Clément Molin Profile picture
Oct 6, 2025 25 tweets 8 min read Read on X
*123 000 russian 🇷🇺 soldiers got killed in 2025 in Ukraine 🇺🇦, more than the french 🇫🇷 ground forces.

In total, 281 550 russian soldiers were lost in 2025 as per leaked report. It includes 123 000 killed and missing and 158 529 wounded.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
These leaked documents were initially shared by this account @hochuzhit_com which provided these two pictures.

*I don't know about the source which seems controversial but the data seems veracious since it is close to other data collected by Mediazona, the Ukrainian General Staff and independent analysts.

There is high possibility this can be a propaganda operation, but the data can still be used.Image
Image
The document is giving few interesting insights on the state of russian forces. With 83 000 killed, it's close to the Mediazona count (54 000 in August with verified data).

It is also giving data on particular units and different sectors.
Here is a graph with the location of russian losses in different sectors. I added both killed and missing because the term missing is often used to hide losses and most of the time, soldiers are dead (or captured, but it cannot be possible for Russia since it advances). Image
On a map, here is each sector with different losses. I gathered also Wounded in Action (WIA) and Prisonner of War (POW) because they can eventually be recovered.

On top, I put the total number for each direction. Image
The data is simply catastrophic for Russia. In only 9 months, it lost 53 572 soldiers in Kursk and Sumy including 19 567 killed, mainly not affiliated to any unit.

Most of those were lost during the Kursk counter-offensive and Sumy incursion. Image
In Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts, we have 21 698 killed russian soldiers, with a total number of 47 410 losses. Image
The data is also interesting because it gives informations for every unit. For example, the 1st tank army is pushing for Borova and Kupiansk, it took more than 21 000 losses for minimal gains.

The 20th and 25th armies are pushing for Lyman, they also took high losses. Image
For Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, but also Siversk and Chasiv Yar, Russia suffered catastrophic losses, nearly 100 000 thousands, including 43 263 killed.

Half of the dead are in this direction ! Image
We have crazy numbers for some units in the central part of Donbas.

The 2nd army (Pokrovsk) lost 31 575 soldiers including 15 310 killed, the 41st (South Pokrovsk) lost 20 879 soldiers including 7 443 dead and the 51st lost 27 340 soldiers including 13 008 killed... Image
More interesting is the specific data for the 90th Tank Division, with 7.2k losses including 3.5k killed, while it only advanced few kilometers on the Novopavlivka direction. Image
On the East direction (Pokrovsk-Hulialpole direction), losses are also very high for the russians. In total, 37 985 losses including 15 957 killed and missed. Image
Here again, we have detailed statistics. As @moklasen rightly stated in one of his posts today, "the 29th Army only has one brigade: the 36th MRB took 7.7k casualties since january".

The 5th army also took around 12 000 losses including 7 400 dead ! Image
In the south (Zaporijia), we have 32 740 russian losses, including 15 000 dead. The third army took half of the losses. Image
Finally for the Dnipro direction (Kherson and along the Dnipro river), we have 13 243 losses including 5 449 losses, mainly in the 58th army. Image
Now that we saw detailed statistics from each direction, let's see a general graphic of the main units with losses, PMC is for Kursk and sometimes units can be seen two times because their subordinated (brigades, divisions) are fighting in 2 different directions. Image
Now, some questions on this data :

Can it be true ? Yes or No. The ukrainians are giving official data which counts KIA, MIA, WIA and POW close to that.

The recognized ukrainian analyst @Tatarigami_UA said between 8 400–10 500 KIA are killed every month.
These are also the estimations of Mediazona for killed soldiers. With 9 640 killed per month, the data seems close to what is known. With the MIA, it would be 13 400 per month.

The document does not seem official, it could also be a made up. Still, it is interesting to analyse. Image
Another analyst, @AndrewPerpetua is counting all the russian soldiers killed by drone strikes (with the video proves). He says he is counting 4 000 to 4 500 a month and around 120 a day. Alone, he would have between 1/2 to 1/3 of all losses.
Why is the death tole so high ?

