "game of probabilities" means you keep your behavior consistent, apply the law of large numbers to a large sample size gathered under the same conditions, and extract the edge.
If your behavior is inconsistent, probability will not work.

Rules do not exist to win the trade in front of you.
They exist to keep your behavior consistent so that probability can work through the large sample size created by that consistency.
Understand this.

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