Thread by @SteB777

I want to make some observations about the Keir Starmer calamity, because Labour's problems, giving Reform an open goal they shouldn't have, cannot be fixed with Starmer changing direction or strategy. He has to go. He is fundamentally incompetent, and arrogant.
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People keep telling me, the problem is Morgan McSweeney, not Starmer. No, if Starmer is being given bad advice by McSweeney, again and again, and is not learning from the experience, this is a Starmer problem, and not a McSweeney problem.
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This is not that can be fixed, by getting rid of McSweeney, because if you have a leader who fails to grasp he is being given bad advice, from experience, again and again, it can't be fixed with different advisers. An adviser's job is to advise, not to control.
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Before going on, I have been doing my own private analysis of political dynamics, for fun, as a stress reliever for over 50 years. I have been making very accurate predictions, over and over again, and very rarely got it completely wrong.
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I accurately predicted on the Guardian comments sections, that Brexit would destroy the Conservative Party, from before the referendum result. I was absolutely confident about this. I could go on, and on.
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I confidently predicted Johnson's premiership would collapse after 2-3 years, at the time of the 2019 GE. It wasn't a lucky guess in this tweet, I wrote long detailed explanations to a penfriend, about that would happen.

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https://x.com/SteB777/status/1207413124946702336

I've been accurately predicting these things for a very long time. People used to laugh and sneer at me when I confidently predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the collapse of the Berlin Wall, but when it happened, people just said I was lucky.
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It never happens, that someone goes OMG you were right, and takes more notice of me the next time. They just refuse to acknowledge I was right, and forget all about how they dismissed what I said.
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The purpose of this, is not to blow my own trumpet, or set myself up as a political guru, I am just telling you what is going to happen, as sure as night follows day, This Labour regime will lurch from one self-induced own goal to another, on a downward spiral.
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There is zero chance Starmer will recover from this, death spiral, and it is all downhill from here. Never in all Starmer's leadership of the Labour Party, has he ever shown any ability to learn from experience.
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All senior Labour politicians are aware of this, but there are all these weird establishment rules and traditions, that you can't turn against your leader, that he deserves another chance because he won a great election victory (he didn't).
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Starmer's Labour got a massive majority, not because of anything they did, but because the Tories committed electoral suicide, by relentlessly pursuing exactly the same type of grey nasty policy, as Starmer is now, presumably written by Murdoch or whoever.
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I am well aware it was more complex than this, the Tory vote being split by Reform etc. But the fact is, Labour got less votes, than under Corbyn's supposedly disastrous leadership, which wasn't disastrous at all.
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If Labour follows this hierarchical BS, that Starmer deserves more time, another chance, etc, then Labour will be giving undeserved boosts to Reform, with a mortally wounded Conservative Party. It is utter stupidity of the highest order.
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In a rational world, Labour would seek to replace Starmer with someone politically competent like Andy Burnham (personally, I say we need a far more radical change of direction) but I am being pragmatic, to stop Labour becoming the further facilitator of Reform.
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Sticking with Starmer and trying to apply sticking plasters, will just produce a downward spiral with Labour, making it much harder for any Starmer replacement to turn it around, with Labour's reputation, so badly damaged. Maybe irreparably.
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I think most people with their heads screwed on the right way, are already well aware of the reality of what I say. But there are all these arcane and weird establishment rules about how it must proceed and happen. None of which make any sense.
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Nothing I say, is from the point of what I want. I argue we need massive system change, of the type no political party is offering. As the great @GretaThunberg said some years back, the politics to address the climate crisis, has not yet been invented.
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All I am doing is trying to give some clarity about what will happen, if Labour stick with Starmer as leader. Labour will go into a death spiral, and it will be great for Farage's, Reform.
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Ironically, Reform are winning by default, just like how Starmer did in last year's General Election, where every other big party was so damaged by incompetence, that by process of elimination, Labour was the only option.
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As Keir Starmer has just been the Rishi Sunak continuance PM, with the same dire, grey nasty, anti-human policy, that no one can understand, by process of elimination, the dire Reform Party are all that remains (total BS of course). That's the media narrative, not mine.
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In an ideal world, Labour would just be replaced by a @ZackPolanski @TheGreenParty in a progressive alliance with Your Party @jeremycorbyn and @zarahsultana. But this is going to be very difficult with the current media propaganda machine.
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Again, this is just the least worse option, because I entirely agree with @GretaThunberg that the politics to resolve the climate and ecological crisis, does not yet exist. This needs much bigger changes, than merely different parties, or leaders.
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I only added this last part, to make it clear, that it's not my wishes. I am just explaining what will happen if Starmer remains PM - that it could put Farage into No.10 (Reform are a fake political party, not representing their own supporters).
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