On this video alone (GRAPHIC ⚠️), we can see multiple bodies of russian soldiers near Pokrovsk. Due tot the drone threat, they have to walk or use motorcycles. On this case, crossing fortifications concentrate ukrainian fire.
This is the same in most of the Donbass. Ukrainian drone operators are hiding in the cities and launch hundreds of drones daily, whith part of them hitting russian soldiers on foot.

We have multiple videos of all those dead soldiers.
One of the main point of russian tactics is to assault with small teams. They do not recover their dead or their wounded.

If this tactic has proven right to advance, the data gathered today shows that it cost around 120 000 soldiers (KIA, MIA, WIA...) to reach Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka.
Of course, some will ask "What about Ukraine ?"

I do not have that precise data. Ualosses states that Ukraine lost 160 000 soldiers, including 77 000 missing, probably dead or captured since the begining of the war.
Ukraine is recovering its wounded soldiers, but not really its dead because they are mostly killed in frontline positions taken by the russians. The bodies are excghanged later, which explains the strong difference between both. Around 10 000 this year. Image
Thanks for following this thread. I will probably add here other analyses of other OSINT accounts on this data.

The main subject is russian slosses so don't start asking me 200 questions about Ukraine because I don't know.

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More from @clement_molin

Feb 6
On a 250 km long frontline, I managed to map 12 000 russian 🇷🇺 and ukrainian 🇺🇦 artillery strikes thanks to the snow cover

With this map, I'll analyse with precision the current trends and next movements on the frontline as well as the location of the frontline

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️ Image
The latest commercial satellite images (Sentinel-2) showed most of eastern Ukraine covered with snow, which is very useful.

Indeed, we can see every artillery and airstrike impacts, something we cannot see otherwise. I mapped 12 000 of them between Kostiantynivka and the Dnipro river, with two holes, the area around Novopavlivka/Ivanivka (some clouds) and the one north of Stepnohirsk and along the Dnipro, because there was no snow.

Disclaimer, this map is obviously not showing all the impacts, I may have missed some, and the ones in urban areas are a bit more difficult to map. Moreover, some of those impacts are in fact airstrikes, but it is a minority.

Let's start !Image
First, we can see 3 main areas of bombing : Pokrovsk-Dobrbropilla, Hulialpole-Ternuvate and Stepnohirsk.

There is one trend : Russia is putting a big effort to attack Orikhiv from both sides and to take Dobropilla in the first part of the year. Image
Read 20 tweets
Feb 1
L'attaque de l'aéroport de Niamey au Niger 🇳🇪 un an et demi après celui de Bamako au Mali 🇲🇱 est un signe très clair de l'augmentation des capacités djihadistes.

La situation sécuritaire des Etats de l'AES 🇲🇱🇳🇪🇧🇫 s'est tellement dégradée qu'elle menace désormais toute la région d'Afrique de l'Ouest.

L'attaque de l'aéroport de Niamey où sont stationnés la majorité de la force aérienne nigérienne (drones de combats qui permettaient, jusqu'à là d'obtenir des victoires locales contre les djihadistes), les 350 soldats italiens 🇮🇹 (qui n'ont pas combattu, semble-t-il) et les 200 soldats russes 🇷🇺 d'Africa Corps qui gardent le précieux convois d'Uranium (volé à la société Orano et qui devait prendre le chemin de la Russie) était prévisible.

Un an et demi auparavant, en septembre 2024, c'était l'aéroport de Bamako qui était attaqué par le JNIM, faisant de nombreuses victimes parmi les cadets de l'armée et détruisant plusieurs avions, dont l'avion présidentiel.Image
Les 3 états putshistes du Sahel, Mali, Niger et Burkina Faso, qui forment l'AES, l'Alliance des Etats du Sahel font face à l'explosion du terrorisme islamiste depuis qu'ils ont demandé le départ des occidentaux et de leurs alliés africains.

