Chris Elmendorf Profile picture
Sep 13 24 tweets 8 min read Read on X
SB 79 Thread #1: Big Picture

In the fall of 2018, I first met @hanlonbt. I had recently posted "Beyond the Double Veto". He reached out & suggested we get coffee.

We argued about SB 827 (SB 79's oldest ancestor), which had died the previous winter.

1/24
I was skeptical.

I said, "Even if you manage to pass an SB 827 successor, it'll be like ADU law circa 1982. Local govs will destroy the projects w/ conditions of approval & CEQA."

He replied, "Have you seen what we did with the Housing Accountability Act?!"

/2
"Yeah," I answered, "your HAA reforms are great! Even so, they don't stop discretionary conditions of approval or CEQA. If I were in your shoes, I'd focus on strengthening the Housing Element Law. It's dumb in lots of ways, but it gets one essential thing right."

/3
me: "It lets cities plan for new housing where there's the least local resistance. And it recognizes that constraints on development are substitutes, and that there more ways to kill a project than we can even imagine.

So you need a state agency that can assess...

/4
the cumulative effect of local constraints & knock out new ones as they arise."

(An agency that operates, as @ezraklein & @DKThomp might say, as both a "bottleneck detective" and a bottlebrush.)

/5
Brian: "That's fine in theory, but HCD hasn't gotten the job done w/ housing elements. Why expect better in the future?"

me: "The Leg should strengthen HCD's authority & bolster its staff. It needs economists & former for-profit developers on staff too."

/6
Fast forward to 2025: SB 79, the winning successor to SB 827, is a fascinating synthesis of "Hanlon thought" & "Elmendorf thought" circa 2018, with a healthy dose of @ProfSchleich & @RickHills2's thinking too.

/7
SB 79 carries forward the original SB 827 idea of defining heights & floor-to-area ratios that cities must allow near transit. ("Hanlon thought")

/8
But it pairs this idea with far more robust protections against local evasion, while also giving cities flexibility to accommodate local political exigencies. Supervising it all will be ... @California_HCD. ("Elmendorf thought")

/9
What are those protections against evasion?

- 1. There's a pathway to ministerial review! If developer sets aside 10% of units for very low income households, they may opt into SB 35/423 streamlining, ***regardless of city's progress toward RHNA.***

/10 Image
- 2. If city wrongly disapproves a SB 79 project, it faces not only the usual HAA remedies (fee-shifting, etc.), but, in high-resource areas, mandatory fines of $10k+/unit. Fines will likely be higher if city has prior HAA violations or is found by court to be in bad faith.

/11 Image
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- 3. SB 79 borrows key language from Density Bonus Law, barring cities from applying any combination of regs that "physically preclude" project of authorized scale. SDBL case law interprets this phrase to protect project amenities that developer wants to provide. Big!

/12 Image
- 4. SB 79 authorizes cities to impose local standards" (including IZ) that do not, "alone or in concert, prevent achieving" the height, FAR, & density allowed by SB 79. This language is new and untested, but...

/13 Image
it *might* be interpreted as a financial-feasibility limitation on local zoning & development standards as-applied to SB 79 projects. (hang tight)

- 5. SB 79 bars local development standards that discriminate against SB 79 projects (as opposed to generally applicable rules)

/14 Image
- 6. Above all, SB 79 puts HCD in driver's seat. HCD decides how SB 79 capacity counts toward RHNA. HCD reviews local implementation / flexibility plans & determines whether they're compliant. And...

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starting in 7th cycle, it appears that local govs *will not be allowed to adopt a flex plan* unless HCD has determined that it "substantially complies" w/ SB 79.

(statutory text isn't as clear on this point as I would like)

/16 Image
The substance of the local flexibility plan proviso is elegant too.

It's a "zoning budget" a la @ProfSchleich & @RickHills2 (city may reallocate but not reduce SB 79 capacity), w/ additional "landmark budget" (city may landmark <= 10% of area), & ...

/17 Image
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bounds on how much capacity may be added to or removed from a site. (City may double a site's SB 79 capacity, or halve it, but can't escape SB 79 by zoning for a few skyscrapers.)

Sites at risk of wildfire or sea rise, or designated historic, are exempt from lower bound.

/18
Sen. Wiener did have to make some serious concessions to get SB 79 across finish line, including:

- unfunded BMR unit requirements + authorization for more local unfunded IZ

- exclusion of sites that had rent-controlled units w/o last 7 years

/19

- explicit permission for local govs to apply "any local demolition and antidisplacement standards" to SB 79-eligible parcels

- eliminating from bill's coverage "Tier 3" transit & all but a handful of urban counties (no SB 79 for Davis, alas!)

