Thread by @RyanJ_Heath

Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData!

1. Quinshon Judkins is now the Browns’ early-down workhorse.

- 19 of 20 backfield carries

- All 3 opportunities inside the 10

Jerome Ford still had both 3rd-down targets, but Judkins is now in RB2 land.

@FantasyPtsData 2. With Jayden Reed out, Josh Jacobs (who else) became the Packers’ featured receiving weapon. Target shares:

Josh Jacobs - 36%
Matthew Golden - 16%
Dotayvion Wicks - 16%
Tucker Kraft - 16%
Romeo Doubs - 8%

This was Jacobs’ highest single-game target share since at least 2021.

@FantasyPtsData 3. Aaron Rodgers wanted Jaylen Warren more involved this week. And that’s exactly what we saw:

- 82% backfield carry share (up from 58%, 70% last two weeks)

- 2 of 3 backfield attempts inside the 5

- A 26.1% target share

Those shares were both career-highs.

@FantasyPtsData Gainwell scored on his only goal-line touch after two Warren attempts. But the play only happened due to a 3rd down end zone DPI.

Warren didn’t blow up the box score, but his 22.0 weighted opportunities were 4th-best among RBs in Week 3 pre-SNF.

I think this is real!

@FantasyPtsData 4. Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson combined for three fumbles lost.

TreVeyon Henderson’s resulting opportunity shares in the 2nd half:

- 9 of 12 backfield carries (75%)

- A 12.5% target share

Didn’t break any notable big plays, but maybe this sticks…

@FantasyPtsData 5. Over his last five games (all without Anthony Richardson), Jonathan Taylor is averaging:

- 128.0 rushing YPG
- 22.1 weighted opportunities per game
- 27.9 FPG

All three marks would have led all RBs last year.

@FantasyPtsData 6. Cam Ward is averaging a 74.1 passer rating through his first 3 career games.

That isn’t great, but several recent Round 1 QBs were worse in their first 3 games:

- Sam Darnold (72.0)
- Jared Goff (68.1)
- Caleb Williams (65.3)
- Bo Nix (61.8)
- Trevor Lawrence (60.3)

@FantasyPtsData 7. If there’s any silver lining to the Bengals' day...

I suppose it’s that Chase Brown saw a career-high 18.5% target share, and that 4 of Tahj Brooks’ 5 carries came in the 4th quarter of a blowout.

The bad news is that Brown gained three (3!!) total yards on 10 carries.

@FantasyPtsData 8. Jordan Mason was rested in the 4th quarter of this blowout.

Through the first three quarters:

- 76% backfield carry share

- 3 of 3 backfield touches inside the 10

Mason wasn’t targeted (not a surprise), but he’s at worst a high-end RB2 every week until Jones returns.

@FantasyPtsData 9. Davante Adams and Puka Nacua have combined for ___% of the Rams’ targets, by week:

Week 1: 65.5%
Week 2: 63.7%
Week 3: 67.6%

…A combined 65.7% TMS through three weeks.

That figure was at just 53% in Nacua’s and Kupp’s games together last year.

Both are every-week WR1s.

@FantasyPtsData 10. Jalen Hurts dropped back 37 times today. He only hit that mark four times last year.

The results:

A.J. Brown: 6 of 10 targets for 109 receiving yards and a TD (22.9 PPR points)

Devonta Smith: 8 of 9 for 60 receiving yards and a TD (20.0 PPR)

@FantasyPtsData 11. Within five games since the start of last season that Jalen Hurts has dropped back 35+ times, Devonta Smith averages 19.8 FPG.

Brown averages 23.6 FPG across the three games he played within that sample.

In all other games, that drops to 12.2 and 13.7 FPG.

@FantasyPtsData 12. Breece Hall’s backfield carry shares through three weeks:

W1: 70%
W2: 83%
W3: 60%

Hall did have a season-high 16.7% target share, but I fear we’re heading for a repeat of Hall’s 2024 in any games he isn’t obviously the Jets’ most explosive player on the field.

@FantasyPtsData 13. Bucky Irving has seen 83%, 65%, and 83% of the Buccaneers’ backfield weighted opportunities through three weeks.

For comparison, Irving had only one game (Week 18) above a 70% weighted opportunity share as a rookie.

My RB7 rest-of-season.

@FantasyPtsData 14. Ashton Jeanty received a 68% backfield carry share, a season-low (after getting 85% and 90% his previous two games).

Jeanty also didn’t see any of the team’s 3 targets to RBs.

@FantasyPtsData Before this week, Jeanty was the one I’d have bet on among rookie RBs to see the quickest bounce-back.

Instead, he takes a step back in usage.

