1/✍️
"Russian troops suffered the greatest losses on three fronts in Ukraine: ISW explained what lies behind the numbers"
Recently, a leak of Russian documents revealed the real losses of the Russian Federation on the front since the beginning of 2025.
It also indicated that on some fronts, the Russians are suffering abnormally high losses:
- the ratio of killed to wounded is almost 1 to 1 – compared to the classic ratio of 1 to 3.
The aggressor paid the highest price on several priority fronts for Moscow, but the gains there for Russia are practically negligible.
The leaked data indicate this, and the Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar explained what can be said about the prospects of continuing the war based on the current losses of the #Russian Federation. understandingwar.org/research/russi…
2/ The ratio of killed and wounded in the Russian army is abnormally high
Analysts have drawn attention to the leak of Russian data on the losses of the occupation army , published recently by the "I Want to Live" project .
👇 war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/kolosalni-…
According to the leak, from January to August of this year, Russia lost a total of 281,550 of its soldiers on the battlefield .
86,744 people were eliminated (including 1,583 officers and 8,633 recruits ).
33,996 people are considered missing , including 11,427 recruits .
Another 158,529 were wounded in battle (this figure includes 6,356 officers and 16,489 enlisted men ), and 2,311 were taken prisoner.
These figures, noted ISW, are practically in line with the data announced by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky:
299,210 people killed and wounded as of September 9.
3/ The ratio of killed and wounded occupiers is interesting :
- it is 1:1.3 .
Analysts suggest that this is due to insufficient tactical medical training and the frequent inability of the Russian military command to sufficiently rehabilitate the wounded.
" The standard ratio of killed to wounded is 1:3 , which demonstrates that Russian forces currently have an abnormally high ratio of killed to wounded (1:1.3), likely due to the effectiveness of widespread tactical drone strikes , which have created hit zones (an area immediately near the front line where the mass of tactical strike and reconnaissance drones poses an increased risk to any equipment or personnel entering the area) throughout the theater of operations, making it difficult for both sides to evacuate the wounded and triage them," the material says
Analysts also recalled that ISW previously reported that wounded invaders are often not evacuated due to the threat of strikes by Ukrainian drones....
4/ "Where the Russian occupiers suffer the greatest losses"
Data released by the "I Want to Live" project -
- indicates that the Russians suffered the greatest losses in 2025 on several front lines - those that are priorities for the Russian command.
Thus, among the "record holders" is the "Center" group of troops of the Russian Armed Forces , responsible for the Pokrovsky direction : from January to August, it had 43,709 killed, missing and captured, as well as 52,865 wounded .
"These figures reflect the priority of the Russian military command on the Pokrovsky direction during 2025, as Russian troops suffered approximately 34% of their losses in this direction during the first eight months of 2025," the material says
5/ Within the "Center" group of forces itself, there are also clear "leaders" . These are the 2nd Combined Arms Army , which lost 15,310 people killed, missing and captured , as well as 16,260 wounded , and the 51st Army (former 1st Army Corps "DPR") with 13,000 people killed, missing and captured , as well as 14,201 wounded.
The Russian 2nd Combined Arms Army has been mainly engaged in battles south and east of Pokrovsk since October 2023, while the 51st was redeployed to the front line east of Pokrovsk in early 2025 and is currently responsible for the Russian breakthrough in the Dobropillya area.
Analysts also mentioned the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Center Group of Forces of the Russian Armed Forces, which operated in the Novopavlovsk and Pokrovsk directions and lost 7,544 people killed, missing and captured , as well as 13,335 wounded.
"Russian forces were unable to capture Pokrovsk, Myrnograd, Novopavlivka, and Druzhkivka after months of fighting, despite significant losses ," ISW noted
Not far behind the "Center" was the "North " group of troops, which in early 2025, as analysts noted, "prevented significant penetration of Ukraine into the Kursk region " and is responsible for Russia's efforts to create buffer zones in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions : it lost a total of 53,572 people.
6/ "Russian forces may have suffered a significant portion of these losses during the intensified Russian efforts to retake the Kursk region in February and March 2025 ," the material states.
