auonsson Profile picture
Sep 23, 2025 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
@pmolpmol lists three ships interesting as suspected drone carriers in last night attack on Copenhagen Airport.

In this thread, I will argue that Russian ship ASTROL 1 is an excellent fit.

Right time, right type, erratic track just before attack, highly suspicious background. Image
Article that led me down this rabbit hole, by @pmolpmol nyheder.tv2.dk/live/krimi/202…
ASTROL 1 is a largely flat cargo ship with hatches that likely would serve well as drone pads.

She is a similar model to SCANLARK, recently apprehended by German authorities on drone suspicions and to PORT OLYA 4, drone import ship on Iran trade. Sunk by Ukraine. Image
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At time of drone attack start ASTROL 1 was just 35-40 km to the southeast of Copenhagen airport, having passed the hours before.

The night before she spent zig-zaging Kattegat, as if to arrive timely to destination? Image
Sunk ship PORT OLYA did these tracks last year, highly likely importing drones or other armaments from Iran to Russia in Caspian Sea.

ASTROL 1 did at least three similar trips last 12 months, last in Feb 2025. Image
Image
Very circumstantial, but in this photo ASTROL 1 is maneuvering right in front of known gun runner SPARTA IV. Photo taken in 2021. Kaliningrad? St Petersburg? Image
The case presented here is of course highly circumstantial.

ASTROL 1 is steaming south of Gotland. 4 hours ago she left normal traffic patterns and made a turn for Gotland.

I'll leave for the marine commands to decide if she is possible to apprehend and worthy of it. Image
Oh, almost forgot. With AIS we always run the risk of looking at a falsified track. A ship similar in shape to ASTROL 1 passes a webcam with a good match to the AIS-track, yesterday morning, north of Helsingør. This gives more credibility to the AIS-track being true. Image
Unless ASTROL 1 turns she will be on Swedish waters in 90 minutes. Ripe for picking.

Closest openly advertized NATO units is a Latvian catamaran patrol a few hours to NWW. There are almost certainly unadvertized units in the general area as well. Image
ASTROL 1 has turned, 5 km before entering Sweden and is now moving along the border. Again, outside of the most common routes.

A proper Tonkin-distance. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_T…Image
Image
There are two US Navy P8 combined intelligence and anti-ship/submarine aircraft operating south of Gotland, northwest of Kaliningrad.

Seeing one of those is rather common, two not so much.

Likely not related, maybe available. Image
German journalist @winkelsdorf makes a case for Russian-crewed, Russia-connected, Norwegian-flagged OSLO CARRIER 3

@winkelsdorf Another vote for OSLO CARRIER 3

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More from @auonsson

Jun 30
Today Russian Navy corvette Soobrazitelny 531 intervened to make German media, politicians and possibly coast guard stay away from a shadow tanker in waters between Denmark and Germany. Image
Details from Swedish politician: a Greenpeace protest was under way, Russian corvette closed in at high speed, initially not replying to radio from German Coast Guard. German CG then escorted activists/politicians/media away.

Ie, Russia interrupted western democratic activities.
Full video in this article aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/bOqx…
Read 5 tweets
Jun 13
Russia is jamming Baltic Sea - 6th proof, 4th method.

Pskov, Kaliningrad and Kingisepp stand out as highly likely spots for the jammers, found by analyzing NISAR satellite imagery.

Method is copied from work by @SeanGorman and verified by identifying a known jammer, +/- 2.5km🧵 Image
Method is best described by @SeanGorman in this article, my inspiration.

Short version, jammers produce interference seen by the radar, bearings are taken and combining several such it is possible to compute a center position and its uncertainty.
gpsworld.com/converging-on-…
Uncluttered view of my detection. NB, there are only a few passes per jammer. Some likely false positive detections and jammers around Ukraine.

The files are 14GB each and in beta, coverage is limited and unfortunately there are no perpendiculars passes (much better detection). Image
Read 10 tweets
May 11
One of the Russian GPS spoofers around St Petersburg sports what looks like an aim function.

There is a realistic possibility this has been used to drive Ukrainian attack drones into NATO territory.

So far, I only have two anecdotes to show for it, data collection ongoing.

🧵 Image
Last months have seen some drones stray into eg Finland, Estonia and latest Latvia.

While it is an obvious expected function of a military spoofer to send a drone astray, to my knowledge it has not been shown to happen.

I am not showing that, yet. But there are circumstances.
Read 7 tweets
May 9
The hypothesis that last summers telecom sabotage campaign in south Sweden was in fact aimed at dual use military installations is strengthened.

Masts facing southeastern Baltic and Kaliningrad were hit.

Finland is now implementing the tech. It is not public whether SE uses it. Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 17
Baltic Sea is about to welcome false flagged tanker GRIF 9332028 heading for Russia

She is 19 years old and was last inspected by Russia in 2024 with deficiencies in life boats, doors and "dangerous areas"

Sanctioned by EU, UK and Switzerland. Passed inside DK without a hiccup Image
GRIF claims to be flagged in Madagascar. Madagascar on the other hand denies having a international ship registry =)

splash247.com/madagascar-exp…
Read 4 tweets
Mar 14
NATO has started broadcasting a regular request for the reporting of suspicious observations from mariners in Baltic Sea.

Not sure when it started, but a while ago. Thanks anon follower for the recording! =)
Full text:

... in the Baltic Sea region in coordination with NATO Baltic nations to safeguard safety and security, freedom of navigation and the security of undersea infrastructure.....1/2
To assist in this maritime security effort please report immediately any observations of unusual maritime activity or behavior over VHF channel 16. This is Lyngby Radio monitoring VHF chan.....2/2
Read 4 tweets

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