Clément Molin Profile picture
Oct 6 25 tweets 8 min read Read on X
*123 000 russian 🇷🇺 soldiers got killed in 2025 in Ukraine 🇺🇦, more than the french 🇫🇷 ground forces.

In total, 281 550 russian soldiers were lost in 2025 as per leaked report. It includes 123 000 killed and missing and 158 529 wounded.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
These leaked documents were initially shared by this account @hochuzhit_com which provided these two pictures.

*I don't know about the source which seems controversial but the data seems veracious since it is close to other data collected by Mediazona, the Ukrainian General Staff and independent analysts.

There is high possibility this can be a propaganda operation, but the data can still be used.Image
Image
The document is giving few interesting insights on the state of russian forces. With 83 000 killed, it's close to the Mediazona count (54 000 in August with verified data).

It is also giving data on particular units and different sectors.
Here is a graph with the location of russian losses in different sectors. I added both killed and missing because the term missing is often used to hide losses and most of the time, soldiers are dead (or captured, but it cannot be possible for Russia since it advances). Image
On a map, here is each sector with different losses. I gathered also Wounded in Action (WIA) and Prisonner of War (POW) because they can eventually be recovered.

On top, I put the total number for each direction. Image
The data is simply catastrophic for Russia. In only 9 months, it lost 53 572 soldiers in Kursk and Sumy including 19 567 killed, mainly not affiliated to any unit.

Most of those were lost during the Kursk counter-offensive and Sumy incursion. Image
In Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts, we have 21 698 killed russian soldiers, with a total number of 47 410 losses. Image
The data is also interesting because it gives informations for every unit. For example, the 1st tank army is pushing for Borova and Kupiansk, it took more than 21 000 losses for minimal gains.

The 20th and 25th armies are pushing for Lyman, they also took high losses. Image
For Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, but also Siversk and Chasiv Yar, Russia suffered catastrophic losses, nearly 100 000 thousands, including 43 263 killed.

Half of the dead are in this direction ! Image
We have crazy numbers for some units in the central part of Donbas.

The 2nd army (Pokrovsk) lost 31 575 soldiers including 15 310 killed, the 41st (South Pokrovsk) lost 20 879 soldiers including 7 443 dead and the 51st lost 27 340 soldiers including 13 008 killed... Image
More interesting is the specific data for the 90th Tank Division, with 7.2k losses including 3.5k killed, while it only advanced few kilometers on the Novopavlivka direction. Image
On the East direction (Pokrovsk-Hulialpole direction), losses are also very high for the russians. In total, 37 985 losses including 15 957 killed and missed. Image
Here again, we have detailed statistics. As @moklasen rightly stated in one of his posts today, "the 29th Army only has one brigade: the 36th MRB took 7.7k casualties since january".

The 5th army also took around 12 000 losses including 7 400 dead ! Image
In the south (Zaporijia), we have 32 740 russian losses, including 15 000 dead. The third army took half of the losses. Image
Finally for the Dnipro direction (Kherson and along the Dnipro river), we have 13 243 losses including 5 449 losses, mainly in the 58th army. Image
Now that we saw detailed statistics from each direction, let's see a general graphic of the main units with losses, PMC is for Kursk and sometimes units can be seen two times because their subordinated (brigades, divisions) are fighting in 2 different directions. Image
Now, some questions on this data :

Can it be true ? Yes or No. The ukrainians are giving official data which counts KIA, MIA, WIA and POW close to that.

The recognized ukrainian analyst @Tatarigami_UA said between 8 400–10 500 KIA are killed every month.
These are also the estimations of Mediazona for killed soldiers. With 9 640 killed per month, the data seems close to what is known. With the MIA, it would be 13 400 per month.

The document does not seem official, it could also be a made up. Still, it is interesting to analyse. Image
Another analyst, @AndrewPerpetua is counting all the russian soldiers killed by drone strikes (with the video proves). He says he is counting 4 000 to 4 500 a month and around 120 a day. Alone, he would have between 1/2 to 1/3 of all losses.
Why is the death tole so high ?

On this video alone (GRAPHIC ⚠️), we can see multiple bodies of russian soldiers near Pokrovsk. Due tot the drone threat, they have to walk or use motorcycles. On this case, crossing fortifications concentrate ukrainian fire.
This is the same in most of the Donbass. Ukrainian drone operators are hiding in the cities and launch hundreds of drones daily, whith part of them hitting russian soldiers on foot.

We have multiple videos of all those dead soldiers.
One of the main point of russian tactics is to assault with small teams. They do not recover their dead or their wounded.

If this tactic has proven right to advance, the data gathered today shows that it cost around 120 000 soldiers (KIA, MIA, WIA...) to reach Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka.
Of course, some will ask "What about Ukraine ?"

I do not have that precise data. Ualosses states that Ukraine lost 160 000 soldiers, including 77 000 missing, probably dead or captured since the begining of the war.
Ukraine is recovering its wounded soldiers, but not really its dead because they are mostly killed in frontline positions taken by the russians. The bodies are excghanged later, which explains the strong difference between both. Around 10 000 this year. Image
Thanks for following this thread. I will probably add here other analyses of other OSINT accounts on this data.

The main subject is russian slosses so don't start asking me 200 questions about Ukraine because I don't know.

