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Sharing actionable football data to help you win leagues and arguments | Lead Data Writer @FantasyPts @FantasyPtsData | Probably tweeting about Christian Watson
Dec 8 28 tweets 6 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. In addition to a kickoff return TD, Rashid Shaheed finished 2nd on the Seahawks in target share (16.7%) and receiving yards (67).

This was the first time he’s out-targeted Cooper Kupp and A.J. Barner. 2. Kyle Pitts has seen target shares of 29%, 22%, 24%, and (today) 33% in four games with Kirk Cousins and without Drake London.

He averages 64.0 receiving YPG in this sample (~TE2), but just 12.4 FPG with zero touchdowns.
Dec 1 26 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Adonai Mitchell now averages a 28.4% target share (~WR7) and 51.3 receiving YPG in three games with the Jets.

For comparison, Garrett Wilson averages a 30.4% target share and 56.4 receiving YPG this year. 2. Kyle Pitts has now led the Falcons in target share during all three of Kirk Cousins’ starts, posting 29.0%, 21.7%, and 24.2% target shares in those three games.

He averages 55.3 receiving YPG (~TE8) and 11.5 FPG (~TE10) within that sample.
Nov 24 26 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. TreVeyon Henderson’s role crystallized with Rhamondre Stevenson back:

- 72% backfield carry share
- 11% target share, 16.4 weighted opportunities

…but only 1 of 4 backfield carries inside the 5. …If there’s a silver lining to the above for Henderson, it’s that the Pats had an awful goal line sequence in the 3rd quarter, and Stevenson and Jennings got brutally stuffed.

Not really on the RBs, but Hendo got the rock at the 4 a couple drives later. So change is possible.
Nov 17 28 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. The Commanders’ backfield meaningfully shifted toward Chris Rodriguez.

C-Rod hit a season-high 53% backfield carry share while Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s fell to 32%, his lowest since the Ekeler injury. 2. Ollie Gordon came away with the team’s only rushing TD, but he and De’Von Achane each received four carries inside the 10-yard line.

Gordon has one more such opportunity than Achane over the entire season (10 to 9).
Nov 10 28 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Tyler Allgeier received 3 carries inside the 10-yard line today, to Bijan Robinson’s zero.

He’s now at 5 to Robinson’s 1 over their past four games. Robinson hasn’t scored a rushing TD since Week 6. 2. Over his last four games, Alec Pierce has seen target shares of 29.4%, 16.1%, 24.0%, and 26.9%.

Over this span, he leads the Colts in targets (34) and receiving YPG (91.5, would rank ~WR4).

His 14.9 FPG would rank as the ~WR12 this year.
Nov 3 25 tweets 5 min read
It’s time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Drake London’s target shares in his previous 3 games that Darnell Mooney started and finished this year:

- 19.0%
- 18.6%
- 18.4%

Drake London’s target share today: 37.8% 2. Although Terrell Jennings received the only backfield carry inside the 5…

…TreVeyon Henderson tied for a team-high six targets (20.7% target share), and his 18.3 weighted opportunities were the most by a Patriots RB all season.

The role could have been worse, technically.
Oct 27 28 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. The Browns’ backfield after Quinshon Judkins left the game with a shoulder injury:

Dylan Sampson: 3 of 3 backfield carries, 6 targets (30.0% target share)

Jerome Ford: Just one target (on a 1st and 10) If Sampson is both the primary early-down back and plays on some passing downs with Judkins out, he goes straight to the top-18 discussion at the position.

This is a player the Browns fed for 17.8 XFP in Week 1.

If the Judkins injury news turns negative, I’d empty my FAAB.
Oct 20 34 tweets 6 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Blake Corum out-carried Kyren Williams 10 to 5 in the 2nd half of a blowout.

In the 1st half, Williams led in carries 7-2 and commanded 80% of the backfield’s weighted opportunities, closer to the norm. 2. Travis Hunter’s 29.2% target share was the highest mark by a Jaguars player in any game this year.

His 17.4% target share on the season isn’t thaaat far behind Emeka Egbuka and Tetairoa McMillan (each at 21.5%).
Oct 13 32 tweets 6 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Over his past two games without Braelon Allen, Breece Hall is commanding:

- 92% of backfield carries
- 100% of backfield rush attempts inside the red zone

…But that’s led to just 12.2 FPG. Here's why: …At the same time, this offense has died.

Excluding the 4th quarter against the Cowboys, Justin Fields has thrown for just 191 yards over the past two weeks.

(And obnoxiously, Isaiah Davis has out-targeted Hall (5 to 4) in that timeframe.)
Oct 6 25 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. In his first start, Browns rookie QB Dillon Gabriel targeted TEs on 39.4% of his pass attempts.

For comparison, David Njoku and Harold Fannin had combined for just a 26.8% target share entering today. 2. Jordan Addison was benched in the 1st quarter. But from that point on, the Vikings’ target shares broke down as:

Justin Jefferson - 26.9%
Jordan Addison - 23.1%
T.J. Hockenson - 15.4%

Hockenson has hit a 20% target share in just 2 of his last 12 games with Addison.
Sep 29 28 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats and fantasy takeaways recapping today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData!

