1/ Russia has effectively lost Transnistria following Moldova's recent parliamentary elections, according to Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin. After the defeat of pro-Russian parties, he anticipates that the region will be seized jointly by Moldova and Ukraine. ⬇️
https://x.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1972549090153308407
2/ Girkin writes from prison: "The situation in Transnistria has remained tense for three and a half years—ever since our troops failed to break through to Odesa, failed to take Mykolaiv, and especially since our fleet was pushed back to the eastern coast of the Black Sea and… 
3/ …trapped in its ports. Since then, the Russian Federation has lost the ability to provide Transnistria with real military assistance without the use of nuclear forces.
4/ "This means we have no way to protect our garrison there (peacekeeping forces, several hundred troops), the large number of Russian citizens there (almost the entire population of Transnistria holds Russian citizenship), our military pensioners, or our military depot…
5/ …(filled with obsolete ammunition for Soviet artillery systems, but quite useful in modern warfare).
6/ "And most importantly, we are unable to protect several vital rail and road crossings across the Dniester, which, in the event of a large-scale Western intervention in Ukraine, are simply obliged to become logistical hubs for the transfer of troops, cargo, and equipment from…
7/ …Romania to Ukrainian territory.
Accordingly, it is precisely this territorial location of Transnistria that necessitates its elimination for the enemy during the intervention [i.e. the war in Ukraine].
Accordingly, it is precisely this territorial location of Transnistria that necessitates its elimination for the enemy during the intervention [i.e. the war in Ukraine].
8/ "It significantly shortens the routes for transporting troops, equipment, and equipment, and also simplifies and increases their number.
9/ "Therefore, it can be assumed that the enemy could, in the near future, literally within a few weeks, launch an operation to seize Transnistria.
10/ "Moreover, unfortunately, given that we are unable to assist them, this operation will be completed very quickly—in a few days at most, and possibly within one or two days—if anyone there offers resistance at all, which, from a military standpoint, is completely pointless.
11/ "The maximum depth of Transnistria is just over 20 kilometers at its widest point. The territory is hostile on all sides: Moldova on one side, Ukraine on the other. The operation will most likely be carried out on both sides.
12/ "And resistance under these conditions is only possible in Tiraspol and Bender, which will have no effect. This is also considering that any troop or reinforcement transfers from Russia are physically impossible. There are two options:
13/ "– either the West will postpone the situation in Transnistria for the future, since it doesn't interfere with them (but this option only applies if they expect to continue the war in Ukraine much as it is now);
14/ "– or, if they are in a hurry to introduce their troops, they will liquidate Transnistria in the near future.
Unfortunately, the initiative here is entirely theirs; nothing depends on us.
Unfortunately, the initiative here is entirely theirs; nothing depends on us.
15/ "I very much doubt that the Russian Federation will engage in a full-scale war with NATO over Transnistria. Because, frankly, we are completely unprepared for such a war: we are not mobilised, we are not prepared for anything.
16/ "Holidays and various sporting events continue nonstop instead of preparing for war. In Moscow, for the fourth time this year, as usual, they are re-laying the paving stones.
17/ "Meanwhile, refugees from the Kursk and Belgorod regions are streaming from the cities along the border deep into our territory, and there is destruction from constant air strikes. In other words, we have not prepared for war and are not ready.
18/ "Therefore, I believe that, unfortunately, Transnistria will be left to its own devices, and this island of the Russian world, this loyal outpost of Moscow, which has repeatedly attempted over the past thirty years to reunite with Russia officially, if not as a territory,…
19/ …then at least by creating an enclave similar to Kaliningrad, will, unfortunately, most likely be crushed by the enemy. This will send a serious signal to all our enemies, both outside the former Soviet Union and within the CIS.
20/ "We await the decision that will be made. The decision will be made by the enemy, and we, unfortunately, will react passively."
Source:
t.me/i_strelkov_202…
Source:
t.me/i_strelkov_202…
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