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DeepDownAnalysis

@deepdownanlyz

Sep 16

“Consumption-led growth is a mirage.”

"Reforms by Modi Govt is just for rich".

It has been published in an article in a major "Express" news paper last week.

Do facts tell the same story? Read this thread till the end.

Under Modi Govt's GST reforms...

India has turned taxation from chaos into a unified system.

Compliance has risen, leakages plugged, and collections hit a record ₹2.1 lakh crore in April 2024.

Inflation has been managed, ensuring food and essentials remain affordable.

The poor are supported with free food for 80 crore people under PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana.

The middle class benefits from lower GST slabs on daily goods.

This is not a mirage—it’s smart policy converting every rupee spent into inclusive growth.

The article says consumption is unequal, but misses the larger truth: absolute consumption has risen for everyone.

HCES 2023-24 shows the bottom 5% in rural India consumes ~₹1,677/month, up nearly 3x from 20 years ago.

Rural electrification, LPG under Ujjwala, and free ration schemes mean households now spend less on survival and more on improving quality of life.

When poor families no longer worry about hunger, they can buy soap, clothes, or mobiles fueling new demand. Inequality is a challenge, but the growth of consumption across all income groups proves India’s story is genuine, not illusory.

Read 11 tweets

DeepDownAnalysis

@deepdownanlyz

Sep 12

Operation Sindoor 2.0 Loading....

It won't be a military action.

It won't be about POJK.

Neither it will be a reactive measure.

Read this thread till the end as there many connecting dots to understand.

This time, it will be of the people, by the people, for the..

.... people of Pakistan.

Asim Munir is heading toward's KP Oli's fate but in even worst possible way.

I had predicted long back that US eyeing Pakistan's mineral reserve that's why Trump claimed credit for ceasefire to Asim Munir's face.

That came true when Pakistan signed $500 Mn deal.

Munir doesn't know he has signed warrant of his ouster.

How?

Munir's Pakistan is sitting on time bomb made of:

1. Mobilised political base around Imran Khan,
2. Freedom Movement in peripheries (Balochistan, KPK) fueled by Pakistani Army's actions,
...

...3. Anger of Pakistanis from inflation, flood, surveillance
4. Balancing act between US-China over minerals and security.
5. Corruption and royal life style of Pakistani Generals and ministers.

Taken together at scale of Pakistani population can cause much worse situation than Nepal.

Imran Khan’s 2022 ouster still defines the landscape. Removed via no-confidence, he didn’t vanish, he radicalised his base.

He was removed by US and powerful military setup when he started to make his own decisions and aligning with Russia.

Time and again there have been news of Imran Khan getting assaulted in jail have radicalised his support base.

He has become open critique of Asim Munir than his political rival.

Mass rallies, arrests, and violent clashes kept PTI supporters in the headlines through 2024–25.

His followers are organised, digitally ....

Read 12 tweets

DeepDownAnalysis

@deepdownanlyz

Sep 10

🚨 Nepal is boiling.

But Wait..
Is the world’s only Hindu Rashtra making a comeback?

What began as a Gen-Z outcry against a social media ban has turned into something far bigger anger at corruption, misgovernance & failed democracy.

Now, with protesters demanding a “Modi-like PM” and the Nepal's Army Chief addressing Nation under the portrait of Nepal’s first King…

On September 4, KP Oli govt announced ban on Social Media.

And unrest irrupted.

The immediate spark was a sudden ban on 26 social-media platforms Facebook, X, Instagram, YouTube and others — which removed the primary organizing and grievance-sharing channels for the youngest Nepalis.

But the protests weren’t only about apps: Gen-Z crowds were expressing long-standing frustration with corruption, nepotism, cronyism, youth unemployment and economic stagnation.

The unrest turned deadly: dozens killed and hundreds injured during clashes, and the government quickly rolled back the ban amid mounting pressure.

But damage was done.

What began as student-led street actions escalated very quickly. Protesters pushed toward the federal parliament, clashes produced live rounds, rubber bullets and mass arrests, and in several spots government buildings and senior officials’ residences were torched or vandalized.

The army’s intervention and the symbolism of a king’s portrait:

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DeepDownAnalysis

@deepdownanlyz

Sep 9

Nepal’s Gen-Z Uprising: Wake Up Warning for India?

Imran Khan Removal in Pakistan

Sri Lanka "Economic Crisis"

Bangladesh's coup ,

US's new $500mn Critical Mineral Deal in Pakistan,

If last 1-2 years has anything for India to realize then it has to be:

India can’t treat this pattern as “someone else’s problem.”
👇

India's backyard is shifting.

