Thread by @RyanJ_Heath

Time to drop all my stats and fantasy takeaways from today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData!

1. After reports that the Patriots would change their backfield snap distribution…

TreVeyon Henderson saw just:

3/19 backfield carries
2/8 backfield targets
22% of weighted opportunities

2. After totaling only four rush attempts (one designed) in Week 1…

Drake Maye ran 10 times for 31 yards and a TD!

Maye’s 137.3 passer rating was also a career-best. This Dolphins’ defense is…something.

3. After Kayshon Boutte tied for the team lead in targets in Week 1 (8)...

He took a backseat, seeing only one target (though it was a TD) while Stefon Diggs and Rhamondre Stevenson took the lead (5 each).

No Patriots player has above a 17.5% target share through two games.

4. Today was only the fourth time Tyreek Hill has exceeded 100 receiving yards since the start of the 2024 season.

For comparison, he did that in 8 of 16 games during 2023.

Tua threw a ball 10 feet over his head when he was wide open on the Dolphins’ attempted comeback drive.

5. After playing only 7 snaps in Week 1, Cam Skattebo led the NYG backfield in rush attempts (11 of 17, 65%).

He is still the only Giants RB to receive a carry inside the 10-yard line (3 of 3) this season.

This is a top-30 RB moving forward, with upside to crack the RB2 ranks.

6. Javonte Williams’ bell cow usage continued. Through two weeks:

> 33 of 42 backfield carries (79%)

> At least an 8.8% target share in both games

But... Miles Sanders came in at the goal line and got the only carry inside the 5. Something to watch.

7. D’Andre Swift fumbled at the end of the 1st quarter. But he hasn't lost his bellcow role yet.

Kyle Monangai ended with 37% of backfield carries, but 6 of his 7 came on the final drive (mega-garbage time)

Swift is probably still an RB2 in any expected positive game scripts.

8. Rome Odunze looked awesome, leading the Bears with 7 catches for 128 receiving yards and 2 TDs.

He did so on a team-high 11 targets (33% target share).

Every single stat above set or tied Odunze’s career-high.

I will take the L, but at least we adjusted for DFS after Week 1

9. By my napkin-math (I’m sure this will vary in official numbers with penalties and such)...

The Lions’ offense averaged 8.8 yards per play in Week 2.

That’s up from 3.8 yards per play in Week 1, and compares to 6.3 in 2024.

The Packers have the best defense in the NFL.

10. Through two games:

Amon-Ra St. Brown: 16 targets

Jameson Williams: 9 targets

Williams got loose for a couple of big plays. But offseason speculation that he could take over as the Lions’ WR1 appears misguided.

https://x.com/RyanJ_Heath/status/1951686194405785647

11. As expected, Bhayshul Tuten took over the 33% backfield carry share he and Tank Bigsby had split last week.

He added a pair of screen catches, with one going for a TD.

Etienne maintained his lead role (58% backfield carry share + six targets).

Both Jaguars RBs ran for over 5.0 YPC.

This backfield should continue to be very productive, with Liam Coen being cracked and Trevor Lawrence struggling.

Etienne remains a top-18 weekly option. Tuten is one of the highest-upside handcuffs/RB2 stashes in fantasy.

12. It’s been rough sailing for Brian Thomas Jr. through two weeks, but the usage is there.

> Team-high 26% target share through two weeks

> Nearly scored at the back of the end zone today, but only got one foot in

> Dropped a would-be TD at the goal line

13. Joe Burrow left the game in the 2nd quarter.

But Jake Browning stepped in to average 7.5 YPA and 0.63 fantasy points per dropback (would have ranked ~QB4 last year).

He averaged 20.5 FPG and 0.55 FP/DB (~QB6) across 7 starts as a rookie at the end of 2023.

Burrow looks likely to miss some time.

The Bengals face tough defenses like the Broncos and Packers over the next month.

But for matchups against the Vikings (next week) and Lions (Week 5), Browning will be in streaming consideration.

14. Chase Brown was the only Bengals RB to record a touch or target in Week 2.

He failed to score despite three carries inside the 5-yard line, including getting vultured by a Browning sneak.

I remain very high on Brown as an RB1 - this usage will lead to points (eventually...)

15. Kyren Williams finally lost red zone work!

He evenly split carries with Blake Corum inside the 20-yard line (3 to 3), with Corum nabbing the TD and the only carry from inside the 5-yard line today.

If this continues, Williams will be no more than a weekly FLEX option.

Last year, 5.2 of his 17.0 FPG came from inside the 5.

16. That said, the Rams were trying to force the ball to Davante Adams in the end zone.

He led the team with a 39.4% target share.

Through 2 games, he and Puka Nacua have commanded 66% of the team’s targets

That is UP from 53% (for Nacua and Kupp in games together) in 2024

17. Through two games, Titans rookie WR Elic Ayomanor has only one fewer target than Calvin Ridley (21.3% target share)

He made an amazing one-handed catch on the sideline, and followed it up with a TD after Cam Ward extended a play with his legs

He shouldn't be left on waivers

18. We saw Alvin Kamara’s workload recover after a down Week 1. His 21.8 weighted opportunities led all RBs through the early window.