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More from @clement_molin

Oct 5
Depuis le mois de mai 2025, la Russie 🇷🇺 a lâché 19 752 bombes guidées, dont 30% à Pokrovsk et 19% à Soumy.

Depuis le début de l'année, 35 148 bombes ont été lâchées ainsi que 1 488 990 frappes d'artilleries et 923 047 frappes de drones FPV.

Statistiques :

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️ Image
Depuis que je cartographie les frappes aériennes russes, j'ai pu en localiser environ 65% (principalement à Pokrovsk, Soumy et Pokrovsk'e).

Le reste non cartographié est probablement à Kherson, Zaporizhia, Kramatorsk, Koupiansk ou Kharkiv. Image
Hier, j'ai publié cette carte des plus de 6 000 frappes aériennes russes entre Pokrovsk et Kostiantynivka sur les 5 derniers mois, avec différents codes couleurs. Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 4
Will Russia 🇷🇺 break the frontline again ?

Since few weeks, russian forces started again to push for Drujkivka, while hundreds of russians are still isolated.

I mapped all airstrikes there and at the same time, Ukraine 🇺🇦 is preparing the 3rd Donbass line🧑‍🔧.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
Since two months, there have been a massive split between analysts. Pro-ukrainian or pro-russian sources are divided to understand how much km2 fell this month to Russia.

Many fail to understand the new logics of war. Image
Image
For example :

-Some will map an area as russian because a ukrainian drone striked russian soldiers there or a russian was seen with a flag.
-Some will map a large grey zone

I would myself map the grey zone for one main reason :
Read 25 tweets
Oct 3
En #Birmanie🇲🇲, la guerre dure depuis 4 ans et demi

Après le coup d'état des militaires de 2021, le pays a plongé dans la guerre civile.

Celle-ci oppose rébellions ethniques et pro-démocratie à la junte militaire soutenue par la Russie 🇷🇺 et la Chine 🇨🇳.

🧵THREAD🧵1/19 ⬇️Carte de @ThomasVLinge que j'ai modifié
Depuis plusieurs mois, la contre-offensive de la Tatmadaw -nom de l'armée birmane- dans l'Etat Shan progresse lentement.

Progressivement, la junte a renversé les gains de l'opération 1024 débuté en 2023 d'après @MyanmarWarMap

Image
D'un autre côté, @Nrg8000 a fait un bon travail avec la carte de Thomas Van Linge.

On voit en rouge les gains de la junte sur l'année passée et en bleu les gains de la coalition rebelle. Image
Read 19 tweets
Oct 1
L'Arménie🇦🇲peut-elle disparaitre ?

C'était le titre d'une conférence à laquelle j'avais assisté en 2022 auprès de la communauté arménienne en France. A l'époque, l'Azerbaïdjan🇦🇿 avait envahit 300km2 d'Arménie.

Pourtant, le contexte a changé et les enjeux aussi

🧵THREAD🧵1/19⬇️Image
J'ai terminé de cartographier l'ensemble des positions militaires arméniennes et azerbaïdjanaises le long de leur frontière bilatérale.

En tout, ce sont plus de 1 400 positions arméniennes et 1 000 positions azerbaïdjanaises recensées. Image
Ces positions nous permettent de voir la vulnérabilité arménienne, encerclée de deux côté, notamment au sud, par l'Azerbaïdjan.

On remarque également les quelques 300 km2 de terres arméniennes (frontière de 1991) occupés par l'Azerbaïdjan, ici à Vardenis. Image
Read 19 tweets
Sep 30
'South Donetsk' the main battle in Ukraine 🇺🇦 for now 2 years

After two months of forced "pause" in Pokrovsk, it seems Russia🇷🇺 is pushing again. At the same time, the push for Pokrovsk'e has not observed any pause.

Let's talk about the main battle in Ukraine

🧵THREAD🧵1/22⬇️
You all know my classification of the ukrainian war into different battle : Kyiv, Kherson I, Kharkiv I, Donbass I, Kharkiv II, Kherson II, Donbass II, Zaporizhia, Kursk and Donbass III ongoing.

This third Donbass battle since 2022 is for Donetsk and now Pokrovsk. Image
To remember, the first one occured with the first reorganisation of russian forces after their failure to take Kyiv, taking Marioupol and Sievierodonetsk.

They moved then to Kherson and started after the withdrawal the second one for Bakhmut. The third one started in nov. 2023.
Read 22 tweets
Sep 28
A regional war in the horn of Africa between many actors

I talked about Sudan🇸🇩, about Somalia🇸🇴, about Ethiopia 🇪🇹 and about South Sudan 🇸🇸. All these conflicts are in fact a larger regional war between local and foreign powers, we can see this map with Sudan

🧵THREAD🧵1/11 ⬇️Image
The war in Sudan is opposing the army led by Al Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces led by Hemetti.

However this cannot be only seen as a local civil war. Its implications are wider. Same for the Ethiopian, Somalian and South Sudanese conflicts. Image
Image
The SAF allies :

-Turkiye 🇹🇷
-Egypt 🇪🇬
-TPLF (Tigray rebel forces in Ethiopia)🇪🇹
-SPLM-N (South Sudan Nuer rebellion of Machar)
-Iran 🇮🇷
-Qatar 🇶🇦
-Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 (traditionnaly, but with more neutral position currently) Image
Read 11 tweets

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