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Sharing actionable football data to help you win leagues and arguments | Lead Data Writer @FantasyPts @FantasyPtsData | Probably tweeting about Christian Watson
Nov 3 25 tweets 5 min read
It’s time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Drake London’s target shares in his previous 3 games that Darnell Mooney started and finished this year:

- 19.0%
- 18.6%
- 18.4%

Drake London’s target share today: 37.8% 2. Although Terrell Jennings received the only backfield carry inside the 5…

…TreVeyon Henderson tied for a team-high six targets (20.7% target share), and his 18.3 weighted opportunities were the most by a Patriots RB all season.

The role could have been worse, technically.
Oct 27 28 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. The Browns’ backfield after Quinshon Judkins left the game with a shoulder injury:

Dylan Sampson: 3 of 3 backfield carries, 6 targets (30.0% target share)

Jerome Ford: Just one target (on a 1st and 10) If Sampson is both the primary early-down back and plays on some passing downs with Judkins out, he goes straight to the top-18 discussion at the position.

This is a player the Browns fed for 17.8 XFP in Week 1.

If the Judkins injury news turns negative, I’d empty my FAAB.
Oct 20 34 tweets 6 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Blake Corum out-carried Kyren Williams 10 to 5 in the 2nd half of a blowout.

In the 1st half, Williams led in carries 7-2 and commanded 80% of the backfield’s weighted opportunities, closer to the norm. 2. Travis Hunter’s 29.2% target share was the highest mark by a Jaguars player in any game this year.

His 17.4% target share on the season isn’t thaaat far behind Emeka Egbuka and Tetairoa McMillan (each at 21.5%).
Oct 13 32 tweets 6 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Over his past two games without Braelon Allen, Breece Hall is commanding:

- 92% of backfield carries
- 100% of backfield rush attempts inside the red zone

…But that’s led to just 12.2 FPG. Here's why: …At the same time, this offense has died.

Excluding the 4th quarter against the Cowboys, Justin Fields has thrown for just 191 yards over the past two weeks.

(And obnoxiously, Isaiah Davis has out-targeted Hall (5 to 4) in that timeframe.)
Oct 6 25 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. In his first start, Browns rookie QB Dillon Gabriel targeted TEs on 39.4% of his pass attempts.

For comparison, David Njoku and Harold Fannin had combined for just a 26.8% target share entering today. 2. Jordan Addison was benched in the 1st quarter. But from that point on, the Vikings’ target shares broke down as:

Justin Jefferson - 26.9%
Jordan Addison - 23.1%
T.J. Hockenson - 15.4%

Hockenson has hit a 20% target share in just 2 of his last 12 games with Addison.
Sep 29 28 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats and fantasy takeaways recapping today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData!

1. The Giants’ targets shares for the ~36 minutes after Malik Nabers went down:

Theo Johnson - 30.8%
Wan’Dale Robinson - 30.8%
Darius Slayton - 15.4%
Cam Skattebo - 15.4% 2. Speaking of Skattebo, he commanded 83% of the backfield’s weighted opportunities in his first full game without Tyrone Tracy.

That included all 5(!) backfield carries inside the 10.

Offense is probably toast without Nabers, but not much left to do besides feature Skattebo.
Sep 22 34 tweets 6 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Quinshon Judkins is now the Browns’ early-down workhorse.

- 19 of 20 backfield carries

- All 3 opportunities inside the 10

Jerome Ford still had both 3rd-down targets, but Judkins is now in RB2 land. @FantasyPtsData 2. With Jayden Reed out, Josh Jacobs (who else) became the Packers’ featured receiving weapon. Target shares:

Josh Jacobs - 36%
Matthew Golden - 16%
Dotayvion Wicks - 16%
Tucker Kraft - 16%
Romeo Doubs - 8%

This was Jacobs’ highest single-game target share since at least 2021.
Sep 15 41 tweets 8 min read
Time to drop all my stats and fantasy takeaways from today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData!

1. After reports that the Patriots would change their backfield snap distribution…

TreVeyon Henderson saw just:

3/19 backfield carries
2/8 backfield targets
22% of weighted opportunities 2. After totaling only four rush attempts (one designed) in Week 1…

Drake Maye ran 10 times for 31 yards and a TD!

Maye’s 137.3 passer rating was also a career-best. This Dolphins’ defense is…something.
Sep 8 51 tweets 9 min read
Time to drop all my stats and fantasy takeaways from today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData! We’re so back!

1. Trey Benson and James Conner rotated drives as runners, with the backfield carry split shaking out as 40% to 60%.

Conner out-touched Benson 2-1 inside the 10. Benson averaged just 2.4 YPC outside of his 52-yard big play, but Conner not being a clear bellcow was a bit surprising.

Conner was still preferred in the passing game (14% target share), but this severely dings any upside case he had for this year. He’s at best a high-end FLEX.
Aug 29 14 tweets 5 min read
Got your fantasy football draft this weekend?

I analyzed eight years of win rate data from real ESPN leagues to find the optimal strategies for each position.

Crush your competition with my top-5 biggest takeaways 👇 Image The image above shows your % chance of drafting a "league-winning" player by round and position since 2017.

"League-winner" = a player who appeared on a playoff roster in >55% of leagues (well above the base rate of 40%)

Every year is different, but there are some solid trends we can count on:
Aug 13 15 tweets 5 min read
Every player gets debated to death. But what about their playcallers?

The guys designing and sequencing the plays can have just as big an impact on fantasy production.

