Time to drop all my stats and fantasy takeaways from today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData!

1. After reports that the Patriots would change their backfield snap distribution…

TreVeyon Henderson saw just:

3/19 backfield carries
2/8 backfield targets
22% of weighted opportunities 2. After totaling only four rush attempts (one designed) in Week 1…

Drake Maye ran 10 times for 31 yards and a TD!

Maye’s 137.3 passer rating was also a career-best. This Dolphins’ defense is…something.

Time to drop all my stats and fantasy takeaways from today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData! We’re so back!

1. Trey Benson and James Conner rotated drives as runners, with the backfield carry split shaking out as 40% to 60%.

Conner out-touched Benson 2-1 inside the 10. Benson averaged just 2.4 YPC outside of his 52-yard big play, but Conner not being a clear bellcow was a bit surprising.

Conner was still preferred in the passing game (14% target share), but this severely dings any upside case he had for this year. He’s at best a high-end FLEX.

Got your fantasy football draft this weekend?

I analyzed eight years of win rate data from real ESPN leagues to find the optimal strategies for each position.

Crush your competition with my top-5 biggest takeaways 👇 The image above shows your % chance of drafting a "league-winning" player by round and position since 2017.

"League-winner" = a player who appeared on a playoff roster in >55% of leagues (well above the base rate of 40%)

Every year is different, but there are some solid trends we can count on:

Every player gets debated to death. But what about their playcallers?

The guys designing and sequencing the plays can have just as big an impact on fantasy production.

Instead of league-winning players, let's find potential league-winning offenses 👇

(via @FantasyPtsData) Play action was worth about a +40% efficiency boost to WRs in fantasy football last year.

As you can see above, the Falcons ranked last in PA rate last year.

But that was an anomaly; much of the rest of OC Zac Robinson's coaching tree (Rams, Vikings, Packers, etc) did it often

Are WRs or RBs more important in the early rounds of your fantasy football draft?

I analyzed data from real ESPN leagues, counting how many players at each position led their teams to the playoffs >55% of the time ("league winners").

A deep dive into finding these players 👇 Since 2017:

> 39% of these league-winners have been RBs

> 30% have been WRs

> 11% have been QBs

> 11% have been TEs

> 6% have been defenses

> 3% have been kickers

Time to drop all my stats recapping today's games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Zach Charbonnet was named a captain and starter before the game today.

Ken Walker out-touched him 16 to 3, tying his season-high of 8 targets.

They still evenly split the two goal-line carries. 2. Aaron Jones handled 18 of 19 backfield rush attempts today - a 95% carry share.

Jones hasn’t exceeded an 80% carry share since Week 12, nor a 90% carry share since Week 8.

His 5 targets and 14.3% target share were the highest he’s seen since Week 4.

Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Brian Thomas Jr…

From Weeks 1-8 pre-chest injury: 2.81 YPRR (would have been the best rookie WR season since 2021)

Since the bye:

29.4% target share (~WR2)
89.0 receiving YPG (~WR5)
22.6 FPG (~WR2) 2. Jaguars TE Brenton Strange also commanded a 26.1% target share in Evan Engram’s absence.

In five games without Engram this year, Strange now averages 6.2 targets/g (~TE7) and 10.9 FPG (~TE8)

Time to drop all my stats recapping today's games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson combined for 265 yards and five TDs today.

Addison now averages 102.5 receiving YPG (~WR2) on a 27.8% target share (~WR4) over the past month. 2. Falcons carries inside the 10-yard line over the past three games:

Bijan Robinson: 8
Tyler Allgeier: 1

Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Though Tyler Allgeier was more involved than last week, Bijan Robinson handled ALL FIVE carries inside the 10-yard line.

His season-high 25.9 weighted opportunities led all RBs through the 4:00 PM games. 2. Ladd McConkey commanded a 50% target share, the 2nd-highest by any player this year.

His 78% receiving yards market share was the most by any rookie since at least 2021.

8/9 catches and 105/117 yards came in the 1st half!

(Herbert attempted only 8 passes in the 2nd half).

It’s time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

Read on for a data-driven TL;DR of today's slate!

1. Most games above 20 fantasy points
[among TEs this season]

George Kittle - 5
Jonnu Smith and Travis Kelce - 3

No other TE has more than two. 2. David Montgomery exited the game with a shoulder injury toward the end of the 3rd quarter.

Jahmyr Gibbs received 12 of 13 backfield touches from that point on (all except the final carry of the game).

It’s time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Jameis Winston is feeding families.

Targets per game with Winston:

Jerry Jeudy - 10.0 (would rank ~WR3)
Elijah Moore - 9.3 (~WR5)
Cedric Tillman - 9.0 (~WR6)
David Njoku - 7.7 (~TE3) 2. I’ve already tweeted several insane Taysom Hill stats (below), but let’s focus on his role as a receiver.

Since Week 9 (when Chris Olave was concussed):

- 5.6 targets/game (~TE9)
- 42.3 receiving YPG (~TE12)
- 8.9 FPG *from receiving only* (~TE17)

https://x.com/RyanJ_Heath/status/1858255270448689375

Time to drop all my stats recapping today's games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Audric Estime may have taken over the Broncos backfield today!