1. The Giants’ targets shares for the ~36 minutes after Malik Nabers went down:

Theo Johnson - 30.8%
Wan’Dale Robinson - 30.8%
Darius Slayton - 15.4%
Cam Skattebo - 15.4% 2. Speaking of Skattebo, he commanded 83% of the backfield’s weighted opportunities in his first full game without Tyrone Tracy.

That included all 5(!) backfield carries inside the 10.

Offense is probably toast without Nabers, but not much left to do besides feature Skattebo.
Sep 22 34 tweets 6 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Quinshon Judkins is now the Browns’ early-down workhorse.

- 19 of 20 backfield carries

- All 3 opportunities inside the 10

Jerome Ford still had both 3rd-down targets, but Judkins is now in RB2 land. @FantasyPtsData 2. With Jayden Reed out, Josh Jacobs (who else) became the Packers’ featured receiving weapon. Target shares:

Josh Jacobs - 36%
Matthew Golden - 16%
Dotayvion Wicks - 16%
Tucker Kraft - 16%
Romeo Doubs - 8%

This was Jacobs’ highest single-game target share since at least 2021.
Sep 15 41 tweets 8 min read
Time to drop all my stats and fantasy takeaways from today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData!

1. After reports that the Patriots would change their backfield snap distribution…

TreVeyon Henderson saw just:

3/19 backfield carries
2/8 backfield targets
22% of weighted opportunities 2. After totaling only four rush attempts (one designed) in Week 1…

Drake Maye ran 10 times for 31 yards and a TD!

Maye’s 137.3 passer rating was also a career-best. This Dolphins’ defense is…something.
Sep 8 51 tweets 9 min read
Time to drop all my stats and fantasy takeaways from today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData! We’re so back!

1. Trey Benson and James Conner rotated drives as runners, with the backfield carry split shaking out as 40% to 60%.

Conner out-touched Benson 2-1 inside the 10. Benson averaged just 2.4 YPC outside of his 52-yard big play, but Conner not being a clear bellcow was a bit surprising.

Conner was still preferred in the passing game (14% target share), but this severely dings any upside case he had for this year. He’s at best a high-end FLEX.
Aug 29 14 tweets 5 min read
Got your fantasy football draft this weekend?

I analyzed eight years of win rate data from real ESPN leagues to find the optimal strategies for each position.

Crush your competition with my top-5 biggest takeaways 👇 Image The image above shows your % chance of drafting a "league-winning" player by round and position since 2017.

"League-winner" = a player who appeared on a playoff roster in >55% of leagues (well above the base rate of 40%)

Every year is different, but there are some solid trends we can count on:
Aug 13 15 tweets 5 min read
Every player gets debated to death. But what about their playcallers?

The guys designing and sequencing the plays can have just as big an impact on fantasy production.

Instead of league-winning players, let's find potential league-winning offenses 👇

(via @FantasyPtsData) Image Play action was worth about a +40% efficiency boost to WRs in fantasy football last year.

As you can see above, the Falcons ranked last in PA rate last year.

But that was an anomaly; much of the rest of OC Zac Robinson's coaching tree (Rams, Vikings, Packers, etc) did it often Image
Jul 16 9 tweets 4 min read
Are WRs or RBs more important in the early rounds of your fantasy football draft?

I analyzed data from real ESPN leagues, counting how many players at each position led their teams to the playoffs >55% of the time ("league winners").

A deep dive into finding these players 👇 Image Since 2017:

> 39% of these league-winners have been RBs

> 30% have been WRs

> 11% have been QBs

> 11% have been TEs

> 6% have been defenses

> 3% have been kickers Image
Dec 23, 2024 24 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today's games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Zach Charbonnet was named a captain and starter before the game today.

Ken Walker out-touched him 16 to 3, tying his season-high of 8 targets.

They still evenly split the two goal-line carries. 2. Aaron Jones handled 18 of 19 backfield rush attempts today - a 95% carry share.

Jones hasn’t exceeded an 80% carry share since Week 12, nor a 90% carry share since Week 8.

His 5 targets and 14.3% target share were the highest he’s seen since Week 4.
Dec 16, 2024 30 tweets 5 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Brian Thomas Jr…

From Weeks 1-8 pre-chest injury: 2.81 YPRR (would have been the best rookie WR season since 2021)

Since the bye:

29.4% target share (~WR2)
89.0 receiving YPG (~WR5)
22.6 FPG (~WR2) 2. Jaguars TE Brenton Strange also commanded a 26.1% target share in Evan Engram’s absence.

In five games without Engram this year, Strange now averages 6.2 targets/g (~TE7) and 10.9 FPG (~TE8)
Dec 9, 2024 21 tweets 4 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today's games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson combined for 265 yards and five TDs today.

Addison now averages 102.5 receiving YPG (~WR2) on a 27.8% target share (~WR4) over the past month. 2. Falcons carries inside the 10-yard line over the past three games:

Bijan Robinson: 8
Tyler Allgeier: 1
Dec 2, 2024 24 tweets 4 min read
Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Though Tyler Allgeier was more involved than last week, Bijan Robinson handled ALL FIVE carries inside the 10-yard line.

His season-high 25.9 weighted opportunities led all RBs through the 4:00 PM games. 2. Ladd McConkey commanded a 50% target share, the 2nd-highest by any player this year.

His 78% receiving yards market share was the most by any rookie since at least 2021.

8/9 catches and 105/117 yards came in the 1st half!

(Herbert attempted only 8 passes in the 2nd half).