The top three "leaders" also include the "West" group of troops, responsible for the Kupyansky, Lymansky and Borivsky directions :
- it lost a total of 47,410 servicemen.
Thus, the 1st Guards Tank Army, which was mainly involved in the Lyman and Kupyan directions, lost 9,987 people killed, missing and captured , as well as 11,411 wounded .
This is the third largest figure among the Russian naval forces fighting in Ukraine. And such losses, analysts emphasize, emphasize the intensity of the fighting in the Kupyan and Lyman directions in recent months.
The 20th Combined Arms Army of the "West" Group of Forces, which operated in the Boriv and Lyman directions, lost 6,410 people killed, missing and captured , as well as 5,712 wounded.
7/ "The Western Group of Forces failed to capture any of the main settlements in its area of responsibility — Kupyansk, Borova, and Lyman — in 2025," analysts pointed out the result of Russian efforts, which cost such losses.
The occupiers also suffered significant losses on less priority areas of the front in eastern and southern Ukraine for Moscow
Thus, the "South" group of troops , which operated in the tactical area of #KostyantynivkaDruzhkivka and in the #Siversk direction, lost a total of 32,740 people , while the 3rd Combined Arms Army (former 2nd AK "LPR") in the Siversk area lost 13,055 soldiers, which is the largest figure in the group of troops.
"The Southern Group of Forces has made minimal progress since the capture of Toretsk in June 2025," ISW recalled.
The "East" group of troops , responsible for the eastern part of the Zaporizhia region and the Velikomykhailiv direction , lost 38,011 people .
At the same time, the 5th combined arms army , responsible for the #Russian advance into the #Dnipropetrovsk region and its territory , lost 16,980 servicemen :
- the highest figure in this group of troops
8/ "Combat operations in the Dnipro Group of Forces area of operation , which includes the Kherson direction and western Zaporizhia region , remain relatively unsystematic amid Russia's ongoing efforts to restore the front line in western Zaporizhia region, where the Dnipro Group of Forces suffered 13,243 casualties ," analysts noted.
9/ Will colossal losses stop Russia?
- Russian insider sources indicated that from January 1 to September 15 of this year, the Russian Ministry of Defense recruited 292,000 new recruits :
- on average, 31,600 people sign contracts every month .
At the same time, according to leaked data published by the
"I Want to Live" project, -
- from January to August the occupation army lost about 281,550 people , or an average of 35,193 people per month
" Russia 's 2025 casualty figures appear somewhat higher than Russia's current monthly recruitment figures, but Russia's casualty figures have been declining over the past four months .
The Russian General Staff may assume that casualty rates in Ukraine will continue to decline if Russian forces can improve their ability to withstand the impact zone, and this reasoning may explain why Russia is reportedly beginning to build a strategic reserve for future deployments," ISW noted
10/ Analysts recalled their previous estimates of a certain decrease in the level of occupier losses in the summer of 2025 compared to the fall or spring of 2024 , when they managed to advance at a somewhat lower cost.
ISW sees this partly as the fact that the occupiers focused on using UAVs to block Ukrainian logistics in rear areas during this period .
"Russia has proven its ability to recruit enough people to cover losses in Ukraine over the past three years, perhaps starting to build a strategic reserve, and the Kremlin is unlikely to abandon operations in Ukraine or slow down as long as Russia can continue to sustain such losses ," ISW summarized
ISW previously stated that #Russia is accelerating its information campaign to prepare for a possible war with NATO. obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-n…
Experts analyzed the Kremlin's actions and suggested what exactly was behind them.
11/ The aggressor country Russia is accelerating information and psychological preparations for a possible war with NATO.
"In particular, the Russians may stage a provocation under a foreign flag."
This is evidenced by a statement from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service that the United Kingdom is allegedly planning for a group of pro-Ukrainian Russians fighting for Ukraine to attack a Ukrainian Navy ship or a foreign civilian vessel in a European port, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War. understandingwar.org/research/russi…
12/ "Preparing the ground for war against #NATO"
Russian intelligence has said that the provocation will allegedly be aimed at discrediting Moscow.
