How can Germany evolve its underdeveloped strategic culture to better defend liberal democracy against autocratic encroachment? What lessons can be drawn from Israel and China—without copying their military doctrines? A short 🧵 /1 
Germany’s Zeitenwende was a start, but we need a bolder and more reflexive mindset to counter Russia’s revisionism, China’s hybrid interference, and Iran’s meddling #CRINK. What can we selectively adapt from allies and rivals? /2
Israel’s “Campaign Between the Wars” doctrine demonstrates early threat disruption—e.g., targeted cyber ops or sanctions. While Germans clearly would not back kinetic active measures, we urgently need to counter transnational repression, espionage, prepositioning, and sabotage /3
For example, Germany should boost public-private tech partnerships to shield critical infrastructure from China’s cyber espionage and Russian sabotage. De-risking is not enough, proactivity is essential /4
Yet Israel’s strategic culture has downsides: global backlash against pre-emptive strikes and an increasingly militarised society. Germany must steer clear of this pitfall, combining military deterrence, active defence, diplomacy and soft power to lead liberally in the EU /5
What about China? The PLA’s ‘active defense’ (积极防御) safeguards not just territory but regime stability. While rooted in regime paranoia, it offers insights for Germany to strengthen liberal democracy’s resilience in a volatile world—democracy needs to be defended, too / 6
Xi Jinping’s “struggle” mindset (斗争) sees encirclement everywhere. While we reject CCP authoritarianism, Germany needs vigilance against hybrid threats—China’s economic coercion, Russia’s election meddling, Iran’s proxies. Coordinated democratic resilience must be the goal /7
We need to develop a new #GrandStrategy to overcome Germany’s ‘Zivilmacht’ limits, like countering hybrid threats. The Cold War took decades, won via Ostpolitik’s carrots and rearmament’s sticks—no hot war is needed. This requires a lot of political will and collective effort /8
9/ And if you think I’m pushing militarisation, think again. Our democracy won’t survive without a bolder strategic mindset—non-kinetic pushback to defend liberal institutions and democratic values against autocratic threats /9
What do you think? How can we unlearn overgeneralised lessons from Germany’s past, challenge foreign policy dogma, and relearn to face today’s autocratic challenges? #GrandStrategy #StrategicCulture /10
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