Instead of league-winning players, let's find potential league-winning offenses 👇

(via @FantasyPtsData) Image Play action was worth about a +40% efficiency boost to WRs in fantasy football last year.

As you can see above, the Falcons ranked last in PA rate last year.

But that was an anomaly; much of the rest of OC Zac Robinson's coaching tree (Rams, Vikings, Packers, etc) did it often Image
Jul 16 9 tweets 4 min read
Are WRs or RBs more important in the early rounds of your fantasy football draft?

I analyzed data from real ESPN leagues, counting how many players at each position led their teams to the playoffs >55% of the time ("league winners").

A deep dive into finding these players 👇 Image Since 2017:

> 39% of these league-winners have been RBs

> 30% have been WRs

> 11% have been QBs

> 11% have been TEs

> 6% have been defenses

> 3% have been kickers Image
Dec 23, 2024 24 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today's games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Zach Charbonnet was named a captain and starter before the game today.

Ken Walker out-touched him 16 to 3, tying his season-high of 8 targets.

They still evenly split the two goal-line carries. 2. Aaron Jones handled 18 of 19 backfield rush attempts today - a 95% carry share.

Jones hasn’t exceeded an 80% carry share since Week 12, nor a 90% carry share since Week 8.

His 5 targets and 14.3% target share were the highest he’s seen since Week 4.
Dec 16, 2024 30 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Brian Thomas Jr…

From Weeks 1-8 pre-chest injury: 2.81 YPRR (would have been the best rookie WR season since 2021)

Since the bye:

29.4% target share (~WR2)
89.0 receiving YPG (~WR5)
22.6 FPG (~WR2) 2. Jaguars TE Brenton Strange also commanded a 26.1% target share in Evan Engram’s absence.

In five games without Engram this year, Strange now averages 6.2 targets/g (~TE7) and 10.9 FPG (~TE8)
Dec 9, 2024 21 tweets 4 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today's games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson combined for 265 yards and five TDs today.

Addison now averages 102.5 receiving YPG (~WR2) on a 27.8% target share (~WR4) over the past month. 2. Falcons carries inside the 10-yard line over the past three games:

Bijan Robinson: 8
Tyler Allgeier: 1
Dec 2, 2024 24 tweets 4 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Though Tyler Allgeier was more involved than last week, Bijan Robinson handled ALL FIVE carries inside the 10-yard line.

His season-high 25.9 weighted opportunities led all RBs through the 4:00 PM games. 2. Ladd McConkey commanded a 50% target share, the 2nd-highest by any player this year.

His 78% receiving yards market share was the most by any rookie since at least 2021.

8/9 catches and 105/117 yards came in the 1st half!

(Herbert attempted only 8 passes in the 2nd half).
Nov 25, 2024 28 tweets 5 min read
It’s time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

Read on for a data-driven TL;DR of today's slate!

1. Most games above 20 fantasy points
[among TEs this season]

George Kittle - 5
Jonnu Smith and Travis Kelce - 3

No other TE has more than two. 2. David Montgomery exited the game with a shoulder injury toward the end of the 3rd quarter.

Jahmyr Gibbs received 12 of 13 backfield touches from that point on (all except the final carry of the game).
Nov 18, 2024 29 tweets 6 min read
It’s time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Jameis Winston is feeding families.

Targets per game with Winston:

Jerry Jeudy - 10.0 (would rank ~WR3)
Elijah Moore - 9.3 (~WR5)
Cedric Tillman - 9.0 (~WR6)
David Njoku - 7.7 (~TE3) 2. I’ve already tweeted several insane Taysom Hill stats (below), but let’s focus on his role as a receiver.

Since Week 9 (when Chris Olave was concussed):

- 5.6 targets/game (~TE9)
- 42.3 receiving YPG (~TE12)
- 8.9 FPG *from receiving only* (~TE17)
Nov 11, 2024 30 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today's games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Audric Estime may have taken over the Broncos backfield today!

*82.4% backfield carry share
*2 of 3 red zone carries

This was the first time since Week 3 Javonte Williams saw fewer than 10 opportunities My read: this happened out of a hot-hand approach.

Jaleel McLaughlin received the first carry of the game. Estime didn’t touch the ball until the Broncos’ 3rd drive.

His first three carries went for 8, 6, and 10 yards. Sean Payton likely wanted to roll with him after that.
Nov 4, 2024 38 tweets 7 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. With Ezekiel Elliott a healthy scratch, Rico Dowdle saw his best workload of the season:

*80% backfield carry share
*12.0% target share
*18.1 weighted opportunities Zeke was previously absorbing a ~24% route share in his games with Dowdle this year.

Both CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott left this game with injuries, so there’s no telling what this offense could look like next week.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see them try to feature Dowdle.
Oct 21, 2024 36 tweets 7 min read
Time to drop all my stats to recap today’s games!

1. Rookie WRs since 2010 to average more FPG than Brian Thomas:

1. Odell Beckham (24.6)
2. Malik Nabers (19.9)
3. Ja’Marr Chase (17.9)
4. Puka Nacua (17.6)
5. Justin Jefferson (17.1)
6. Michael Thomas (17.1)
7. Mike Evans (16.3) 2. Tank Bigsby with Travis Etienne out today:

- Led all RBs today with 26.3 weighted opportunities

- But still has just 2 targets this season (D’Ernest Johnson had 4 today)

Upcoming schedule: vs. GB, @ PHI, vs. MIN, @ DET, @ HOU

The positive game scripts are done. Sell imo.