He received both backfield carries inside the 10-yard line and out-targeted Rashid Shaheed (6 to 5).

19. Still, this Saints’ target tree remained consolidated between Chris Olave (29.4% target share) and Juwan Johnson (26.5%).

Johnson is a TE1, at least until Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill return (and probably longer).

Olave is a weekly top-30 option.

20. 49ers’ target shares in their first game with Mac Jones / without George Kittle:

Jauan Jennings - 25.6%
Christian McCaffrey - 17.9%
Ricky Pearsall - 15.4%
Jake Tonges - 12.8%

I’ll no longer be downgrading Jennings for the holdout. Has top-24 upside rest of season.

21. James Cook has hit 17.0 or more weighted opportunities in both his games this year.

For comparison, he did that in only 3 of his 16 games in 2024.

Now, in 12 games the Bills have won by 6+ points since 2024, Cook averages 79 rushing YPG and 20.8 DraftKings FPG.

22. Breece Hall’s fantasy results were worse with the Jets struggling to move the ball against the Bills.

But his usage and backfield shares were better than in Week 1:

> 83% of backfield carries (up from 70%)

> 13.6% target share (up from 9.1%)

Braelon Allen did get the only carry inside the 10.

But Hall got the only one inside the 5 in Week 1. Still isn’t clear to me that Allen is the goal-line back.

I expect Hall to be a fringe RB1 in games the Jets are competitive, but more of a fringe RB2 in games they aren’t.

23. Zach Charbonnet again out-touched Ken Walker (15 to 14).

But Walker out-gained him…118 scrimmage yards to Charbonnet’s 10.

I’d love to victory-lap. But:

Charbonnet did get the only touch inside the 10-yard line (and now has 4 of 5 on the season).

24. Jaylen Warren broke a long 64-yard reception, but this backfield’s usage was virtually unchanged in Week 2. By weighted opportunity share:

Warren: 58% (56% last week)

Gainwell: 40% (42% last week)

Kaleb Johnson: muffed a kick and didn’t realize it was a live ball

25. In his first game, Quinshon Judkins led the Browns’ backfield with a 50% carry share, totaling 6.1 YPC.

But all three of his targets came on early downs, and he (9.3) actually finished behind Jerome Ford (11.8) in weighted opportunities.

Judkins is nowhere near RB2 territory yet. I’d want to see close to two-thirds of the carries and/or a confirmed goal-line role to get there.

That could easily happen in the Browns’ next positive game script. But they’re probably going to be TD underdogs their next 3 games.

26. Browns WR/TE target shares and FPG through two games:

Jerry Jeudy - 17.2% / 10.4
Cedric Tillman - 16.1% / 13.2
Harold Fannin - 15.1% / 11.7
David Njoku - 10.8% / 7.4

Keep in mind that they currently lead the NFL in dropbacks (93).

27. Through the afternoon games in Week 2, only two WRs have commanded at least a 35% target share in both of their team’s games.

Zay Flowers - 47.4% and 37.9%

Garrett Wilson - 36.4% in each game

28. RJ Harvey didn’t seem to earn more playing time after an efficient Week 1.

> Just 25% of backfield carries (same as Week 1)

> 2 targets (the same as both JK Dobbins and Tyler Badie)

29. 2nd-year WR Troy Franklin set career-highs in targets (9) and receiving yards (89), with both marks leading the team.

No other Bronco saw more than 4 targets.

The route share will be key in a Sean Payton offense where players constantly rotate, but this is one to watch.

30. After seeing only 3 targets on just a 48.5% route share in Week 1…

…Josh Downs led the Colts in targets (8) in Week 2.

Will want to see the 11/12-personnel rates, but the Colts may have just changed their packages in Week 1 because of Downs’ preseason injury.

That said, Tyler Warren’s addition to this receiving corps (79 receiving yards on 7 targets) and his emergence as an instant target-earner caps the upside of Downs and everyone else.

I don’t see more than a WR3 anywhere here, for now.

31. Rico Dowdle may have carved out a bit larger a role in this Panthers’ backfield.

He saw 38% of the backfield’s carries (up from 15% in Week 1).

He still had just 1 target to Hubbard’s 6, but he also saw both of the team’s carries inside the 10-yard line.

32. Trey Benson saw a career-high 6 targets (for a 24% target share).

That’s how many he had in all of 2024.

Will want to check the routes, but even with the step back in rushing work this week, I’d consider this a major boost to his contingent upside + dynasty value.

33. Though there wasn’t much production in this grind-it-out game, the Eagles’ target shares were back to normal in Week 2.

A.J. Brown - 36.4% (4.3% in Week 1)
Devonta Smith - 27.3% (13.0% in Week 1)

With Dallas Goedert out, nobody else was above 10%.

34. With Xavier Worthy out, it was Travis Kelce — not Hollywood Brown — who led the Chiefs with 6 targets.

Still, just 11.4 FPG through two games without Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy isn’t what Kelce drafters would have hoped to see.

That’s all I’ve got for you!

If you found this thread useful, make sure you’re following me (@RyanJ_Heath) and @FantasyPtsData for more.

Likes/RTs on the first tweet are also always appreciated.

Enjoy SNF!