Clément Molin Profile picture
Oct 6 25 tweets 8 min read Read on X
*123 000 russian 🇷🇺 soldiers got killed in 2025 in Ukraine 🇺🇦, more than the french 🇫🇷 ground forces.

In total, 281 550 russian soldiers were lost in 2025 as per leaked report. It includes 123 000 killed and missing and 158 529 wounded.

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These leaked documents were initially shared by this account @hochuzhit_com which provided these two pictures.

*I don't know about the source which seems controversial but the data seems veracious since it is close to other data collected by Mediazona, the Ukrainian General Staff and independent analysts.

There is high possibility this can be a propaganda operation, but the data can still be used.Image
Image
The document is giving few interesting insights on the state of russian forces. With 83 000 killed, it's close to the Mediazona count (54 000 in August with verified data).

It is also giving data on particular units and different sectors.
Here is a graph with the location of russian losses in different sectors. I added both killed and missing because the term missing is often used to hide losses and most of the time, soldiers are dead (or captured, but it cannot be possible for Russia since it advances). Image
On a map, here is each sector with different losses. I gathered also Wounded in Action (WIA) and Prisonner of War (POW) because they can eventually be recovered.

On top, I put the total number for each direction. Image
The data is simply catastrophic for Russia. In only 9 months, it lost 53 572 soldiers in Kursk and Sumy including 19 567 killed, mainly not affiliated to any unit.

Most of those were lost during the Kursk counter-offensive and Sumy incursion. Image
In Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts, we have 21 698 killed russian soldiers, with a total number of 47 410 losses. Image
The data is also interesting because it gives informations for every unit. For example, the 1st tank army is pushing for Borova and Kupiansk, it took more than 21 000 losses for minimal gains.

The 20th and 25th armies are pushing for Lyman, they also took high losses. Image
For Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, but also Siversk and Chasiv Yar, Russia suffered catastrophic losses, nearly 100 000 thousands, including 43 263 killed.

Half of the dead are in this direction ! Image
We have crazy numbers for some units in the central part of Donbas.

The 2nd army (Pokrovsk) lost 31 575 soldiers including 15 310 killed, the 41st (South Pokrovsk) lost 20 879 soldiers including 7 443 dead and the 51st lost 27 340 soldiers including 13 008 killed... Image
More interesting is the specific data for the 90th Tank Division, with 7.2k losses including 3.5k killed, while it only advanced few kilometers on the Novopavlivka direction. Image
On the East direction (Pokrovsk-Hulialpole direction), losses are also very high for the russians. In total, 37 985 losses including 15 957 killed and missed. Image
Here again, we have detailed statistics. As @moklasen rightly stated in one of his posts today, "the 29th Army only has one brigade: the 36th MRB took 7.7k casualties since january".

The 5th army also took around 12 000 losses including 7 400 dead ! Image
In the south (Zaporijia), we have 32 740 russian losses, including 15 000 dead. The third army took half of the losses. Image
Finally for the Dnipro direction (Kherson and along the Dnipro river), we have 13 243 losses including 5 449 losses, mainly in the 58th army. Image
Now that we saw detailed statistics from each direction, let's see a general graphic of the main units with losses, PMC is for Kursk and sometimes units can be seen two times because their subordinated (brigades, divisions) are fighting in 2 different directions. Image
Now, some questions on this data :

Can it be true ? Yes or No. The ukrainians are giving official data which counts KIA, MIA, WIA and POW close to that.

The recognized ukrainian analyst @Tatarigami_UA said between 8 400–10 500 KIA are killed every month.
These are also the estimations of Mediazona for killed soldiers. With 9 640 killed per month, the data seems close to what is known. With the MIA, it would be 13 400 per month.

The document does not seem official, it could also be a made up. Still, it is interesting to analyse. Image
Another analyst, @AndrewPerpetua is counting all the russian soldiers killed by drone strikes (with the video proves). He says he is counting 4 000 to 4 500 a month and around 120 a day. Alone, he would have between 1/2 to 1/3 of all losses.
Why is the death tole so high ?

On this video alone (GRAPHIC ⚠️), we can see multiple bodies of russian soldiers near Pokrovsk. Due tot the drone threat, they have to walk or use motorcycles. On this case, crossing fortifications concentrate ukrainian fire.
This is the same in most of the Donbass. Ukrainian drone operators are hiding in the cities and launch hundreds of drones daily, whith part of them hitting russian soldiers on foot.

We have multiple videos of all those dead soldiers.
One of the main point of russian tactics is to assault with small teams. They do not recover their dead or their wounded.

If this tactic has proven right to advance, the data gathered today shows that it cost around 120 000 soldiers (KIA, MIA, WIA...) to reach Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka.
Of course, some will ask "What about Ukraine ?"

I do not have that precise data. Ualosses states that Ukraine lost 160 000 soldiers, including 77 000 missing, probably dead or captured since the begining of the war.
Ukraine is recovering its wounded soldiers, but not really its dead because they are mostly killed in frontline positions taken by the russians. The bodies are excghanged later, which explains the strong difference between both. Around 10 000 this year. Image
Thanks for following this thread. I will probably add here other analyses of other OSINT accounts on this data.

The main subject is russian slosses so don't start asking me 200 questions about Ukraine because I don't know.

