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Stephen Miran Profile picture
@SteveMiran
Oct 2 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Interesting new study on how large-scale immigration causes increases in rents, drawn from administrative data in Denmark. I am hopeful that we see some new studies on American outcomes based on the recent experience. Image
rfberlin.com/network-paper/…
This matters to me because I view it as having driven a meaningful portion of inflation that we experienced in recent years, and as having now gone into reverse. It matters for monetary policy, as I emphasized in my recent speech.

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More from @SteveMiran

Stephen Miran Profile picture
Nov 13, 2024
A USER'S GUIDE TO RESTRUCTURING THE GLOBAL TRADING SYSTEM

As markets look forward to a second Trump Admin, there are lots of bad predictions that tariffs will cause horrible inflation, or the President can't affect the dollar. Both are false. /1 hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/h…
There's a variety of tools the Trump Admin can use to procure fairer and more reciprocal international trade, through tariffs or currency policy. Each tool has different potential side effects, but there are steps the Admin can take to mitigate them. /2
Disclaimer: As always, these views are mine alone, and I certainly don’t speak for any of my colleagues, and I’m not affiliated with the Trump transition effort. This is my interpretation of what causes our persistent imbalances, and describing various tools I think could help./3
Read 35 tweets
Stephen Miran Profile picture
Aug 21, 2024
🧵
Since it was released, the paper on ATI that I wrote with @nouriel has provoked heated discussion, as well as denials from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Some criticisms of the paper are already addressed within (I know, it’s long, easy to miss stuff), others are new. /1
There are two main criticisms I’ve seen of the paper. 1) Assertions that Treasury’s behavior is normal; 2) Questions regarding effect size and calculations. /2
Treasury’s response is that orthodox policy is to fund a spike in borrowing needs with bills. We agree, and give Treasury the benefit of the doubt that it refiling the government’s coffers after the debt limit suspension last spring was a genuine spike in funding needs. /3
Read 46 tweets
Stephen Miran Profile picture
Aug 11, 2024
Sunday morning pre-coffee thinking aloud

Every expansion has growth scares. Recession callers will be right eventually. Will this be the time? I'm not seeing it yet. And monetary policy doves seem too cavalier about the risks of inflation being permanently engrained higher.
Core PCE was 3.3% in the first half of the year. I get it, they expect it to come down - but what if they're wrong? They have been quite wrong about inflation for a while. If the Fed cuts, unemployment stabilizes around 4% and inflation around 2.5%-3%, that's not a good outcome.
Recall that to get rising unemployment, you just need reduced hiring, you don't actually need substantial layoffs. Still, most of the rise in UE thus far is from new labor supply not being met by new hiring, NOT from steady state separations not then hired
Read 14 tweets
Stephen Miran Profile picture
Jul 23, 2024
🚨🚨 New from me, joint with @Nouriel 🚨🚨
ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War over Monetary Policy
How Treasury's issuance policies have stimulated markets and the economy and blocked the Fed's efforts to restrain growth and inflation
/1 tinyurl.com/ykmpps49

Image
Image
Summary: changes to Treasury's issuance policies have provided similar economic stimulus as a 1% cut in the Fed Funds rate, usurping core functions of monetary policy and blocking the Fed's efforts to restrain inflation and growth.
/2
One criticism of QE was that it eroded the barrier between monetary and fiscal policy. It turns out that if the Fed can cross this barrier, Treasury can as well. Activist Treasury Issuance (ATI) works through similar channels as Fed QE.
/3
Read 38 tweets
Stephen Miran Profile picture
Mar 21, 2024
Delighted to present a bold new proposal for governance reform of the Federal Reserve system in a new @ManhattanInst report joint with @DanielScottKatz

The Fed has become increasingly political in its actions, and yet is beyond political accountability
manhattan.institute/article/reform…
The overriding problem is that political independence yields better monetary policy (in theory), but erodes democratic accountability. How do we provide more democratic legitimacy without compromising the quality of monetary policy?
Worse, the Fed has increasingly been overtly political in its actions, while hiding behind independence as a shield for taking political and fiscal decisions without democratic underpinning. For instance:
Read 19 tweets
Stephen Miran Profile picture
Jan 15, 2024
Some thoughts on the CPI-PCE wedge and whether the Fed can declare "mission accomplished" and cut to neutral

Core PCE has been running at the Fed's professed target of 2% for 6 months (maybe 8, we'll see), but core CPI has been running at 3% and higher lately Image
@mtkonczal has given a beautiful decomposition, but I have a somewhat different interpretation

The most important thing to me is the difference in scope--PCE includes expenditures made on behalf of consumers, CPI counts expenditures made by consumers

That means that stuff like Medicare payments to hospitals shows up in PCE, but not in CPI. Saying "housing is upweighted in CPI" is in large part a reflection of these huge healthcare expenditures added into PCE.
Read 21 tweets

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