/20 Image
I am extremely worried about the savings clause for local demo & displacement standards.

What's to keep a city from banning any demo of any existing structure?

(I'll suggest some answers in the coming 🧵on legal Qs, but suffice it to say, there's not an easy answer)

/21
To wrap up: SB 79, though far from perfect, is an incredible achievement.

It was voted out of its first committee hearing over the objection of chair, a rarity.

It cleared *every single one* of its committee & floor votes w/o a single vote to spare.

/22
And the chair of Senate Housing, who opposed the bill initially & was pilloried by many (including me), ultimately voted to concur in Assembly's passage of the bill.

Her vote on the last day of the legislative session was SB 79's margin of victory.

/23


Substantively, SB 79's integration of "Hanlon thought," "Hills & Schleicher thought" and "Elmendorf thought" amounts to a very promising foundation for the administrative, legislative & judicial tinkering that will no doubt be necessary to realize the bill's great promise.

/end

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More from @CSElmendorf

Sep 4
Um, it's not like Abundance supporters have been hiding the ball on the mass public's populism.

1/4 Image
E.g., here's what I, @ClaytonNall & @stan_okl found & reported on who voters blame for high housing prices (screenshot)

link:

/2 aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…Image
And here's what we found & reported on their beliefs, preferences, and prioritization of housing policies. (Rent control and property-tax control are the big winners. Plus sticking it Wall St. investors.)

/3


link: nowpublishers.com/article/Detail…Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 21
The sick irony:
- L.A. started out on right foot w/ its housing element
- then L.A. produced an *awful* rezoning program + faux analysis to implement it
- now L.A. is telling the Legislature, "don't pass SB 79 unless it exempts cities w/ approved housing elements"

1/6
This @TernerHousing post explains what L.A. did right initially, ternercenter.berkeley.edu/research-and-p….

The key move was to reasonably account for sites probability of development during the planning period & discount nominal site capacity accordingly.

x.com/CSElmendorf/st…

/2
But when it came to rezoning, L.A. ditched the p(dev) adjustments in favor of made-up funny numbers.

L.A. also jacked up IZ, did nothing about Measure ULA, & effectively banned redevelopment of apartments.

@California_HCD gave the city a pass.



/3
Read 7 tweets
Aug 15
Very pleased that my paper w/ @ClaytonNall & @stan_okl, "The Folk Economics of Housing," has been published in the excellent new JEP symposium on housing markets. ⤵️

🧵/10. Image
link:

The tl,dr is that housing supply skepticism--which we operationalize as the belief that a large, positive, exogenous regional supply shock would not reduce home prices / rents locally--is pervasive, distinctive to housing, but weakly held.

/2 aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…Image
People give more internally inconsistent answers, within and across surveys, to questions about the price effects of housing supply shocks than to questions about other economic shocks / beliefs.

/3 Image
Read 11 tweets
Jul 25
Just read @vincent_rollet's incredible paper on effects of upzoning in NYC.

Wow, wow, wow!

If CA were a well-governed state, we'd be offering Meta-like pay to bring folks like Vincent into @California_HCD & @Cal_LCI.

🧵/16, with the highlights.
Vincent develops a parcel-level, gen-equilibrium model of development in NYC, accounting for parcel traits like size/value of existing uses, & estimating n'hood & endogenous amenities, wages, builder cost function, extensive & intensive margins of the redevelopment decision.

/2
He obtains results not only the effect of upzoning on housing-supply and prices, but also on the distribution of welfare gains/losses across the socioeconomic spectrum and as between current and future residents of NYC.

/3
Read 16 tweets
Jul 24
Here's the first of my two essays for @NiskanenCenter's "party of abundance" series. ⤵️

In the piece, @ProfSchleich & I argue that big-city YIMBYs should endeavor to forge a cross-issue, party-like faction & drive an urban quality of life agenda.

@GrowSF is the model.
🧵/24
The immediate response of many has been, "That's crazy! It's hard enough to win on housing."

/2

I get it. But hear us out. There are at least three good reasons for big-city YIMBYs to take on a wider range of issues.

/3
Read 25 tweets
Jul 15
Inspired by this great pod ⤵️ , in which another nationally prominent progressive says, "of course I agree w/ state & local YIMBYs on 99% of their agenda," here's a seven-item test. 🧵.

1/10
For each policy choice, state whether (A) or (B) is closer to your own views, even if neither one is exactly right.

/2
#1. A state law upzoning major streets, commercial areas & sites near transit for multifamily housing should...

A) require 15% of new units to be deed-restricted lower income housing

B) impose a BMR mandate only if its cost is offset w/equivalent tax breaks for developer

/3
Read 12 tweets

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