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Sep 23 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Crypto adoption is about to SURGE:

A new Bank of America survey shows 75% of investors have ZERO exposure to crypto.

Now, US lawmakers are requesting the SEC implements President Trump's Executive Order allowing 401(K)s to BUY crypto.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Below is a letter that was sent by lawmakers to the SEC this week.

It asks the SEC to begin opening up 401(K) plans to crypto "swiftly."

This opens ~$10 TRILLION worth of capital, which is 2.5 TIMES the current market cap of crypto. Image
Image
On August 7th, Trump signed the below Executive Order.

This called for the "democratization of access to alternative assets," also known as crypto.

Prior to this, 401(K)s could only buy crypto ETFs and some stocks.

Now, Congress is calling for the SEC to implement the Order. Image
Take a look at the current TOTAL market cap of crypto.

At a record ~$4.1 trillion, this is still $6 trillion LESS than the total amount of assets in 401(K) plans.

Even if just 2% of 401(K) assets went into crypto, this would spur a major bull market.

Bitcoin could hit $200K. Image
Here's what's even more shocking:

The average professional fund manager allocation toward crypto is 0.3% of AUM.

This is referring to PROFESSIONAL investors who are generally more educated on crypto than others.

Mainstream crypto adoption is even lower right now. Image
Many institutional investors were actually SHORT crypto into this recent bull market.

Heading into July, net leverage shorts on Ethereum hit a record high, per Zerohedge.

In fact, net short exposure was ~25% ABOVE levels seen in February 2025.

That has rapidly changed. Image
Also, take a look at this recently conducted Gallup poll.

Currently, just 14% of adults in the US own Bitcoin or any other crypto currency.

The reality is less than 5% of Americans even have any material exposure to crypto at all.

This Executive Order will change that. Image
Heading into 2025, the number of US millionaire 401(K) accounts surged.

The number of 401(K) accounts with a balance of $1+ million jumped to a record 544,000 in Q3 2024.

This was up from 349,000 in 2023 and is likely nearing 600,000+ now.

These accounts may soon buy crypto. Image
On top of this, the Fed is adding fuel to the fire.

September marked the first Fed interest rate cut with Core PCE inflation at 2.9%+ in 30+ years.

The labor market is simply too weak, even as inflation has risen.

Bitcoin and gold have known this for months now. Image
As we look ahead, we believe the themes driving crypto higher will result in major macroeconomic shifts.

This is redefining the way markets are moving.

Want to see how we are capitalizing on it?

Subscribe to access our premium analysis below:

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Lastly, as the US Dollar falls, crypto and gold are gaining.

The USD is having one of its worst years in history, with Bitcoin up 30 percentage points MORE YTD.

Investors are hedging against inflation.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. Image

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Sep 22
What is happening in Argentina?

In 24 hours, Argentina's stock market COLLAPSED -10%, with the Argentine Peso now down -99% in 10 years.

Today, the Trump Administration offered a "lifeline" to Argentina, sending stocks surging +8%.

Can Argentina be saved?

(a thread) Image
Just 2 hours ago, US Treasury Secretary Bessent made this post:

He said "all options for stabilization are on the table" for Argentina.

This may include swap lines, direct currency purchases, and purchases of USD denominated government debt.

But, how did they end up here? Image
Immediately after Javier Milei became Argentina's President, inflation hit 300%+.

In late-2023, inflation in Argentina was above 25% PER MONTH.

At one point, a cup of coffee cost more by the time you finished drinking it.

It's now down to ~2% per month or ~34% YoY. Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 21
Tariff revenue is SKYROCKETING:

The US is now collecting a record $350 BILLION in annualized tariff revenue.

This marks a +355% increase compared to 2024, all as the S&P 500 has added +$16 TRILLION since April 2025.

What's coming next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Just to put this all in perspective:

The US is now collecting tariffs that are equal to 18% of household income taxes.

Prior to 2025, this percentage averaged ~4% and has not crossed above 10% in 80+ years.

Not even Trump Trade War 1.0 saw levels this high. Image
In August 2025 alone, the US collected $31 billion of tariff revenue.

This marks the single largest tariff collection in a month in US history.

Even as "trade deals" have begun, most people do not realize that tariffs are still historically high.

The data speaks for itself. Image
Read 12 tweets
Sep 20
The H1-B Visa Situation:

President Trump just raised the cost of an H-1B Visa to $100,000 PER YEAR, a +1,000% increase.

The US issues ~85,000 new H-1B Visas per year, which will now cost $8.5 BILLION/year.

What are the economic implications? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
An H-1B visa allows US employers to hire foreign workers in specialty occupations.

The initial Executive Order raised the cost of an H-1B visa to $100,000 for new AND existing holders.

The implications are MASSIVE.

For example, take a look at the top 15 H-1B visa employers. Image
Amazon has ~11,000 employees on H-1B visas.

Assuming the cost of an H-1B goes from ~$10,000 to $100,000:

This would cost Amazon alone an incremental ~$990M PER YEAR.

These top 15 firms would incur an additional $7.2 billion per year in expense under the INITIAL Order. Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 19
Rate cuts are already being felt:

US mortgage demand just surged +29.7% over last week as Fed rate cuts began.

Refinance applications jumped +58% in ONE WEEK to levels not seen since the 2020 pandemic.

Will affordability finally improve? Not yet, here's why.

(a thread) Image
Here's a graph comparing mortgage rates and demand.

US mortgage rates have declined sharply since Fed rate cut discussions began.

Meanwhile, refinance and purchase demand is up to levels not seen since April 2022.

Not even September 2024's 50 bps rate cut saw this happen. Image
Last week, US mortgage rates posted their biggest weekly drop in 12 months.

After peaking at 7.08% in early-2025, the average 30Y mortgage rate is now down to 6.35%.

But, that's exactly the problem.

Mortgage rates are down enough to spur demand, but not restore supply. Image
Read 12 tweets
Sep 18
This is unprecedented:

On August 22nd, President Trump announced that the US took a 10% stake in Intel, $INTC, worth ~$11 billion.

Today, 27 days later, NVIDIA made a massive investment in Intel, sending the US' position +$5 BILLION higher.

What just happened?

(a thread) Image
Take a look at this, directly from Intel's website:

The US government took a total investment of $11.1 billion in Intel, $8.9 billion of which was just purchased by the Trump Admin.

The average share price on this $8.9 billion acquisition was $20.47/share just last month. Image
This morning, Nvidia, $NVDA, announced a $5 BILLION investment in Intel.

This would be used to develop custom data centers and personal computing products.

Intel's stock surged to $33.40+ pre-market, which put the Trump Administration's stake over +50% higher in 27 days. Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 17
It's official:

For the first time in 2025, the Fed just cut interest rates by 25 basis points and "blamed" a weaker labor market.

Immediately after, the US Dollar fell to its weakest level since February 2022.

What's coming next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Today's rate cut made history:

This marks the first Fed interest rate cut with Core PCE inflation at 2.9%+ in 30+ years.

The decision was CLEARLY driven by the labor market portion of the Fed's "dual mandate."

The labor market is simply too weak, even as inflation has risen. Image
Today's meeting was also important as it came with the update Fed "dot-plot."

This shows where Fed officials see interest rates moving, as shown below per ZeroHedge.

The median projection showed an additional 50 basis points of interest rate cuts before the end of 2025. Image
Read 13 tweets

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