Tout a commencé par le départ forcé des français et des américains, les deux seuls états qui disposaient d'une force aérienne suffisante pour contrer les rassemblements djihadistes et permettre aux armées locales de tenir le terrain. Depuis, l'absence de cette force aérienne, compensée par quelques avions et hélicoptères russes et surtout des drones turcs ne permet plus de mener autant de missions qu'auparavant. Résultat, les deux groupes djihadistes concurrent, le JNIM (Al Qaida) et l'Etat Islamique, Province du Grand Sahara (EIGS) peuvent s'entrainer facilement, se déplacer dans les 3 états et lancer des offensives multiples, sans toutefois, occuper les principales villes, qui se transforment souvent en garnisons encerclées.

La stratégie des putschistes de mener une guerre beaucoup moins propre, en faisant venir Wagner, puis Africa Corps, en lançant des attaques de représailles contre les populations locales et en basant leur discours sur la propagande n'a pas vraiment fonctionné.

Les peuples du nord, marginalisés et menacés sont bien plus enclin à rejoindre les groupes djihadistes, ou, le cas échéant, les groupes séparatistes, comme les Touaregs de l'Azawad. Les djihadistes, profitant des défaillances généralisées des états locaux peuvent avancer vers des régions qu'ils ne contrôlaient pas, des régions plus riches, peuplées ou ils trouvent de quoi alimenter leurs forces et recruter des hommes.Image
Ces derniers jours, le JNIM a frappé l'ouest du Mali, détruisant 50 camions de carburant, tandis qu'en parallèle, l'Etat Islamique frappait Niamey et Ménaka au Mali.

En l'espace de 4 ans, les groupes djihadistes ont réalisé une expansion rapide vers le sud. Alors qu'ils étaient concentrés dans le nord du Sahel, ils sont désormais positionnés dans l'ouest et le sud du Mali, dans le nord de la plupart des Etats du golfe de Guinée, à peu près partout au Burkina Faso sauf dans la région centrale et principalement dans l'ouest du Niger.

Des Etats peuplés et aux ressources économiques conséquentes sont donc désormais menacés, à cause des 3 états de l'AES qui s'effondrent sur eux-mêmes.

▪️Le Mali, en voulant décapiter l'Azawad a provoqué l'effet inverse. Les rebelles sont désormais coalisés au sein du FLA. La présence des FAMA et de l'Africa Corps aux confins du nord du Mali requiert ainsi une ligne logistique de moins en moins tenable. Et ce, alors qu'au même moment, le JNIM en a profité pour assiéger de fait les principales villes du Nord et du Centre et faire son apparition au sud et à l'ouest, comme nous l'avons vu avec les attaques sur les ressources de carburants. Aujourd'hui, un voyage entre Bamako et la frontière Sénégalaise se fait forcément par un passage via un checkpoint du JNIM, obligeant la ségrégation dans les bus.
▪️Le Burkina Faso a lui fait le choix des milices locales d'auto-défense, les VDP, pour l'aider à combattre le JNIM à l'ouest et au nord et l'EIGS au nord et à l'est. Le pays est dans une situation catastrophique face à la progression djihadiste, qui se permettent parfois des entrées dans de petites villes.
▪️Le Niger est principalement touché à l'ouest, avec l'EIGS qui est présent à quelques dizaines de km de la capitale Niamey. La situation du pays est aussi mauvaise, comme nous l'avons vu avec la dernière attaque, que celle de ses voisins, d'après de nombreuses sources russes (Telegram), l'armée nigérienne n'a pas vraiment défendue l'aéroport de Niamey et la force aérienne aurait été annihilée sans la présence des soldats russes.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 30
‼️A new war may be starting in Ethiopia 🇪🇹 ‼️

Only 3 years after the ceasefire of the devastating Tigray war (600 000 dead), a new war is on the verge in northern Ethiopia

This time, Sudan🇸🇩 Erytrea🇪🇷 Somalia🇸🇴 the UAE🇦🇪 Egypt🇪🇬 and others may be implicated.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️Image
What we are calling the "Pretoria Peace Deal" now seems closer than never to belong to the past.

