After 3 weeks of conflict, a new #Syria-#SDF deal has been reached -- 🧵:
- Ceasefire & pull back from frontlines;
- Gov't MOI entry to #Qamishli, #Hasakeh;
- #SDF integration as individuals into (1) 3 Brigades in 1 MOD Division & (2) 1 #Kobani Brigade in an MOD #Aleppo Division
- #SDF local Asayish to integrate under MOI command;
- #SDF heavy weapons handover;
- #SDF 'autonomous administration' dissolution & integration into gov't institutions;
- Kurdish rights guaranteed;
- Return of IDPs;
- Govt control of all national assets, infrastructure.
The #SDF integration into the state will take time. MOD 'Brigades' will be formed but the process will be on an individual basis: settlement, vetting & reintegration. Elsewhere in #Syria, this has taken weeks, sometimes months.
Presence of #PKK & #Assad remnants = complication.
As part of a US-mediated deal, the #SDF withdrew its military force from #Aleppo city's Kurdish-majority districts of Sheikh Maqsoud & al-Ashrafiyeh in April 2025 -- leaving behind "Asayish" security.
But make no mistake, that was not in any way a demilitarization of the area.
In the months since, the #SDF's Asayish force in #Aleppo have:
a) remained heavily armed, equipped with anti-tank weapons, mortars, recoilless rifles & heavy machine guns;
b) acquired additional weaponry, including suicide drones;
c) continued to dig tunnels for military use.
At every brief escalation between the #SDF's Asayish & gov't forces in #Aleppo, a huge wave of online disinformation has swept the 'information' space.
There are no clean hands here, but the #SDF's intensive effort to shape the narrative with fake news has been staggering.
In 12 days, #Syria will celebrate the 1yr anniversary of #Assad's fall.
As we approach that milestone, actors hostile to #Syria's transitional gov't have escalated their attempts to trigger spirals of violence -- from #ISIS to anti-gov't insurgents & militia in #Suwayda.
A 🧵:
Late on Nov 22, suspected anti-gov't insurgents slaughtered a Sunni husband & wife outside #Homs, setting fire to the woman's body & using their blood to write sectarian slogans on walls.
It was clearly designed to trigger a retaliatory spiral, but it was contained & no deaths.
BUT, #Alawite figures then issued a public call for protests calling for federalism (a provocative trigger for many).
#Syria gov't MOI forces were deployed en masse to protect protests. At one point, anti-gov't insurgents opened fire, but amid localized tensions; no deaths.
#Syria is set to join the Counter-#ISIS coalition, following months of confidence-building, intelligence sharing, 'tests' & at least x6 joint raids with U.S. forces.
At the core of this relationship is #Syria's Interior Ministry & General Intelligence Directorate --not the MOD.
#Syria's MOI (under Minister Anas Khattab) & General Intelligence (led by Hussein Salama) have coordinated closely with U.S. intelligence, @USSOCOM, @CENTCOM & @CJTFOIR since the Spring of 2025, on 2 goals:
- Defeating #ISIS
- Removing remnants & weapons of #Iran & its militias
@USSOCOM @CENTCOM @CJTFOIR In May, #Syria's MOI was provided with US intelligence on a huge network of #IRGC bunkers, safe-houses, tunnels & weapons caches centered around the village of al-Hari near al-Bukamal -- across the #Iraq border.
Days of #Syria MOI raids followed, seizing tonnes of weaponry.
#Suwayda has witnessed a recent spike in clashes between rival #Druze militias, while an #Assad regime General in command of the region's 'National Guard' has fired 2 commanders & all their men, stirring major tensions.
A key trigger was a recent visit by an American.
A 🧵:
Roughly a week ago, a controversial American "Tim Ballard" -- a QAnon follower, forced from his own NGO on sexual misconduct allegations, then expelled from the Mormon Church -- visited #Suwayda.
While there, he met #Druze cleric Hikmat al-Hijri & 'National Guard' commanders.
While in #Suwayda, Ballard told many of those he met that he was close to President Trump & was there on a "mission" on behalf of #America.
That created a narrative that a US gov't delegation was in #Suwayda, meeting with #Druze leaders -- something that'd have been huge news.
When #SDF leader Mazloum Abdi signed a framework agreement with #Syria's President al-Sharaa in March, it triggered nationwide celebrations rivaled only by #Assad's fall.
Yet 7 months later, none of the deal has been realized & now the 2 sides are engaged in heavy fighting. 🧵
In the past 7 months, the #SDF has come under *intense* US pressure to be flexible & move forward on a deal to integrate into the #Syria state.
But that pressure appears to have created a dynamic in which the #SDF has hardened its positions & backtracked on multiple commitments.
Since May 2025, locals in urban centers of #Raqqa & #Hasakeh have reported a *huge* intensification of #SDF tunnel construction -- and photos & video footage shows an extraordinary network of covered tunnel entry points in places like Tabqa, Raqqa, Hasakeh & more.