Let's look at our closest neighbour:

Nepal: The spark and the scale of protest was such that within days even wife of ex-PM was burnt to death.

Student-led protests against a government social-media ban and alleged elite corruption exploded into country-wide unrest; police firing killed at least 19 people, parliament and senior politicians’ homes were attacked, and Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli resigned as the crisis spread.

What began as a censorship fight quickly exposed deeper governance failures — young people, joblessness, corruption and anger at elite privilege.

The speed and violence of this collapse matters because it shows how fragile political equilibrium can be when social media bans, trust deficits and youth mobilization meet heavy-handed policing.

But this is not the first and won't be last:

...look at Bangladesh (2024) and Sri Lanka (2022).

Bangladesh’s large student protests over the quota system in mid-2024 escalated into nationwide unrest and a harsh state response that revealed simmering economic and social grievances.

It was fueled by external interests which wasn't entertained by Sheikh Hasina govt.

Sri Lanka’s 2022 “Aragalaya” began as protests over economic collapse and rapidly toppled entrenched political elites.

The common thread: a young, connected population pushing back on corruption, inequality and governance failure — and foreign actors watching and sometimes leaning in, overtly or through economic leverage.

These precedents show how domestic grievance can become geopolitical leverage.

Should India be worried with this:

Read 14 tweets

DeepDownAnalysis

@deepdownanlyz

Sep 8

Ohh Wait....

Is this US shifting its $35 Trillion debt onto the world?

Tariffs as the opening act, crypto as the reset.

To give you a heads up, remember what happened in :

1. 1930: US confiscated citizens’ gold → debt reduced.

2. 1973: Nixon ended gold standard → dollar became world currency, US printed freely.

Now Putin advisor Anton Kobyakov warned that the US is preparing a way to push part of its huge $35 trillion debt into crypto and gold markets and...

.... then devalue it leaving the loss to other holders.

That claim sounds dramatic, but when you stitch together two real trends — an aggressive tariff policy that raises huge sums and a White House-friendly push to make digital dollars and stablecoins mainstream — the scenario becomes plausible as a high-stakes strategy.

This thread walks step-by-step through how tariffs can be the short-term weapon, how non-dollar settlement & local currency trades give cover, why crypto rails matter, and how Trump’s own crypto stakes could personally profit if this plays out.

Tariffs: short-term cash and political cover:

Tariffs are simple: They tax imports and bring immediate cash into the Treasury.

In 2025 the U.S. has already collected record monthly tariff hauls and year-to-date customs revenue in the low hundreds of billions — a real boost to government receipts and political cover for “paying down” pressures.

But tariffs are also blunt instruments: they distort trade, raise consumer prices, and signal to big trading partners that the U.S. will weaponize trade policy.

That signal is useful politically — and strategically — if the aim is to force other economies to test non-dollar settlement arrangements or to accept alternative payment rails.

The recent surge in tariff collections shows the tool is working as a revenue and leverage mechanism.

But it creates...

Read 13 tweets

DeepDownAnalysis

@deepdownanlyz

Sep 6

India’s Journey: From Tax Jungle to One Nation, One Tax

Read this data backed thread to understand how GST has become backbone of Indian Economy .

Before 2017, India’s tax system was chaos:
17 different taxes,
13 cesses,
double taxation,
endless paperwork,
and corruption at every step.

Every state felt like crossing a border, with new levies, new rates, and higher prices for the common man.

Then Modi Govt under FM Nirmala Sitharaman dropped a bombshell—GST.

A single tax that rewired India’s economy forever. In this thread, backed by hard numbers and facts, I’ll show you how GST turned a fragmented mess into the backbone of New India’s growth:

Before GST: VAT Chaos

VAT was supposed to simplify taxes but became a nightmare.

Every state had different rates: toothpaste at 12.5% in one state, 4% in another.

States imposed extra levies like entry tax despite promises not to. Refunds worth crores were delayed for months, suffocating small traders.

Input Tax Credit was misused due to weak oversight. Some manufacturers even kept MRP high despite lower VAT, pocketing the difference. Digital loopholes let traders evade tax easily.

Net result: double taxation, high compliance burden, unstable rules, and higher costs for citizens

GST Rollout: The Big Reform
On 1st July 2017, PM Modi rolled out GST—merging 17 taxes and 13 cesses into a single levy.

No more multiple state barriers, no more cascading tax-on-tax. GST gave input tax credit seamlessly, introduced uniform procedures nationwide, and digitised returns to reduce corruption.

Businesses could move goods across states without delays, and consumers saw simpler bills. It wasn’t just tax reform—it stitched together India’s economy, removing fragmentation.

GST was a milestone, making “One Nation, One Tax” a reality.

For the first time, India became a truly unified common market.

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