According to the legend of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, the saboteurs will claim that they acted on orders from Moscow and that the UK plans to equip the group with Chinese-made underwater equipment in order to accuse Beijing of supporting aggression against Ukraine
Analysts note that the statement by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service follows similar false statements about European states such as Poland, Moldova and Serbia .
At the same time, ISW @TheStudyofWar emphasized that the Russians have become more frequent in recent weeks , which represents a new coordinated model of information and psychological campaign
13/ According to experts, Russia is conducting coordinated preparations as part of the phase of creating physical and psychological conditions for military contingencies. In recent years, Russia has participated in various overt and covert attacks on NATO countries, such as sabotage missions, electronic warfare jamming, GPS jamming, and arson
In addition, Russia has significantly increased these attacks on NATO states in recent weeks since the fall of 2025.
The most notable actions of the aggressor have been the incursion of drones into NATO airspace.
This pattern of organized activity suggests that Russia has entered the first phase of preparations for a transition to a higher level of warfare than the one in which Russia is currently engaged, for example, a future war with NATO
14/ "Moscow is still afraid of war with NATO"
ISW analysts said the Kremlin has not yet decided whether to engage in such a larger war. It is also unclear when the Kremlin might attempt open aggression against the West
At this stage, Russia is implementing long-term plans that, according to ISW, could be part of preparations for a future war between NATO and Russia.
This includes restructuring Russia’s military districts on its western border and building up military bases on the border with Finland.
At the same time, ISW has not yet found any signs that Russia is actively preparing for an imminent conflict with NATO.
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In recent weeks, incidents of drones being spotted over civilian infrastructure such as power plants and airports have become more frequent in Europe. obozrevatel.com/ukr/novosti-mi…
Unidentified UAVs have been recorded in
• Germany,
• Belgium,
• France,
• Norway,
• Sweden,
• Finland and
• Lithuania.
15/ At the same time, it was Russian drones that flew into #Poland and #Romania , which caused a rather violent reaction among European governments.
Representatives of European countries are convinced that Russia is involved in launching drones over infrastructure facilities in various countries.
Moreover, Europeans believe that in this way the Russian Federation is probing NATO's defenses.
There are also concerns that the drones could have been launched from tankers in the so-called shadow fleet , which is the backbone of Russia's attempts to circumvent Western oil sanctions.
French authorities briefly detained one of these vessels last week after it was found to be passing through the Baltic Sea at the time several drones were spotted
This has prompted calls for a high-tech "drone wall" to protect the continent from future incursions by Russia's drone arsenal.
Few such defences exist today, with Britain protected only by Royal Air Force fighter jets and six Royal Navy destroyers.
To properly defend itself, Europe will need to ramp up military production to levels not seen since the Cold War and decide how to respond to Russia's hybrid warfare, experts say.
But questions are being raised about whether defense budgets are growing fast enough to cope with the threat, and whether bureaucratic red tape threatens to undermine NATO's response
17/ One British military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that this was exactly the kind of activity that Europe had expected to see from Russia.
The source noted that Russia's actions were causing serious damage because infrastructure was not protected from such attacks.
"Frankly, it is now impossible to draw a line between a hot war and a cold war. Because if you accept that these are deliberate actions by Russia, it is difficult not to conclude that we have been in a state of hybrid conflict with them for a long time," said one British military official.
18/18
What preceded
The European Political Community summit focused on recent airspace violations in Denmark, Poland, Romania, Norway and Estonia. One of the latest drone incidents occurred in Belgium.
The country's authorities were investigating the detection of 15 drones, which, according to #Belgian media reports, were seen over the #Elsenborn military facility near the #German border on October 2
After being detected, the drones reportedly flew from Belgium to Germany, where they were also spotted by police in the small German town of Düren. However, neither the military nor law enforcement were able to determine the origin of the drones or who was flying them.
As a reminder, on October 4, the airspace over Vilnius Airport was restricted, preventing aircraft from leaving the air harbor and landing.
The temporary restrictions were related to the appearance of hot air balloons. obozrevatel.com/ukr/novosti-mi…
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Munich Airport (Germany) completely suspended operations twice in a day, preventing planes from landing or leaving the air harbor. obozrevatel.com/ukr/novosti-mi…
The reason for the airport shutdown was "an unconfirmed detection of drones."