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More from @clement_molin

Nov 22
Cette vidéo des forces ukrainiennes 🇺🇦 a bientôt 4 ans, plus jamais nous ne verrons ce type d'image.

Pourtant, bon nombre d'armée occidentales fonctionnent encore comme si la guerre en Ukraine n'avait pas lieu.

Il est URGENT de se mettre à jour :

🧵THREAD🧵1/22 ⬇️
Les armées ukrainiennes et russes ont un avantage technologique massif sur les armées occidentales. Les leçons apprises d'Ukraine seront importantes à prendre en compte ailleurs.

Sommaire :
-drones
-pertes
-blindés
-tranchées
-déploiement de troupes
1- Le drone de reconnaissance

L'utilité principale du drone étant la reconnaissance, celle-ci est massivement utilisée. C'est une chose que nos armées commencent à bien intégrer.

Aucune unité ukrainienne ou russe n'est sans moyen de reconnaissance. Image
Read 22 tweets
Nov 19
L'armée russe 🇷🇺 a pris le contrôle de la ville de Pokrovsk, les combats se poursuivent dans la ville voisine de Myrnohrad.

Dans le même temps, les bastions urbains de Siversk et Houlialpole qui tiennent depuis 3 ans sont désormais menacés.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️Image
C'est la plus grande ville prise depuis Bakhmout en mai 2023 (80 000 habitants), la chute de Pokrovsk (65 000 habitants) est désormais quasi-confirmée par les nombreuses vidéos géolocalisées.

C'est une victoire symbolique, mais également stratégique pour l'armée russe. Image
Après une très longue campagne dans le sud de l'oblast de Donetsk, qui a commencé par le dégagement de la banlieue de Donetsk en 2023-2024 (Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Marinka...), l'armée russe a poursuivit sa progression à l'ouest, encerclant progressivement Pokrovsk. Image
Read 16 tweets
Nov 18
Second day of a large offensive launched by the SAF 🟢around El Obeid in central Sudan 🇸🇩

After the failure of yesterday's attacks, the army pushed back the RSF 🟡 during massive pick-up fightings today.

A thread to know what is happening in Kordofan ?

🧵THREAD🧵1/14⬇️Image
Once more, the videos are crazy, hundreds of Sudan Army pick-up pushing through the Sahel, north-west of El Obeid.

With the summer season and the failure to push during April-August attempts forced a new strategy.
The SAF lost control of Al Fashir, Darfur capital city last month. The main fightings are now concentrated in the Kordofan region of central Sudan.

The RSF are pulling massive reserves from Al Fashir, with a lot of new supplies given by the UAE, going through Libya.
Read 14 tweets
Nov 16
Un camp de formation des FSR dans l'est de l'Ethiopie 🇪🇹

Pendant que l'armée soudanaise 🇸🇩 forme et entraine les rebelles tigréens du TPLF opposés à Addis Abeba, l'Ethiopie va ouvrir un camp de formation des FSR financé par les Emirats.

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️ Image
Pour bien expliquer :

L'armée soudanaise soutien les rebelles tigréens contre le pouvoir central, elle héberge même l'armée 70 du Tigré (plusieurs milliers d'hommes qui combattent avec l'armée soudanaise).

L'Armée 70 s'entraine et recrute dans l'est du Soudan.
Pour le moment, il n'y a pas de combats entre l'Etat central éthiopiens et le Tigré, même si une frappe de drone a eu lieu, la première depuis les accords de Pretoria contre des soldats tigréens qui avaient avancé dans la région voisine d'Afar.
Read 10 tweets
Nov 15
The operational situation for the ukrainian 🇺🇦 army is getting increasingy more difficult

After losing most of Pokrovsk, Ukraine is facing an accelerated advance towards Zaporizhzhia in the south.

Russia 🇷🇺 is pushing everywhere at a faster pace.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️Image
Weeks from today, I was posting this showing that Russia was pushing to Zaporizhia and that the city may be threathened next year.

I wasn't wrong, Russia not only continued to push but made it faster, threatening Hulialpole, one of the main stronghold. Image
After crossing the Uspenivka-Poltavka line in only few days, the russian army is getting in sight of the Pokrovsk'e-Ternuvate-Hulialpole line.

They already reached the main road and may go around Hulialpole, an old stronghold of the southern front. Image
Read 16 tweets
Nov 10
Le Mali 🇲🇱 va-t-il s'effondrer face à l'offensive du JNIM ?

Le blocus de la capitale Bamako, ne fait que s'intensifier depuis plusieurs semaines.

La poussée vers le sud des djihadistes fait craindre un effondrement, même s'ils ne contrôlent aucune ville.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️ Image
Il y a 2 mois, l'une des meilleures source cartographique sur le Mali (@criticalthreats) a publié cette carte du blocus de Bamako et des principales villes du pays par le JNIM (groupe de soutien à l'Islam et aux musulmans, liés à Al Qaïda). Image
Depuis ma dernière actualisation cartographique à la fin de l'été, le JNIM a progressé, principalement vers le centre et le sud du pays.

Celui-ci opère désormais dans la majorité du pays, même s'il ne met pas en place de contrôle direct du territoire. Image
Read 17 tweets

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