@FantasyPtsData 15. Chris Rodriguez started for the Commanders and played the first drive. From there, we saw a three-way rotation.

Final backfield carry shares:

CRod - 48%
Bill - 35%
Jeremy McNichols - 17%

Rodriguez got the backfield’s only target.

Nobody here is particularly startable.

@FantasyPtsData 16. Darnell Mooney’s season so far:

Week 1: inactive
Week 2: A 19% target share in his first game back from injury
Week 3: A team-high 25.6% target share

Drake London had a 35.7% target share in Week 1, but hasn’t cracked 20% in either game since Mooney returned.

@FantasyPtsData 17. The Panthers’ backfield has meaningfully shifted away from Chuba Hubbard each of the past two weeks.

- Rico Dowdle received all 3 of the backfield’s carries inside the 10-yard line this week

- Dowdle had 2 of 2 last week

@FantasyPtsData - Hubbard has seen just a 63% carry share each of the past two weeks

He’ll be outside my top-24 RBs rest-of-season.

@FantasyPtsData 18. Christian Kirk immediately assumed the Texans’ WR2 role.

His 21.1% target share today marks the first time a Texans player aside from Nico Collins has exceeded 17% in any game this year.

It didn’t come with many fantasy points today, but Kirk is definitely in the FLEX mix.

@FantasyPtsData 19. I won’t be held to any solid Jaguars opinions until I review the route data and talk to our film charters, but…

I do wonder if Parker Washington (team-high 27.5% target share) was in the “BTJ role” from last week, running routes over the middle BTJ shied away from.

@FantasyPtsData 20. It seems that Troy Franklin’s Week 2 playing time and production surge was yet another Sean Payton trick, even with Evan Engram out.

As usual, Courtland Sutton went back to leading the way with a 32% target share, double anybody else on the team.

@FantasyPtsData 21. Omarion Hampton received all 21 of the Chargers’ backfield touches after Najee Harris left the game, appearing to have injured his Achilles.

Of particular note to me were Hampton’s 7 targets in this game, which matched this entire backfield’s total over the previous two.

@FantasyPtsData Hampton still wasn’t particularly efficient on the ground, but that’s not going to matter if he’s locked into an 80%+ backfield opportunity share for the rest of the year.

Are Kimani Vidal or Hassan Haskins stopping that? Doubt it.

Valuing Hampton as a top-12 RB rest-of-season.

@FantasyPtsData 22. Alvin Kamara has now failed to reach a 5% target share in 2 of the Saints’ 3 games this season.

That had previously happened only once across all of Kamara’s active games from 2021 through 2024.

Kamara wasn’t below a 12.0% target share in any game last year.

@FantasyPtsData 23. With Zach Charbonnet out, Kenneth Walker was deployed as a bellcow for the first three quarters.

Excluding the fourth quarter of a massive blowout, Walker saw 16 of 17 backfield carries and both touches inside the 5-yard line.

@FantasyPtsData 24. With CeeDee Lamb missing most of the game with an ankle injury, the Cowboys’ target shares were as follows:

Jake Ferguson - 31.1% (!)
George Pickens - 20.0%
Jalen Tolbert - 13.3%
Javonte Williams - 11.1%
[Nobody else over 7%]

@FantasyPtsData 25. Javonte Williams lost a fumble on the Cowboys’ first drive. As a result, we saw the most even split in this backfield of the season.

Miles Sanders stole away 9 of 19 carries, and has now received 3 of the backfield’s 4 carries inside the 10-yard line over the past two weeks.

@FantasyPtsData 26. The Bears’ rookies saw some progress this week.

Luther Burden and Colston Loveland each saw 10.7% target shares, after combining for just 8.8% of the team’s targets over the first two games.

But Odunze remains the alpha: his 27.1% TMS% this season ranks top-14.

@FantasyPtsData 27. With Jauan Jennings out, Ricky Pearsall was the 49ers’ leading receiver (117 yards)

Pearsall (26.8%) finished behind only McCaffrey (36.6%) in target share.

A career-high for Pearsall.

He and Jennings have each out-targeted the other in 2 of their last 4 games together.

@FantasyPtsData 28. James Conner suffered a very bad-looking injury early in the 2nd half.

The Cardinals’ backfield after he left:

Trey Benson: 75% carry share, the only goal-line touch, 6.7% target share

Emari Demercado: 25% carry share, 6.7% target share

@FantasyPtsData Assuming Conner is out for an extended period, I’d feel good about Benson as a weekly ~top-16 RB.

That’s especially the case after he was featured as a receiver last week:

https://x.com/RyanJ_Heath/status/1967390220128854415

@FantasyPtsData That’s all I’ve got for you!

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Enjoy the rest of SNF!