🧵The Prices Are Too Damn High:
Trump's Tariffs are Hitting Americans Hard
Donald Trump loved to promise that other people would pay for his schemes. Mexico would pay for the wall. China would pay for the tariffs. Cute. Here’s the correction: other people don’t pay. You do.
Your kid. Your neighbor who works nights. The person at the hamburger joint sliding fries across the counter. Tariffs are a stealth sales tax — invisible, regressive, and perfectly designed to hurt people who can’t afford it.
This is Tax Scam 2.0. He calls it “tough on trade.” You call it “where did my paycheck go?”
How the Con Works (No Econ Class Required)
A retailer imports a $100 pair of work boots. The administration slaps a 20% tariff on them. The importer now owes $20. Who pays? Not the factory overseas. Not the CEO of the importing firm. You do — the price on the shelf goes up. That $100 pair becomes $120. Then your state charges sales tax on that $120. You just paid a tax on a tax. Congratulations. You’re in the art of the deal.
Tariffs don’t just hit things labeled “imported.” They hit supply chains: screws, bolts, steel for equipment, the fabric for jeans, the oil used to fry fries. When the inputs get more expensive, everything downstream becomes more expensive. It’s sneaky. It’s stupid. And it’s working exactly how the people selling the idea want it to.
September Reality: Kitchen-Table Examples
This is not some theory for policy nerds. This is what people are seeing in their carts and paychecks.
Lunch got pricier: Tariffs on inputs like cooking oil, packaging, and beef push up the price of a burger and fries. That $8 lunch now stings more because restaurants either raise prices or cut staff. Fewer workers, smaller portions, more salt — something’s gotta give.
Diapers and formula: These aren’t luxuries. Tariffs on inputs and on finished baby goods make diapers and formula more expensive. That’s not a talking point; it’s a credit-card bill at the end of the month for parents who can’t afford round two.
Work boots and jeans: Stuff blue-collar people actually need to keep working — clothing, boots, gloves — costs more when tariffs raise the price of imported fabric and finished goods. A man who fixes roofs doesn’t care about Swiss watch tariffs; he cares that his boots don’t fall apart.
Hardware and home basics: Tariffs on steel, lumber components, or imported tools drive up the price of nails, drills, hammers — the stuff you buy at the hardware store to fix the leaky roof yourself. Suddenly the DIY job becomes “pay the contractor or go hungry.”
Small shops getting crushed: Local shops that import an outsized share of their inventory burn through savings to keep prices stable — until they can’t. That’s when they either close or raise prices and lose customers. Both outcomes are bad.
Those are the things people actually worry about: dinner, diapers, boots, fixing the house.
Why This Is Worse Than a Regular Sales Tax
It’s invisible — you don’t see “tariff” on the receipt. You just see “new price.” That makes political outrage harder to marshal.
It’s regressive — poorer households spend a larger share of income on goods, so an across-the-board price increase eats them up first. A millionaire sees a $50 price hike on a jacket and keeps streaming; a single parent chooses between formula and electricity.
It’s taxed twice — state sales taxes are percentage-based. So when your diaper pack becomes 15% more expensive, the state taxes that inflated price. You just paid tax on the tax.
It hits jobs and hours — small restaurants and shops either pass along costs or cut labor. Both reduce worker income and spike local hardship. The policy’s “protecting jobs” talking point rings hollow if the people who actually work in the protected industries are laid off because their supply chain costs ballooned.
Trump’s Gaslighting, Simplified
“The Chinese will pay,” Trump insists. Same line he used about other fantasy payers. It’s performative. The receipts don’t lie. When companies publicly say they’re raising prices because of tariffs, when a neighborhood kid’s soccer cleats cost two grocery trips, when a diner shrinks its portions — that’s the truth.
You don’t need econ modeling to hate this. You need a grocery list and a paycheck.
The Political Angle (and the One-Liner That Slaps)
Here’s the simple swing: once people understand who’s actually paying, this policy loses. It’s political kryptonite — but only if you tell the story right.
One-liners to use on ads, social posts, or rallies:
Trump promised to lower prices day 1. Instead he raised them with his crazy tariffs.
He said China would pay for the tariffs but its you paying them on everything you buy.
Trump calls his tariff scheme ‘winning.’ We call that theft.”
Make the enemy visceral. Don’t talk about “macro effects.” Talk about the mom choosing between formula and rent. Talk about the guy who has to choose work boots or gas for the truck. That’s how you win hearts and votes.
How to Beat the Scam (Tactical Stuff)
Name it: Call tariffs what they are—a hidden sales tax. Repeat it.
Show receipts: Use before/after prices for a handful of household staples — diapers, a burger, a pair of work boots, a pack of screws. Real numbers, real pain.
Humanize: One quote from a parent, a restaurant worker, a small-store owner hits harder than a paragraph of modeling.
Flip the script: If Trump brags about “tariff revenue,” reply: “That’s your money. He’s bragging about stealing from your groceries.”
Closing — Short and Mean
Trump’s tariffs are the perfect grift: it looks like toughness, acts like patriotism, and works like a tax on poor people. He sells you the drama of a trade war and punches your household budget. If you want to see who paid for the wall, look at your receipts. If you want to see who’s paying for the tariffs, look at your groceries.
