Russia is exploiting economic struggles in developing nations, luring thousands of Africans with promises of escaping poverty - only for many to end up KIA or missing. Key findings from Frontelligence Insight’s analysis of unique mercenary records in Africa and the Middle East:
2/ According to available data, Egypt is the leading contributor, with 291 documented cases. While the full roster of mercenaries remains incomplete, Egyptians make up nearly 25% of the more than 1200 records we have manually reviewed.
3/ We requested materials from the Ukrainian project @hochuzhit_com, which deals with POWs from all countries fighting for Russia, to see whether they have matching documents. Their records confirmed several individuals have been listed in Russia as missing in action:
4/ According to the provided MIA card, Egyptian citizen Al-Hudi Amr Ashraf Abdelbari, born July 8, 1989, went missing near Verkhnokamianka during an assault against Ukrainian forces. According to the report, he disappeared following a UAV-dropped munition hit on July 11, 2024
5/ While Egyptian cases dominate, they are not the only ones. Cameroon and Ghana follow with 199 and 180 documented cases, respectively. The data also confirm earlier reports of Yemeni participation, with at least 49 citizens. Surprisingly, Iraqis outnumber Iranians: 85 to 6
6/ Respectively to its geographic and population size, The Gambia stands out - 42 confirmed records for a country of 2.7 million population. In comparison, while Egypt is the biggest total number provider, its population is over 115 millions
7/ Surprisingly, we found very few records from the Central African Republic, despite Russia’s long-standing presence and influence there. In Mali, where the African Corps is also active, only 38 mercenaries were documented to join Russia's army - just two fewer than in Algeria
8/ Overall, recruitment in Africa and Middle East is accelerating rapidly. Out of all records, 1,045 included a contract signing date, allowing us to track the trend: in 2023, there were 146 contracts; in 2024, 248; and in just the first six months of 2025 we identified 651 cases
9/ According to information provided by the @hochuzhit_com project, more than 100 POWs from 34 countries, excluding Russia, are currently held in Ukrainian custody. It also appears that not all countries are eager to secure the return of their citizens.
10/ Based on another dataset of 3081 mercenary records from around the world, the vast majority of recruits are assigned to infantry, assault, or other combat roles. This indicates that, despite Russian promises of non-combat positions, such assurances are unlikely to be honored
11/ Thank you for reading. In the coming weeks, we will release more materials on mercenaries from different continents, offering further details on mercenaries fighting for Russia. If you find our work useful, you can support us via the BuyMeACoffee:
12/ We would also like to thank the @hochuzhit_com project for providing data and individual case details, which made our investigation possible in the first place
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The catastrophic situation of Russian forces trapped in Kupyansk, who continue to lose ground, together with a second consecutive year of failure to fully seize Pokrovsk, represents one of the more optimistic scenarios for 2025.
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2/ As war fatigue increasingly affects Russia, the prospect of enforcing a rapid, unfavorable capitulation of Ukraine through Washington, DC now appears even more remote, not not entirely excluded
3/ While Russia has used the negotiation process primarily to delay new sanctions and slow support for Kyiv, its economic situation continues to deteriorate, and tactical gains have failed to translate into strategic breakthroughs.
Information about a new modification of Russia’s Geran-2 drone has been published by Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, including a detailed technical breakdown. According to the analysis, the Geran drone has been fitted with an R-60 air-to-air missile mounted on its fuselage:
2/ The missile, fitted with an APU-60-1MD (P-62-1MD) aircraft launcher, is mounted on a special bracket located on the upper front section of the Geran’s fuselage.
3/ The most likely employment of rocket involves transmitting images from the drone’s cameras to an operator via the modem. If a Ukrainian aircraft or helicopter enters the engagement zone, the operator sends a launch command to the missile’s control unit.
Analysis: New Data Suggests Russia Is Sustaining Mi-8 Output Despite Wartime Losses
According to non-public Russian procurement documents obtained and analyzed by the Frontelligence Insight team, current Mi-8 production appears sufficient to offset wartime losses. 🧵Thread:
2/ Since the Soviet era, more than 12,000 Mi-8 helicopters of all types have been produced. It’s a versatile military transport platform that can move troops, cargo, serve as a flying hospital or EW asset, and conduct attack missions with unguided rockets and 100–500 kg bombs.
3/ Correspondence between Aviafarm and ZOMZ the Defense Ministry and ZOMZ show a request for 40 IS-264A thermometers: 20 for Kazan and 20 for Ulan-Ude, where Mi-8s are produced.
Most know Kirill Dmitriev as the Russian president’s envoy. But to more than 200 investors in Ukraine, he is known for taking part in a Kyiv real estate project that ended in a fraud and criminal case. Using articles from 2011, I was able to find more details. 🧵Thread:
2/ The story begins in 2000s, when N. Lahuna and A. Dmitriev (Kirill Dmitriev’s father) planned the elite suburban “Olympic Park.” Construction was to be carried out by Traverz-Bud, a subsidiary of "Evropa", in which, according to "Argument," Kirill Dmitriev held a majority stake
3/ Based on court documents cited in the media, in 2011 (links at the end), a prosecutor’s audit found that construction of the properties, which under agreements with the developers of the “Olympic Park” was due to be completed by the end of 2008, has not been carried out
The Financial Times, a media outlet I respect and one of the few that consistently produces exceptional reporting on Ukraine, has released a new editorial opinion. Many, including myself, agree that changes are needed. However, I believe the timing is extremely problematic:
2/ The situation on the frontlines is currently very difficult. At the same time, Kyiv is facing external pressure from Washington, where many are echoing Kremlin-style “capitulation” narratives. In moments like these, the President must stand on solid ground.
3/ This is not about Zelensky personally - it is about the institution of the Presidency. Completely overhauling the government and appointing untested figures in the name of transparency could create a situation where we might end up with no state and government at all
Financial Times reports that, under the draft plan, Ukraine would be required to cede full control of the Donbas region and halve the size of its armed forces. The plan would also require Ukraine to give up certain types of weaponry:
2/ The plan would also require Ukraine to recognize Russian as an official state language and grant official status to the local branch of the Russian Orthodox Church, provisions that echo long-standing Kremlin political objectives.
3/ Officials in Kyiv briefed on the plan said it closely aligns with the Kremlin’s maximalist demands and would be a non-starter for Ukraine without significant changes, according to @ChristopherJM with @FT