Already, 5 months after the deal between Tigray and Ethiopia (november 2nd 2022), a new war was starting, this time in Amhara, Ethiopia second most populated region. Image
The war in Tigray lasted 3 years. It saw the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), the Amhara special forces and Eritrean troops occupy most of Tigray before being humiliated by a massive TPLF counter-offensive.

The war ended in status quo, on the border of the state. Image
Read 17 tweets
Jan 28
Le réveil européen 🇪🇺 tant annoncé en 2022 n'a eu lieu que dans la tête et le discours des dirigeants après 4 ans de guerre.

On nous a promis un "tournant historique" qui n'arrive pas et pendant ce temps nos adversaire s'affutent. L'heure est à un premier bilan.

🧵THREAD🧵1/7⬇️ Image
Les grands sommets, Versailles en tête, étaient censés inculquer une nouvelle dynamique. Une Europe puissance, capable de tenir tête à la Russie seule.

Les discours martiaux appelant au réarmement, à la défense européenne, au basculement stratégique n'ont pas donné de véritable suite.

D'abord, il a fallu du temps, beaucoup de temps pour se réveiller. Quand certains avaient commencés en 2014, d'autre sont partis de presque 0 en 2022, comme l'Allemagne. Il y a un bon élève, la Pologne, qui dépense 4.8% de son PIB pour la défense, qui recrute énormément pour l'armée, mais, en achetant principalement hors UE.

Les autres font mieux, mais la lenteur du processus est frappante. Certains ne se sentent même pas concernés (Espagne ou Italie)...Image
Entre 60 et 80% des armes achetés par les états membre de l'UE depuis 2022 ne proviennent pas de l'UE.

64% sont achetés directement aux Etats-Unis. Un symbole, le F35, choisit par 13 !!! Etats européens. En sachant que :*

-Le F35 est très cher
-Sa maintenance est complexe
-Les Etats-Unis peuvent l'empêcher de voler
-C'est un avion qui est très performant mais fragile, très couteux à faire voler…

Dans le cas des Etats-Unis, malgré 4 ans de guerre à l'est (et une aide américaine qui baisse constamment), les pays européens n'ont pas vraiment changé de doctrine. Certes, l'Europe aide plus l'Ukraine que les Etats-Unis, mais elle continue de compter sur Washington pour sa défense.Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 26
Big victory for the Sudanese 🇸🇩 Army after they lifted the 2.5 years long siege of the city of Dilling

It is the biggest victory for the SAF since they liberated the capital city a year ago. At the same time, RSF attempted to open a new front in Blue Nile.

🧵THREAD🧵1/9 ⬇️ Image
Massive forces led by the 5th division of El Obeid, the 10th division of Abu Jubaynah as well as the brigades 53rd and 38th and joint forces entered today the city of Dilling in South Kordofan.

After a month long counter-offensive south of El Obeid, those forces took the Rapid Support Forces by surprise, pushed on open terrain between the Nuba mountains and reached Habila this morning.
After that, they continued their push and reached the city of Dilling, one of the two remaining encircled garrison (after most fell, apart from Kadugli, capital city of south Kordofan, still encircled.

Held by the 54th infantry brigade alone, the city stood 2.5 years.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 25
Why is there a war ongoing in Sudan 🇸🇩 ?

Who are the actors, why are they fighting ? Is the conflict origine from money, gold, oil, power, religion or ethnicities ? Which foreign powers are involved ?

Here, you will find a general guide of the Sudan war :

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️Image
When did it start ?

On april 15th 2023. Where ? In Khartoum, the capital city, unlike previous conflicts.

Sudan was already partly at war before, discontinuously since 1983 (1983-2005, 2nd South Sudan war, 2003-2020, Darfur war, 2011-2020, South Kordofan and Blue Nile war).Image
Who is fighting :

The Sudanese Armed Forces :

The SAF are based in Khartoum and Port Sudan; they defend the state's borders and internal stability. Their leader is Al-Burhan, and the military commanders are heirs to the military-Islamist regime of Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019).Image
Read 24 tweets

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