Pressure and Chaosization.
The russian offensive in Donetsk region has become an indicator of how the enemy applies its accumulated experience, compensates for its own weaknesses, and skillfully exploits ours.
Photo: settlement of Zorya, after an airstrike on one of the AFV UAV positions. 1/
The russian offensive in Donetsk region has become an indicator of how the enemy applies its accumulated experience, compensates for its own weaknesses, and skillfully exploits ours.
Photo: settlement of Zorya, after an airstrike on one of the AFV UAV positions. 1/
For me personally and for our unit, the russian spring push in the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka area coincided in time with a change of unit (though not of sector), style, and structure of work. 2/
A very short pause before re-entering the sector between Myrnohrad and Kostiantynivka—where we had previously worked with mixed success and, in breaks between battles, further west—turned out to be a time of abrupt changes. For the worse. 3/
In a very short period, the russians sharply increased the range of their FPVs along logistical routes, which led to growing losses among all units operating in this direction. In addition, they densely saturated the first echelon with drones, complicating any movement or work in general. 4/
Airstrikes on our positions also focused on knocking out pilots. Logical and expected. We slow their advance and inflict losses. In some areas where the enemy cannot move covertly, one could practically map the bodies of occupiers destroyed by SOU drone operators. 5/
This text is an attempt at interim conclusions and personal reflections. I already described in earlier pieces the short prehistory of the current situation and how the enemy broke through our defenses near Vozdvyzhenka. 6/
https://x.com/solonko1648/status/1935275784148590939?s=46&t=eichPAwPRyJPeQ84VlLOjA
Let’s move directly to the results. In this zone, the russians entered complex terrain. In some areas, the use of vehicles turned out to be nearly impossible. This refers to the Koptyeve area and the territory adjacent to the Kazennyi Torets River, western bank. 7/
Here, the enemy pushed forward with infantry. Only after seizing significant territory on the western bank of the river did they begin pulling artillery into the Koptyeve area. Armor operates around Malynivka or Yablunivka. This is still a risky move, which in most cases ends in losses.
For example, the other day in the Malynivka area, the enemy made two armored attempts within an hour. Both burned. 8/
For example, the other day in the Malynivka area, the enemy made two armored attempts within an hour. Both burned. 8/
Behind the enemy infantry, their drone pilots follow, creating major problems. This is one of the key issues: countering their pilots. The crisis in the sector escalated as the enemy turned the tactic of slipping behind our lines into mass practice, sowing chaos in the defense. 9/
As I wrote earlier, now limited resources are also spent working inside our own positions. This concerns both drones and the use of infantry units for search and clearing. With wide enough “gates” for slipping into the breakthrough zone and the ability to partially suppress our assets, the enemy can continue creating problems west of the Kazennyi Torets for quite a long time. 10/
By the way, about this. The information space exploded when the enemy appeared in the Zolotyi Kolodiaz area. Sensing progress, the enemy threw in more and more units. All according to the book. And we got what we got. 11/
What DeepState maps show in this direction… let’s just say, I have no idea how one could map what was actually happening here. In some places you needed eyes and ears on the back of your head. Though we are more or less adapting to this tactic. Still, the systemic nature of their attempts to “chaoticize” our defense is very visible. 12/
Since the “Zolotyi Kolodiaz bombshell,” many events have followed—attempts at stabilization, our countermoves on this very uncomfortable board, and so on. Here it makes sense to return to the ground configuration, so to speak. For such progress, in June–July, the Russians needed to: 13/
• Capture the fortified area around the village of Koptyeve. For those who began following the situation only when it became very difficult, this might be news—but the battles there were fierce. The enemy succeeded.
• Secure a reliable crossing point over the river, namely Razine. Here, the enemy set up crossings through which infantry is mass-transferred. This was the path toward Rodynske and the Stakhanov mine.
• Capture Novotoretske as a blocking line against our actions from the north and as another river crossing to secure Razine and provide space for further deployment. For the same purpose, they would also need to take Shakhove–Volodymyrivka. 14/
• Secure a reliable crossing point over the river, namely Razine. Here, the enemy set up crossings through which infantry is mass-transferred. This was the path toward Rodynske and the Stakhanov mine.
• Capture Novotoretske as a blocking line against our actions from the north and as another river crossing to secure Razine and provide space for further deployment. For the same purpose, they would also need to take Shakhove–Volodymyrivka. 14/
Firm control of Razine, Novotoretske, and previously Koptyeve gave the Russians options and opportunities. Meanwhile, we continue to suffer from the same problems, month after month, year after year. 15/
Tactically, this is also a hint for us. Taking these key points would nearly cut off the russian breakthrough—at least regarding holding Rodynske and Dobropillia. The only question is whether we have the capabilities. That’s another topic. 16/
AFU made countermoves, now the russians are making theirs. The question is not only what they will be, but where. I think the matter now stands such that they are doing this in several places. Here as well. A counterstep. 17/
https://x.com/clement_molin/status/1960747799659659337?t=O4NdDl9tvadL3SjlTNx7TA&s=19
They will do everything to avoid being pushed too far back from Zolotyi Kolodiaz. I think they still hope that, beyond the prize of the Pokrovsk agglomeration, they might break through the new defensive line westward into the rear of Kramatorsk. And Dobropillia, as a staging base, is also highly valuable. 18/
They have many options simultaneously.
Will we have something to oppose them with? Or do we just need to avoid a critical collapse and buy time until the bloodthirsty gas station runs out of fuel—it’s hard for me to judge. I have little optimism. When it’s necessary, the butchers will come for you on foot. 19/
Will we have something to oppose them with? Or do we just need to avoid a critical collapse and buy time until the bloodthirsty gas station runs out of fuel—it’s hard for me to judge. I have little optimism. When it’s necessary, the butchers will come for you on foot. 19/
One thing can be said for certain: if we don’t decisively solve the problem of enemy pilots and EW—with all these Rubicons and other undoubtedly serious players—our problems will only continue to grow. This understanding is gradually spreading. We’ll see if what could be an effective solution spreads as well. 20/
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