Honza Černý Profile picture
Sep 16 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/
US consumers just did it again:
Retail sales blew past expectations in August.
Headline: +0.6% (est. +0.2%)
Ex-autos: +0.7% (est. +0.4%)

Control group: +0.7% (est. +0.4%)

But here’s the truth: this isn’t strength, it’s denial. 🧵👇 Image
2/
Why are Americans still spending when:
Inflation erodes real wages

Credit card APRs >20%

Savings rates at historic lows

Because reality hurts — and swiping the card is easier than facing it.
3/
Drivers of the binge:
Credit card debt at record highs ($1.3T+)

“We survived Covid, we’ll survive this” psychology

Jobs still available, so fear feels far away

Stock market at highs → fake sense of wealth

Inflation mindset: better buy today than tomorrow
4/
This is not resilience.
It’s recklessness dressed up as resilience.
Living on debt, pretending it’s income.
5/
The cruel irony?
Every extra dollar spent today adds fuel to inflation tomorrow.
It’s like trying to put out a fire with gasoline.
6/
And when the bill comes due — rates, inflation, defaults — who’s really prepared?
Not the spender chasing dopamine at Walmart.
7/
The only winners will be those who kept discipline.
Those who said:
❌ No to credit illusions
✅ Yes to stacking real assets
8/
Because in the end, it’s not the consumer binge that builds wealth.
It’s the saver’s patience.
And stackers have already chosen their side.

#RetailSales #DebtCrisis #Inflation #Silver #Stacking
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More from @honzacern1

Sep 16
1/
🌍📉 While U.S. liquidity buffers have run dry, global central banks are quietly opening the taps again.
The story hasn’t hit the headlines yet. But the numbers already speak. 🧵👇 Image
2/
Global CB liquidity (Fed + ECB + BoJ + PBoC) just turned upward after years of tightening.
That’s not a random move.
It usually happens when something breaks in the background.
3/
At the same time in the U.S.:
The Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility has collapsed from $2.5T → $18B.
The giant cash cushion built up since 2020 is gone.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 16
1/
Vietnam is becoming a live test of biometric control over money. ~86M “dead/unverified” bank accounts are being purged — not to steal active balances, but to push everyone into VNeID biometric compliance. Clean-up?

Or building a switch? 🧵👇
2/
The message is simple: full access to digital banking increasingly requires biometric ID. Comply to transact; delay and your functions get throttled. That’s a new kind of leverage over citizens.
3/
One ID to rule them all: banking + e-gov + airports (biometric check-in). Convenience on the surface, consolidation of power underneath.
Read 13 tweets
Sep 16
1/
More than a third of U.S. CPI inflation data is now made up.
Yes — 36% of “prices” are no longer actual prices, but imputed estimates.
Let’s unpack why this matters. 🧵👇
2/
Normally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects ~90,000 price quotes each month across 200 categories.
Missing data is filled with estimates, usually ~10%.
That’s manageable.
3/
But now?
Estimates exploded from 10% → 36% in just a few months.
That means over 1 in 3 CPI “prices” aren’t real — they’re statistical guesses.
Read 10 tweets
Sep 16
1/
“Maybe we’ll pay off our $35T with a crypto check… a little bitcoin.” — sounds more like a soft default live on stage than a serious plan. 🤖 Image
2/
Magic digital dust for a black-hole-sized debt? Sure. What’s next — patching up the Titanic with a “blockchain” sticker?
3/
We see where the wind blows: when reality hurts, roll out the buzzwords. Decentralization! Innovation! Hodl! — let creditors calculate volatility as “purchasing power."
Read 20 tweets
Sep 15
1/
Fed’s liquidity cushion is almost gone.
Today’s reverse repo (RRP) operation:
👉 Only 16 counterparties
👉 Just $16.95B placed with the Fed

That’s tiny compared to the trillions parked here in 2021–2023. 🧵👇 Image
2/
What is RRP?

It’s basically the Fed’s parking lot for excess dollars.
Money market funds lend cash to the Fed overnight and get Treasuries + interest in return.

When RRP is high → too many dollars sloshing around.
When RRP is low → liquidity is drying up.
3/
In 2022, RRP peaked at $2.5 trillion.
Now it’s almost empty.
This means:
Less excess liquidity in the system

Fewer buffers for shocks

Every crisis will hit harder
Read 7 tweets
Sep 15
1/
🚨 Big news for silver.
Discovery Silver just locked in a $250M revolving credit facility from a syndicate of banks (expandable to $350M).

What does that mean for stackers? 🧵👇 Image
2/
Banks don’t hand out a quarter-billion dollar credit line for fun.

They see what we see: silver demand isn’t going away.
Electronics, EVs, solar, industry → the future runs on silver. ⚡️
3/
Discovery Silver’s main project: Cordero (Mexico) — one of the largest undeveloped silver projects in the world.
This credit line fuels its development.

Translation: the market is betting silver is here to stay.
Read 9 tweets

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