Russia is exploiting economic struggles in developing nations, luring thousands of Africans with promises of escaping poverty - only for many to end up KIA or missing. Key findings from Frontelligence Insight’s analysis of unique mercenary records in Africa and the Middle East:
2/ According to available data, Egypt is the leading contributor, with 291 documented cases. While the full roster of mercenaries remains incomplete, Egyptians make up nearly 25% of the more than 1200 records we have manually reviewed.
3/ We requested materials from the Ukrainian project @hochuzhit_com, which deals with POWs from all countries fighting for Russia, to see whether they have matching documents. Their records confirmed several individuals have been listed in Russia as missing in action:
4/ According to the provided MIA card, Egyptian citizen Al-Hudi Amr Ashraf Abdelbari, born July 8, 1989, went missing near Verkhnokamianka during an assault against Ukrainian forces. According to the report, he disappeared following a UAV-dropped munition hit on July 11, 2024
5/ While Egyptian cases dominate, they are not the only ones. Cameroon and Ghana follow with 199 and 180 documented cases, respectively. The data also confirm earlier reports of Yemeni participation, with at least 49 citizens. Surprisingly, Iraqis outnumber Iranians: 85 to 6
6/ Respectively to its geographic and population size, The Gambia stands out - 42 confirmed records for a country of 2.7 million population. In comparison, while Egypt is the biggest total number provider, its population is over 115 millions
7/ Surprisingly, we found very few records from the Central African Republic, despite Russia’s long-standing presence and influence there. In Mali, where the African Corps is also active, only 38 mercenaries were documented to join Russia's army - just two fewer than in Algeria
8/ Overall, recruitment in Africa and Middle East is accelerating rapidly. Out of all records, 1,045 included a contract signing date, allowing us to track the trend: in 2023, there were 146 contracts; in 2024, 248; and in just the first six months of 2025 we identified 651 cases
9/ According to information provided by the @hochuzhit_com project, more than 100 POWs from 34 countries, excluding Russia, are currently held in Ukrainian custody. It also appears that not all countries are eager to secure the return of their citizens.
10/ Based on another dataset of 3081 mercenary records from around the world, the vast majority of recruits are assigned to infantry, assault, or other combat roles. This indicates that, despite Russian promises of non-combat positions, such assurances are unlikely to be honored
11/ Thank you for reading. In the coming weeks, we will release more materials on mercenaries from different continents, offering further details on mercenaries fighting for Russia. If you find our work useful, you can support us via the BuyMeACoffee:
12/ We would also like to thank the @hochuzhit_com project for providing data and individual case details, which made our investigation possible in the first place
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Since January, 21 of Russia’s 38 major refineries, facilities that process crude into fuels such as gasoline and diesel, have been hit, a new BBC Verify investigation found. The tally of successful attacks is already 48% higher than the total for all of 2024. 🧵Thread:
2/ BBC analysis shows reported attacks hit a record in August, when Ukrainian drones targeted 14 refineries, followed by eight more in September. Some of the strikes reached facilities deep inside Russia.
3/ In late September, the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan was struck twice. Satellite images showed smoke rising from the facility, which sits more than 1,100 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Russia’s military rearmament, especially weapon production numbers, reveals much about its future plans. These numbers are usually hidden in classified documents, a problem Frontelligence Insight, with help from insiders, has solved. For the first time, we can share some of them:
2/ Before the release of the documents, spoilers of which an attentive eye may already have found in the image, we ask our followers to click the notify button in the profile so you don’t miss it. Many have reported that after updates, they don't see posts from those they follow
3/ While we prepare our X release, we invite everyone to read our latest research, based on tens of thousands of personal records of Russian deserters, published yesterday, but something you might have completely missed with the new “better” algorithms.
It’ll be like the Chechen war - said one mobilized soldier. Even if it ends, our leader will thank and leave. A new one will say: I never promised you anything. Back home they’ll say: We never sent you.
One of many remarks gathered by Verstka from mobilized Russians. 🧵Thread:
2/ Russian media outlet Verstka has interviewed dozens of mobilized. Three years in, most express regret and little desire to continue. “There aren’t many patriots here. Almost everyone just wants to go home,” said another mobilized
3/ Here are some more statements from mobilized:
- I wish I could go back three years and tear up that draft notice. I’d rather take a suspended sentence than have spent all this time fighting and suffering. Every day out here has felt like a waste of my life
It’ll be like the Chechen war - said one mobilized soldier. Even if it ends, our leader will thank and leave. A new one will say: I never promised you anything. Back home they’ll say: We never sent you.
One of many remarks gathered by Verstka from mobilized Russians. 🧵Thread:
2/ Russian media outlet Verstka has interviewed dozens of mobilized. Three years in, most express regret and little desire to continue. “There aren’t many patriots here. Almost everyone just wants to go home,” said another mobilized
3/ Here are some more statements from mobilized:
- I wish I could go back three years and tear up that draft notice. I’d rather take a suspended sentence than have spent all this time fighting and suffering. Every day out here has felt like a waste of my life
Russia’s government plans to raise the value-added tax from 20% to 22%, breaking Putin’s pledge not to increase taxes before 2030. The budget deficit has already widened to ₽4.2 trillion ($50 billion), or 1.9% of GDP, as revenues decline with falling oil prices, reports the FT:
2/ This is the second direct tax increase since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
For the full year, the finance ministry expects the deficit to reach ₽5.7 trillion, or 2.6% of GDP, Interfax reported, citing a draft budget law not yet published in full.
3/ Oil and gas sales, which once made up nearly half of Russia’s budget, are expected to account for no more than 22% of revenue next year, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. He said last week that Russia aims to lower the break-even oil price for its budget.
Ukraine successfully hit two refineries with drone strikes early on September 20. Geolocated videos show both the Novokuybyshevsk and Saratov refineries damaged and on fire. Ukraine has successfully targeted these facilities earlier this year. 🧵Thread:
2/ According to Rosneft, the Saratov Refinery has a designed capacity of 7.0 million tons of oil per year. It processes Urals crude, crude from the Saratov field via pipeline, as well as crude from the Orenburg fields by rail. It produces gasoline, vacuum gas oil, and bitumen
3/ Ukraine has struck Saratov Refinery multiple times in the past - once in August and twice in September (including today’s strike). The August strike halted oil intake, and the September 14 strike led to operational disruptions, though the full scale of impact remains unclear.