Thread by @TSaukur

Trump thinks his two big moves —
🔹 Massive tariffs
🔹 A $100,000 H1B visa fee hike

will “protect American jobs” & strengthen the US economy. But, in reality, they’ll backfire — hurting US competitiveness while becoming a boon for India, China, EU, UK, UAE & Singapore. 🧵

1) How Trump's Tariffs will backfire the US-
The India-EU perspective:

When U.S. President Donald Trump called on Europe to punish India with tariffs of up to 100 percent, Brussels chose a very different path. Instead of following Washington’s pressure tactics, the EU

doubled down on its partnership with New Delhi, unveiling a “New Strategic EU-India Agenda” that aims to reshape ties across trade, technology, security and climate. The new strategy was announced in September 2025, shortly after a high-profile visit by EU commissioners to India.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen framed the decision in simple terms: “Europe is open for business. And we are ready to invest in our shared future with India.” Under the agenda, both sides aim to finalise a long-awaited free trade agreement by the end of 2025,

a deal that could become one of the largest of its kind globally. The strategy goes far beyond trade. It outlines cooperation in semiconductors, digital innovation, and a potential EU-India Startup Partnership. It also prioritises clean energy — with joint projects on green

hydrogen, offshore wind, and sustainable finance — alongside defence cooperation, including naval exercises in the Indian Ocean. Connectivity is also a key focus with IMEEC Corridor (Tho its challenging now).

2) How Trump's Tariffs will backfire,
The India-China-Russia way:

First let's cover China. Amid Galwan clash, India-China ties hit new low where US & India were together to balance China. But now, its the other way round. India has taken a more pragmatic approach to deal with China.
It all started in 2024 when Modi met Xi at Kazan, Russia on

sidelines of the BRICS summit where both the leaders agreed to resume diplomatic talks. Now in 2025, Chinese FM Wang Yi visited India where there were several outcomes. Both sides agreed to resume bilateral talks, aimed to strengthen trade ties. Both sides agreed to support each

other in hosting successful diplomatic events. The Chinese side will support India in hosting the 2026 BRICS Summit. The Indian side will support China in hosting the 2027 BRICS Summit. Both sides agreed to resume direct flight connectivity, Both sides also agreed on the

facilitation of visas to tourists, businesses, media and other visitors in both directions. Both sides agreed to facilitate trade and investment flows between the two countries through concrete measures, further maintain peace at border areas where both sides have disengaged.

In a significant move during Wang Yi's visit. China has lifted all curbs on its exports of fertilizers, Rare Earth minerals, as well as tunnel boring machines to India. India's auto industries will benefit alot with this move.

Further in September, Modi visited 🇨🇳 for the SCO

Summit where he even held bilateral talks with Xi Jingping where both sides emphasized on a renewed bilateral talks, enhance trade ties. India-China have recently even opened up & resumed border trade as well. Modi further even met Putin, Xi Jingping & posted a picture which went

viral.

The Russia Perspective- amid Trump's Tariffs threat, Jaishankar visited Moscow, where he even met President Putin. Jaishankar’s visit was marked by high-level engagements and tangible outcomes aimed at bolstering India-Russia cooperation. He co-chaired the IRIGC-TEG with

Russia's 1st Dy PM Denis Manturov. The session focused on achieving a revised bilateral trade of $100 Bn by 2030 by addressing tariff, non-tariff barriers, logistics, promoting connectivity, streamlining payment mechanisms. A significant step was the finalisation of the terms of

reference for the India-Eurasian Economic Union Free Trade Agreement, promising to enhance trade ties. India has further refused to bow down to US pressure on stopping the purchase of Russian oil, instead India still continues to buy Russian oil & is also further going to

increase its purchase.

3) The UK 🇬🇧 way- UK & India clinched a major Trade deal in 'new era' of Trump tariffs. Trump's tariffs have prompted countries across the world to redouble efforts to seek new trade partners and people familiar with the UK-India talks said the turmoil

had sharpened the focus to get a deal done. The deal, which will lower tariffs on goods such as whisky, allow British firms to compete for Indian contracts and Indian workers to more easily work in Britain, is significant for both economies.
It marks India opening up its long-

-guarded markets, including automobiles. India's trade ministry said 99% of Indian exports would benefit from zero duty under the deal, including textiles, while Britain will see reductions on 90% of its tariff lines.

4) The $100,000 H1B visa fee hike-
The most important one:

This fee hike is a Boon for the Indian employees & countries like UAE, Singapore, UK will also be rewarded with this scheme.

• India perspective- for many years Indians went to the US for making their career, working at Silicon valley. All thanks to the golden ticket the H1B.

Now the dream has come to an end to settle in the US. But this maybe a boon for India's tech industry. The case of brain drain. For years, policymakers & economists have worried about the exodus of top talent. If this outflow stops down by the clampdown of H1B visa, India stands

to benefit in the long run. Talent retention will boost India's innovation with top engineers, scientists staying back & taking the lead. This talent can be used to solve domestic problems, create indigenous technology & building India's competitiveness globally. Indian startups

Could also mature faster venture deeper into tech, AI startups. India can adopt the China way of how to retain the talent.

• How countries like UK, UAE, Singapore, EU stand to benefit with the H1B visa fee hike- Despite progress, challenges still persist such as Red tapism,

Inconsistent policy framework, slow judicial systems, lack of infrastructure. There also lacks funds for research. At such times nations like Singapore, UAE, UK, EU have already solved these issues, they have solutions & they are as it is aiming to invite more Indian talent which

Will help contribute to boost their respective economies. With Trump's new H1B visa fee hike, much of the Indian talent if not retained back home, alot will shift, settle & make their careers successful in countries like Singapore, UAE, UK which have quality infrastructure, low

tax, better judicial systems. UK, EU traditionally have strong support for research at university levels. To conclude- with all these Trump's moves. Nations like India, Singapore, UAE, EU, UK, China stand to benefit, with US' economy will be hurt.

Sources- TOI, ET, India Today.