38-1/ My pathogen update for epidemiological weeks 35-38. All COVID this update.
Biobot's wastewater numbers and the CDC's NWSS seem to both indicate that the current wave has peaked. Of course, I thought that was the case 4 weeks ago, but the numbers spiked up again.
Biobot's wastewater numbers and the CDC's NWSS seem to both indicate that the current wave has peaked. Of course, I thought that was the case 4 weeks ago, but the numbers spiked up again.
38-2/ Notice that the CDC's NWSS data shows the current wave is nearly as high as our 2024-25 winter wave. I suspect that's because they're normalizing their data against the previous year's numbers. OTOH, ED visits are higher for this wave than the previous one...
38-3/ If Biobot's CpmL/PMMOV numbers are a better indicator of transmission than NWSS data, I'd have to conclude that XFG.x variant is more virulent than XEC.x in that there is a higher rate of ED visits this current wave. But this is not reflected in hospitalizations or deaths.
38-4/ You're welcome to disagree with me—but following this line of reasoning, I would conclude that, even though XFG.x is getting past our NAbs and we're getting sick, our secondary B-cell and T-cell defenses are doing an excellent job of warding off serious illness.
38-5/ BioFire's proprietary syndromic trends tool also shows the current COVID wave is past its peak. And their COVID curves resemble the CDC's NWSS curves. I'm not sure how they derive their data, though. Notice there's a *slight* uptick in RSV and flu.
38-6/ XFG (aka "Stratus") and its descendants were the primary driver of our summer wave. Early on, it looked like it would be an NB.1.8.1 ("Nimbus") wave, but XFG left it in the dust.
38-7/ And although XFG.x is the dominant variant in North and South America, Europe, and Africa...
38-8/ ...but Asia and Oceana belong to Nimbus. I don't remember a pattern like this since 2021 when the VoCs Beta, Gamma, and Lambda each dominated a region of the world.
38-9/ Re: ED visits, demographic breakdowns are no longer up on the CDC website, but @RajlabN dug into their data and gave us this. The 0-4yo age group is seeing the highest rate of ED visits this wave. Seems like Brainworm restricting COVID vaccines to very young was a bad idea.
@RajlabN 38-10/ That's it for this update. See you in four epi weeks—unless something important or interesting happens in the next few weeks. /end
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