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🧵Fear Factory
Turning Point isn't a Debate Organization, its a Conflict Machine
Charlie Kirk didn’t invent conflict entrepreneurship, but he sure helped to perfect it. He is the prototype of a generation of right wing internet entrepreneurs who figured out that the surest way to build power, attention, and money otherwise off limits to them is not by governing, legislating, or even persuading—it’s by manufacturing outrage and monetizing it.
From the garage to the donor class
Kirk founded Turning Point USA in 2012 at just 18 years old but he wasn’t some grassroots kid hustling alone. He had a mentor, Tea Party activist Bill Montgomery, and very quickly he had a benefactor: Foster Friess, a conservative megadonor who bankrolled much of the group’s early work. That early money mattered. It allowed TPUSA to scale fast—staff, merch, events, and a social media strategy that turned “triggering the libs” into a donor-driven business model.
By 2015, Kirk had what every young conservative hustler of the early digital age wanted: legitimacy with the Republican elite. He was on panels, quoted in political press, and standing on the floor of the Republican National Convention in 2016 being profiled as the future of conservatism.
🧵A Blue Tsunami Is Headed for Virginia and New Jersey:
Out-Party Fundamentals Are About to Open a Can of Whoop Ass on the GOP
Sometimes life comes full circle.
Almost ten years ago, I was putting out a forecast in 2017 projecting a big win for Democrat Ralph Northam over his Republican opponent, Ed Gillespie in the 2017 Virginia gubernatorial race.
That race was widely treated—by media and the conventional wisdom—as a knife-edge toss-up. Yet my polling with Quentin Kidd at the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University consistently tracked a Democratic lead of at least six points.
How were we so confident? Because fundamentals matter. Because in-party/out-party dynamics—specifically whether your party holds the White House—are a heavy anchor pulling against your performance in off-year races. Virginia, above all, is fertile ground for the midterm effect. Once a new party moves into the White House, Virginia tends to rebuff it, amplifying that national trending through local elections.
When the Nazis sold themselves to Germany in the early 1930s, they didn’t just promise jobs, glory, and a return to greatness—they promised a national makeover. And like all authoritarians, their definition of “cleaning up” had less to do with fixing the economy and more to do with purging poor people.
The Reich was obsessed with visual order. Cities were to be spotless, streets safe, public behavior disciplined, and every human being was expected to conform to the Nazi ideal: healthy, hardworking, racially “pure,” and loyal to the state.
If you didn’t fit, you were labeled Asozial—“asocial.” This was not just a slur; it was a bureaucratic category, written into policy and enforced with police power. And it covered a broad swath of people the regime saw as “blight”: the homeless, the jobless, alcoholics, drug users, petty criminals, beggars, the mentally ill, sex workers, and even some single mothers and LGBTQ people.
While he was in prison, the German version of Club Fed, for trying to execute a coup, Hitler wrote Mein Kampf — part autobiography, part revenge manifesto, part how-to guide for dismantling the post–World War I order.
It wasn’t subtle. He said, outright:
“The reunification of German-Austria with the Motherland… must be carried out.”
And he was clear the borders of Germany should expand:
“It is not the preservation of peace, but the expansion of the people’s living space that is the most pressing task of our time.”
That’s “living space” (Lebensraum) — for Germans only — at the expense of anyone already living there. In fact, you may not know this, but once they killed off all the Jews in Eastern Europe their next step was supposed to be turning the death camps onto the rest of Eastern European-another 40 million people who they saw as racially inferior.
Trump’s tariffs are finally here—and they’re hitting your wallet like a second income tax. He promised China would pay. Instead, American families and small businesses are footing the $29.6 billion bill. Here’s what he’s not telling you.
In July 2025, the U.S. government brought in $29.6 billion in tariff revenue. That’s not a typo. That’s nearly $30 billion in a single month—triple the average from previous years. It’s the kind of hockey-stick spike that should set off alarms. But to hear Donald Trump tell it, this is a triumph. “We’re making money again,” he crows at rallies. “Other countries are finally paying!”
Except they’re not. We are.
That money isn’t coming from China. It’s not coming from Mexico. It’s not being extracted from globalist trade cartels or shady overseas middlemen. It’s being paid by American families. By small businesses. By Etsy sellers, knife makers, Hallmark, Walmart, and yes—by you.
The South Switched Teams but Kept the Same Ideology
There’s a favorite talking point on the American right: “Democrats were the party of slavery. Democrats were the party of Jim Crow.”
If you're sick of that, this 🧵is for you.
There’s a favorite talking point on the American right: “Democrats were the party of slavery. Democrats were the party of Jim Crow.” They throw it out like a grenade in political arguments, as if it were a trump card that delegitimizes any modern conversation about race, justice, or the parties’ respective commitments to equality. And yes, it’s true — the Democratic Party was the party of slavery. It was the party of Jim Crow.
But that was then. And this is now.
The part they always leave out — intentionally — is the political realignment that took place in the wake of the Civil Rights Movement. Because if you follow the story of what happened after Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, you’ll find a transformation not of values, but of party. The party label changed. The ideology didn’t. And the South — always the stronghold of racial hierarchy — found a new political home in the Republican Party.