Thread by @ericjackson

People still don’t get how huge $OPEN can be.
Just from iBuying alone — before mortgage, title, AI, or international — this is a $315+/share stock. Let me show you the math 🧵👇

In 2024, the U.S. had ~4M existing home sales.
Opendoor sold ~13.5K homes.
That’s just 0.3% national market share.
Even at that sliver of share, OPEN generated $5.2B in revenue and $400M in gross profit.

Normalize the housing market back to 5M transactions/year. (Recall 2021 was over 6M existing home sales)

If OPEN captured 10% share → that’s 500,000 homes sold annually. (Recall that Kaz has said that’s the goal which was also Elon’s Tesla goal)

OPEN’s 2024 unit economics:
•Revenue per home ≈ $385K
•Gross profit per home ≈ $30K
•Gross margin ≈ 7.7%

At 500K homes → $192B revenue and $15B gross profit.

Now apply realistic public market multiples:
•At 15.42× Market Cap/Gross Profit (where $CVNA currently trades but it will likely keep going up),
•$15B × 15.42 = $228B market cap.

Divide that by today’s ~723M shares outstanding →
That’s about $315/share.

And remember:
👉 This is just iBuying.
👉 No mortgage or title fees layered on.
👉 No headcount reductions.
👉 No international expansion.

Those levers all add massive upside.

This is why I say:
$OPEN is not a meme stock. It’s a cult stock.
It’s a compounding platform with clear line-of-sight to $315/share on iBuying alone.
Everything else is gravy.

Cc @Brandonlutnick