President of Finland, Stubb: It's not looking good. With the current regime and President Putin, I don't see a big change.
Nations that don't have a capacity to deal with their past have a very difficult time looking into the future. 1/
Stubb: This's imperialist DNA and an undertone in Russia that doesn't seem to go away.
Russia is built on empire. That's why Putin talks about the “Russkiy Mir,” the great Russia borders of the 18th cent, with one language, religion, and leader. 2/
Stubb: I'm not very hopeful about the future of Russia.
We thought that Russia and many other countries would just automatically revert to liberal democracy, but it didn't happen. 3/
Q: What made you go back to politics?
President of Finland, Stubb: Putin.
Had Russia not attacked Ukraine, I would not have run for president of Finland. 4/
Q: You grew up in an era where globalization was an opportunity, and now people are looking more inwards.
Stubb: True, but I was born into the Cold War, where there was a clear ideological split between the East and the West, authoritarian regimes and freedom. 5/
Stubb: When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, there was a basic assumption that the whole world was going to be a combination of liberal democracy, social market economy, and globalization. 6/
Stubb: But the turning point was not only 9/11 or the 2008 financial crisis but also Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2022.
We're now starting to see the change of a world order. 7/
Stubb: Power politics is back, fears of interest are back, and Russian imperialism is not gone, start adjusting.
We're living in a 1918, 1945, or 1989 moment in world history. We just don't know where the world is going to go. 8/
Stubb: A lot of Eastern European countries were right about Russia.
But we were all in the wave that Russia and China are going to become democracies. Technological advancement and freedom, people were expected to use it. 9/
Stubb: We want to deal with a world that we want to see, not with a world that actually exists.
Right now the pendulum is going towards transaction, nationalism, and bilateral relations. 10/
Stubb: We have to avoid the polarization of society. We're seeing some of it in the U.S., but not only there.
Finland is a small country, we can't have that. 11/
Stubb: The better you prepare, the less likely you're going to end up in a war.
We have 280k men and women who can be put at wartime, 62 F-18s, long-range missiles, and 64 F-35s.
We have the biggest artillery, larger than France and Germany combined. 12/
Q: The rest of Europe is not prepared?
Stubb: Many of them are. Many of them are waking up. We are increasing our preparedness in order to avoid the worst. 13/
Stubb on diplomacy: When I was with President Xi, I felt we had a very good and respectful conversation.
When I was playing golf with President Trump, we had a really good time. 14/
Stubb: I had a private dinner with President Zelenskyy and Olena Zelenska and my wife, Susanne.
Someone like Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who's gone through a war that no one wanted, and he is a normal human being. There's no glamour. 15X
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FT: Zelenskyy at Munich said he'd hold elections but only after two months of ceasefire and with security guarantees in place.
He's pushing back hard on US pressure to hold votes by May 15. 1/
Washington wants elections and a peace deal by mid-May, with security guarantees contingent on the broader settlement. Kyiv insists security guarantees must come before any peace deal is signed. 2/
White House is pressing — “hold presidential elections and a referendum on any peace deal by May 15 or risk losing US security guarantees entirely.” That's the ultimatum hanging over Zelenskyy in Munich. 3/
Xi Jinping purged 5 of 6 generals in China's top military body over past three years. He reaches back to Maoist tactics of "rectification."
Only two members left in Central Military Commission: Xi and Vice Chairman who oversees purges — The NYT. 1/
In January, Xi called on China to remember Yan'an, where Mao transformed guerrilla fighters into disciplined force through campaign of political terror that eliminated rivals and cemented his absolute authority. 2/
Last year 983,000 officials punished for violating party rules — highest number on record.
John Garnaut, Garnaut Global founder: "Xi believes he needs to build foundation of absolute ideological unity and personal loyalty for future battles." 3/
Finland Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen: Russia has most of its biggest strategic capabilities in nuclear, submarines, and long-range bombers in the Kola Peninsula area.
They are building new military facilities along our border, same as in the Cold War — United24. 1/
Kola Peninsula hosts most of Russia's sea-based strategic nuclear arsenal — submarines and long-range aviation assets.
Häkkänen: "It would be wise to watch the Arctic and build Arctic capabilities for deterrence. High North should have been treated as priority years ago." 2/
Finland's forces are "fully Arctic" and ready to share expertise with allies. Finland requested funding under $177.8b EU defense loan scheme.
$1.19b approved by European Commission last month. Big part of money will go to land forces: armored vehicles and drones. 3X
Hodges: Nobody believes that if Russia gets that last bit of Donbas they will be satisfied and stop.
I’ve listened to Putin, Medvedev. They haven’t backed down on anything. Why should anybody think that’s all they wanted? 1/
Hodges: I can’t imagine Putin admitting his war was a huge mistake. Maybe people say, “You are destroying us.” Or maybe he doesn’t know what’s going on.
For years we were told the ex-KGB officer is smart, playing three-dimensional chess. If he doesn’t know, that’s his fault. 2/
Hodges: Casualties don’t matter to Putin. What matters is whether he can stay in power and whether the economy can generate enough money to keep the war going.
That’s why destroying Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure is a good strategy. 3/
At Munich Security Conference world leaders declared post-1945 world order is dead — Ray Dalio.
Merz: "The world order as it has stood for decades no longer exists. We are in a period of great power politics. Freedom is no longer a given". 1/
Macron: Europe's old security structures tied to previous world order don't exist. Europe must prepare for war.
Rubio: We are in a new geopolitics era because the old world is gone. 2/
Ray Dalio: We are in Stage 6 part of the Big Cycle in which there is great disorder arising from a period where there are no rules, might is right, and there is a clash of great powers.
This is the stage where international relations follow the law of the jungle. 3/
Russia's foreign intelligence service planned military coup in Senegal.
Leaked documents show Moscow recruited local military figures to seize power and prepared political and logistical support for new regime — United24. 1/
After Prigozhin's death, Russia brought Wagner under direct control of foreign intelligence service.
76 internal documents from 2023-2024 show transfer of Wagner's assets to state structures. Key figures include Sergei Mashkevich, Sergei Klyukin, Artem Gorny. 2/
Russia created "African Political Science" with $750K monthly budget.
Uses St. Petersburg offices to coordinate operations in 30+ countries. Organization divided into political operations for lobbying and media operations for manipulative social media content. 3/