The fatal weakness of democracy is that it only lasts as long as everybody agrees to the rules, many of which are just the unwritten rules of fair play. As soon as one side decides it will no longer honor those agreements, then the other side must do the same, or lose all power.
Up until roughly the 1990s, there was an acceptance, by Republicans and Democrats alike, that there were certain things you just didn’t do, and certain places you just didn’t go. Democrats abided by these agreements long after Republicans began abandoning them one by one.
Republicans got tired of being in the minority in Congress for most of the previous 60+ years and decided that “the rules” of fair play were not working for them. The rise of Gingrich, Limbaugh, et al, was the death knell for democracy in America.
When the Supreme Court said “screw states rights” and used Bush v. Gore in 2000 as a naked power grab, it was a clear signal that we had moved from democracy to pure power politics. But Democrats couldn’t meet the moment. They kept playing by the accepted rules.
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2026: Voters, upset by the Trump recession, vote blue in the midterms.
2028: Angry at the economic collapse, voters give Democrats the White House and Congress and swear they’ll never vote GOP again.
2030: Voters put Republicans back in charge in Congress.
Wash, rinse, repeat.
This, if you’re wondering, is why Republicans never course-correct. They don’t have to. They pull the same shit every time, voters punish them for a midterm and maybe the next presidential election. Then, like an amnesiac, they hand the keys right back to them two years later.
I remember in 2008, the Democrats won sweeping victories. The Bush economy was a mess, and voters swore they’d never vote Republican again. Two years later, they handed the House right back to the GOP. “Well, they learned their lesson,” the voters said.
One of the most encouraging developments of this election is that Kamala Harris has clearly learned something that Democrats have traditionally refused to accept:
For purposes of winning an election, policy doesn’t matter. (1/)
Policy matters very much AFTER YOU GET ELECTED. But governing and campaigning are two different things. The voters who are interested in policy are 1) in the minority and 2) already know who they’re voting for. The people you have to convince won’t be convinced by policy. (2/)
Those of us who know and care about policy already know what either candidate is going to do. It doesn’t need to be said. We’ve already decided.
The undecideds are low-information voters who have to be won at a gut level. (3/)
So let me tell you why I’m really encouraged about Harris right now:
She understands—in a way Democrats have largely resisted understanding for the last three years—that voters judge the economy based on prices. And she is offering proposals that go right at that problem.
Republicans clearly understand how effective Harris’s proposals are likely to be and they are currently screaming their heads off about “price controls,” hoping to either get her to back off of a winning strategy, or to convince people that action on prices is somehow a bad idea.
Remember this: if, as Democrats, we ever see that Republicans are screaming their fool heads off about something, we should double down on it and keep doubling down on it. When Republicans are screaming, that means we’re winning.
There has been an uptick the last 24 hours in Democrats suggesting Biden tell the Supreme Court to go pound sand. That’s a position I share.
But it is important to understand that there are some practical limitations to that, and it depends upon the ruling. (1/)
To wit—there’s nothing Biden can do about a decision like Dobbs, which gives states the power to decide. Unless he’s ready to send the Army into Mississippi to protect abortion clinics, he can’t just snap his fingers and make that ruling go away. (2/)
However, if the Supreme Court issues a ruling that forbids Biden from taking an action, yeah, he can ignore that and do whatever he wants. Because what are they going to do about it? Does the Supreme Court have a police force? LOL. (3/)
If you ever find yourself wondering “Why do old people have such outsized power while nobody listens to young people?”—consider this:
1) In every single election since such data have been tracked, under 25s have had the lowest turnout of any age demographic. No exceptions. (1/)
2) In every single election since such data have been tracked, over 65s have had the highest turnout of any age group.
3) Politicians’ first priority is getting elected or reelected. When they ask “Who’s going to vote?” they inevitably come to this conclusion: “Fuck those kids.”
They don’t care if you protest. “Have fun, kids. Protest all you like. You won’t vote, and I’ll still be here after the novelty of protesting wears off. When you buy a house and have some kids, you’ll start voting, and then you’ll vote for me because you know my name.”
Folks, there are a couple things going on right now that you just need to ignore and stop worrying about:
1) Polling is completely, 100% fucked. If you believe Trump is winning by 13% in Nevada and leading in New Jersey, step away from Twitter and get help.
(1/)
2) Six months out from an election, people have a tendency to spout off. They’re pissed off about one thing or another, and they’re just talking out of their asses right now. “Screw Biden, I’m gonna vote for RFK!” In a few months, when things get serious, they’ll get real.
(2/)
Every election, polls show that voters start to “come home” in the last few weeks of a campaign. That’s because at some point, people stop blowing off steam and start thinking about what they’re doing. It isn’t that anything has really changed. It’s just “shit-or-get” time.