*82.4% backfield carry share
*2 of 3 red zone carries

This was the first time since Week 3 Javonte Williams saw fewer than 10 opportunities My read: this happened out of a hot-hand approach.

Jaleel McLaughlin received the first carry of the game. Estime didn’t touch the ball until the Broncos’ 3rd drive.

His first three carries went for 8, 6, and 10 yards. Sean Payton likely wanted to roll with him after that.

Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. With Ezekiel Elliott a healthy scratch, Rico Dowdle saw his best workload of the season:

*80% backfield carry share
*12.0% target share
*18.1 weighted opportunities Zeke was previously absorbing a ~24% route share in his games with Dowdle this year.

Both CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott left this game with injuries, so there’s no telling what this offense could look like next week.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see them try to feature Dowdle.

Time to drop all my stats to recap today’s games!

1. Rookie WRs since 2010 to average more FPG than Brian Thomas:

1. Odell Beckham (24.6)
2. Malik Nabers (19.9)
3. Ja’Marr Chase (17.9)
4. Puka Nacua (17.6)
5. Justin Jefferson (17.1)
6. Michael Thomas (17.1)
7. Mike Evans (16.3) 2. Tank Bigsby with Travis Etienne out today:

- Led all RBs today with 26.3 weighted opportunities

- But still has just 2 targets this season (D’Ernest Johnson had 4 today)

Upcoming schedule: vs. GB, @ PHI, vs. MIN, @ DET, @ HOU

The positive game scripts are done. Sell imo.

Time to drop all my stats recapping today's games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. D’Andre Swift, Weeks 1-3:

- 11.6 weighted opportunities/game (RB32)
- 8.5% target share (RB32)

Weeks 4-6:

- 18.7 weighted opportunities/game (RB3)
- 16.0% target share (RB3) 2. Travis Etienne did not receive another touch after a fumble (which was then overturned) early in the 2nd quarter.

He was later ruled out with a hamstring injury.

After that play:

D’Ernest Johnson: 56% backfield carry share, 2 targets

Tank Bigsby: 44% carry share

Time to drop all my stats to recap today’s games!

Get caught up with this thread via @FantasyPtsData:

1. Tyler Conklin has 6+ targets each of the last 3 weeks

No other TE in the league has done that through today’s early games

(Jake Ferguson has a chance to join him tonight) 2. Garrett Wilson had 22 targets today.

That’s the most by any player in a single game this season, beating Cooper Kupp’s 21 in Week 1.

In fact, the last time a player commanded 22+ targets in a regular season game was Antonio Brown in Week 9, 2015.

It’s time to drop all the stats I’ve been collecting today!

This should be a great TL;DR of Week 2.

1. Alvin Kamara scored 44.0 fantasy points today.

This was the 3rd-best fantasy day of his career, and the best since he dropped 56.2 during fantasy championship week in 2020. Kamara’s usage remained excellent:

- 71.4% of backfield carries (up 50% in Week 1)

- 18.8% target share (top-5 among RBs through the early games)

Shanahan disciple/Saints OC Klint Kubiak has transformed this offense with the use of motion.

https://x.com/ScottBarrettDFB/status/1835386856902382006

I'm going to start dropping some stats I've collected today, starting with the early games.

This should be a great TL;DR of the day.

1. Bijan Robinson had 23 of the Falcons’ 26 backfield opportunities (carries + targets).

He cleared that number in only two games last year. Robinson has now averaged 18.7 FPG in 6 career games with 22+ opportunities.

Robinson handled the Falcons' only carry inside the red zone.

That's the first time he's been over a 66.7% red zone carry share in any game of his career.

We just launched the dankest stat ever created @FantasyPtsData

Average Separation Score — how well every player in the NFL creates separation, quantified.

We’ve used it to pull 12 stats to give you an edge in your 2024 leagues, DFS lineups, and bets.

Read on to start winning. Last year, Diontae Johnson ranked:

+2nd among all WRs in separation score overall (0.244)

+2nd from the slot (0.306)

+8th from out wide (0.228)

+1st against man coverage (0.446)

+6th against zone coverage (0.190)

Johnson is THE BEST all-around separator in the NFL.

WRs most frequently break out in Years 2 and 3 of their careers.

This can create massive draft values, as ADP does not always price in the upside.

My Age Curves-inspired, breakout WR picks for 2024:

1. Rashee Rice (Year 2)... When he became a full-time player after the bye, Rice averaged:

- 80.0 receiving YPG (WR12)

- 17.1 FPG (WR9)

He also alpha'd Travis Kelce in the games they each played over 60% of the snaps.

https://x.com/FantasyPtsData/status/1822625263957745889

So I was here in the couple of hours leading up to this video. Here’s a thread of what I saw. (MY OPINIONS, AND MINE ONLY)

https://twitter.com/adamsextonwmur/status/1443219866786349063

At Saint Anselm College and the NH Institute of Politics, there is a long history of hosting political and civic events. In years past, protestors on all sides have lined the streets outside. Never before today have they come inside.