auonsson Profile picture
Sep 23, 2025 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
@pmolpmol lists three ships interesting as suspected drone carriers in last night attack on Copenhagen Airport.

In this thread, I will argue that Russian ship ASTROL 1 is an excellent fit.

Right time, right type, erratic track just before attack, highly suspicious background. Image
Article that led me down this rabbit hole, by @pmolpmol nyheder.tv2.dk/live/krimi/202…
ASTROL 1 is a largely flat cargo ship with hatches that likely would serve well as drone pads.

She is a similar model to SCANLARK, recently apprehended by German authorities on drone suspicions and to PORT OLYA 4, drone import ship on Iran trade. Sunk by Ukraine. Image
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At time of drone attack start ASTROL 1 was just 35-40 km to the southeast of Copenhagen airport, having passed the hours before.

The night before she spent zig-zaging Kattegat, as if to arrive timely to destination? Image
Sunk ship PORT OLYA did these tracks last year, highly likely importing drones or other armaments from Iran to Russia in Caspian Sea.

ASTROL 1 did at least three similar trips last 12 months, last in Feb 2025. Image
Image
Very circumstantial, but in this photo ASTROL 1 is maneuvering right in front of known gun runner SPARTA IV. Photo taken in 2021. Kaliningrad? St Petersburg? Image
The case presented here is of course highly circumstantial.

ASTROL 1 is steaming south of Gotland. 4 hours ago she left normal traffic patterns and made a turn for Gotland.

I'll leave for the marine commands to decide if she is possible to apprehend and worthy of it. Image
Oh, almost forgot. With AIS we always run the risk of looking at a falsified track. A ship similar in shape to ASTROL 1 passes a webcam with a good match to the AIS-track, yesterday morning, north of Helsingør. This gives more credibility to the AIS-track being true. Image
Unless ASTROL 1 turns she will be on Swedish waters in 90 minutes. Ripe for picking.

Closest openly advertized NATO units is a Latvian catamaran patrol a few hours to NWW. There are almost certainly unadvertized units in the general area as well. Image
ASTROL 1 has turned, 5 km before entering Sweden and is now moving along the border. Again, outside of the most common routes.

A proper Tonkin-distance. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_T…Image
Image
There are two US Navy P8 combined intelligence and anti-ship/submarine aircraft operating south of Gotland, northwest of Kaliningrad.

Seeing one of those is rather common, two not so much.

Likely not related, maybe available. Image
German journalist @winkelsdorf makes a case for Russian-crewed, Russia-connected, Norwegian-flagged OSLO CARRIER 3

@winkelsdorf Another vote for OSLO CARRIER 3

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More from @auonsson

Jan 30
4 days ago Baltic States + UK wrote a letter interpreted as "Baltic Sea closing for shadow fleet".

No sanctioned tanker has arrived since (unusual*) but coming 24-36h the claim will get its first test with 5 sanctioned tankers inbound. Image
* It is unusual to not see daily sanctioned tanker arrive to Baltic Sea, usually a few each day.

But, the last 4 days lull ismight be explained by weather: Atlantic storms, low temperature and an increasingly frozen Gulf of Finland.
The ice is growing thicc around Russia's Baltic oil terminals.

Ice data outlets list a bunch of ice-breakers in service, but other sources have stated Russia lack capacity to keep the ice-sensitive rust-bucket tankers in play. Image
Read 10 tweets
Jan 17
Underappreciated fact:

The paths and positions of the cable damages around New Years 2026 were to most of Estonia's internet backbone routes.

Had it fully succeeded/happened by accident (lol) Estonia would have been left with a crippled connectivity. Image
Image
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Read 5 tweets
Dec 31, 2025
I just deleted a post where I had misread a press release.

5 cables have been damaged, but 3 of those from storm conditions. Image
I might not have been that wrong.

There is a SE-EE incident and a FI-EE incident.

The SE-FI is described as two breaks on the same cable last I read.

As per usual the details, allusions and contexts are vague in news and statements.
Updated map of cable breaks between Sweden and Estonia, based on press release from Estonian ministry for digital affairs.

The details are murky and partly incoherent and I have asked Swedish authorities for clarification.

Whats clear: there are several breaks on one cable. Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 20, 2025
Russian logistics ship ADLER is at anchor IN Sweden.

Possibly broken down. Usually runs heavy weapons to Russian bases in Africa / Middle East.

Was inspected by military aircraft 2h ago. Swedish Coast Guard just arrived to area.

Tnx @butafly over at the better site. Image
@butafly Coast Guard patrol is about to dock in Höganäs, port a few kms south.

Here they will likely pick up more staff for whatever they plan.

Guess: Nationella Insatsstyrkan or something similar. NI are police, but carry proper guns. Or, a cadre of really nitpicky bureaucrats =) Image
@butafly ADLER is very much IN Sweden, only 2 nautical miles from the coast.

Legally Sweden have much more legroom here then if she was outside our territory.

Let's see if we use it. Onboard one would likely find weapons or supplies headed for Libya/Syria or similar Russian base.
Read 18 tweets
Sep 22, 2025
Copenhagen Airport is closed for operations because of drones in the air.

Northern Europes most busy airport. Image
Plane diverting last minute. Image
Copenhagen Police in a ”massive operation on scene” (commanding police officer to news)

dr.dk/nyheder/indlan…
Read 21 tweets
Sep 13, 2025
A Russian brand new fishing boat is almost blocking Öresund strait.

They seemingly lost propulsion 4 hours ago, drifted north towards the very narrow channels (~300m) but seem to have anchored.

Swedish coast guard and police have been at scene.

AIS-caveats apply.
A Russian brand new fishing boat is almost blocking Öresund strait.

They seemingly lost propulsion 4 hours ago, drifted north towards the very narrow channels (~300m) but seem to have anchored.

Swedish coast guard and police have been at scene.

AIS-caveats apply. Zoom in.
Fishing boat in question is built this year 2025. Left St Petersburg about 3 days ago.

MECHANIC STEPANOV IMO: 9916252
Read 23 tweets

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