Trump's H-1B changes will trigger a ₹25,000 crore financial crisis in India that NO ONE is talking about.
While everyone debates immigration, a massive loan default tsunami is building.
Here's the hidden economic bomb about to explode: 🧵
While everyone debates immigration, a massive loan default tsunami is building.
Here's the hidden economic bomb about to explode: 🧵
The numbers are brutal:
→ H-1B IT workers: 32% (2003) → 65% (2024)
→ US computer science grad unemployment: 7.5%
→ Indian students with US education loans: 70-80% of lender portfolios
Most people think this is just about visas. They're missing the financial destruction.
→ H-1B IT workers: 32% (2003) → 65% (2024)
→ US computer science grad unemployment: 7.5%
→ Indian students with US education loans: 70-80% of lender portfolios
Most people think this is just about visas. They're missing the financial destruction.
Here's what's actually happening:
No H-1B visa = no US job → thousands of Indian STEM graduates return home with ₹60-80L US loans they can't repay.
Indian salaries (₹15-25L) can't cover US loan EMIs designed for ₹80L+ US salaries.
No H-1B visa = no US job → thousands of Indian STEM graduates return home with ₹60-80L US loans they can't repay.
Indian salaries (₹15-25L) can't cover US loan EMIs designed for ₹80L+ US salaries.
The loan companies about to get destroyed:
→ HDFC Credila: ₹25,200 crore exposure to US/UK loans
→ Auxilo, Avanse: 70-80% portfolios are US STEM loans
→ Default rates will skyrocket as graduates return unemployed
This is their 2008 subprime moment.
→ HDFC Credila: ₹25,200 crore exposure to US/UK loans
→ Auxilo, Avanse: 70-80% portfolios are US STEM loans
→ Default rates will skyrocket as graduates return unemployed
This is their 2008 subprime moment.
But here's the irony:
Trump wants to protect American jobs → restricts H-1B → forces US companies to hire Indian talent in India instead of bringing them to America.
Result: India gets the jobs AND keeps the talent at home.
Trump wants to protect American jobs → restricts H-1B → forces US companies to hire Indian talent in India instead of bringing them to America.
Result: India gets the jobs AND keeps the talent at home.
India's massive wins from H-1B restrictions:
→ US companies forced to set up Global Capability Centers in India - Google, Microsoft, Amazon accelerating India operations
→ TCS, Infosys getting outsourcing contracts they couldn't dream of - No other country can replace India's IT talent pool
→ US companies forced to set up Global Capability Centers in India - Google, Microsoft, Amazon accelerating India operations
→ TCS, Infosys getting outsourcing contracts they couldn't dream of - No other country can replace India's IT talent pool
The smart money play:
AVOID: Education loan companies
LONG: Indian IT companies with strong outsourcing capabilities
WATCH: Companies benefiting from reverse brain drain
This is the biggest wealth transfer from loan companies to IT firms in Indian history.
AVOID: Education loan companies
LONG: Indian IT companies with strong outsourcing capabilities
WATCH: Companies benefiting from reverse brain drain
This is the biggest wealth transfer from loan companies to IT firms in Indian history.
The timeline for destruction:
Q2 2025: First wave of H-1B rejections
Q3 2025: Mass graduate returns to India
Q4 2025: Loan defaults begin cascading
2026: Education loan companies face existential crisis
Q2 2025: First wave of H-1B rejections
Q3 2025: Mass graduate returns to India
Q4 2025: Loan defaults begin cascading
2026: Education loan companies face existential crisis
If you're an Indian family with kids planning US education:
STOP.
Calculate the math.
₹80L loan + uncertain visa + unemployment risk = potential financial ruin
The American Dream became an Indian nightmare.
STOP.
Calculate the math.
₹80L loan + uncertain visa + unemployment risk = potential financial ruin
The American Dream became an Indian nightmare.
The macro shift happening:
2000-2020: India → America (brain drain)
2025+: America → India (forced reverse migration)
Every Indian STEM graduate forced to return = qualified talent pool for Indian companies.
2000-2020: India → America (brain drain)
2025+: America → India (forced reverse migration)
Every Indian STEM graduate forced to return = qualified talent pool for Indian companies.
Bottom line:
Trump's H-1B changes aren't just about immigration. They're triggering the largest restructuring of global tech talent in 30 years.
Every crisis creates millionaires.
Will you see the opportunity hidden inside the chaos?
Trump's H-1B changes aren't just about immigration. They're triggering the largest restructuring of global tech talent in 30 years.
Every crisis creates millionaires.
Will you see the opportunity hidden inside the chaos?
If you found this thread valuable:
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Most people see H-1B restrictions as a problem.
Smart investors see it as the biggest arbitrage opportunity of the decade.
→ Retweet the first tweet to share with your network
→ Follow me for more financial insights others miss
Most people see H-1B restrictions as a problem.
Smart investors see it as the biggest arbitrage opportunity of the decade.
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