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1/ The Chancellor of Germany stated that the country can no longer consider itself peaceful due to constant cyberattacks and sabotage.
Friedrich Merz emphasized that the threats have become daily: from attacks on data centers and digital infrastructure to espionage operations and drones.
"We are not at war, but we do not live in peace either,"
– Merz concluded.
"Drones spotted again in SH: State police strengthen defense"
Following Denmark, several drones have now been sighted over Schleswig-Holstein. The Ministry of the Interior says it is currently evaluating the incidents. The state police are strengthening their drone defenses.
Several drones were spotted over Schleswig-Holstein overnight into Friday. According to Interior Minister Sabine Sütterlin-Waack (CDU), the suspicion of espionage is now being investigated.
2/ The Interior Ministry is in "intensive and ongoing discussions" with the federal government and the Bundeswehr. The state police are strengthening their drone defenses in coordination with the other northern German states.
The minister did not provide any details on how many drones were spotted and where.
"Border controls due to possible drone transports"
3/ The government in Copenhagen is calling it a hybrid attack and assumes that a professional actor is behind the overflights. Danish authorities say they are on constant alert and have also intensified their border controls due to possible drone transports.
Where the drones originated and what is behind the overflights remains unclear.
All authorities are very vigilant, and the security situation has not changed, Sütterlin-Waack said.
1/ Kimmel jabs 'bully' Trump for restricting free speech
"We have to speak out against this bully. He’s not stopping. And it’s not just comedy.
He’s gunning for our journalists too," TV host said, referring to the U.S. president.
Late-night TV host Jimmy @JimmyKimmelLive returned to the airwaves Tuesday night to lambast the @realDonaldTrump administration’s “mob tactics to suppress free speech,”
2/ In his comeback show, Kimmel said through tears about right-wing activist Kirk:
“It was never my intention to make light of the murder of a young man. I don’t think there’s anything funny about it.”
He went on to mount an impassioned defense of free speech, saying:
“This show is not important. What is important is that we live in a country that allows us to have a show like this.....
3/ Kimmel was pulled off the air indefinitely by the ABC network and its owner Disney on Sept. 17 after he said Republicans had mischaracterized the background of Kirk’s killer for political gain and likened President Donald Trump’s reaction to the assassination to that of a 4-year-old mourning the death of a goldfish.
In response, U.S. Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr warned broadcasters that politico.com/news/magazine/…
“we can do this the easy way or the hard way,” adding:
“These companies can find ways to change conduct and take action, frankly, on Kimmel or, you know, there’s going to be additional work for the FCC ahead.”
‘You have been warned’ so don’t ‘whine’ if your jets are shot down in NATO airspace
Radosław Sikorski upbraids Moscow for being “incapable of living in peace” with its neighbors following a series of incursions into NATO airspace.
politico.eu/article/radosl…
("I have only one request to the Russian government: If another missile or aircraft enters our space without permission, deliberately or by mistake, and gets shot down and the wreckage falls on NATO territory, please don't come here to whine about it," Radosław Sikorski said. | Vitalii Nosach/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
2/ Russia shouldn't complain at the United Nations if its missiles or aircraft are shot down after entering NATO airspace, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned Moscow on Monday.
3/ Sikorski was speaking at an emergency session of the U.N. Security Council in New York. news.un.org/en/story/2025/…
An Swedish well known expert of eastern Europe security wrote this evening Joakim von Braun
(translated from Swedish, yes its an strange language by the vikings.. 😇/Lewi)
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Oil Blitz – Ukraine’s bombing of the Russian oil industry
Ukraine’s extensive attacks targeting Russia’s oil refineries, oil storage facilities, pipelines, etc. have caused serious damage to the entire Russian energy industry.
The attacks, combined with the increasingly extensive sanctions imposed by Western countries, have made it very difficult for Russia to carry out repairs and reconstruction to the extent now required.
The results are a reduction in Russian production of approximately 10-15 percent.
At the same time, the Ukrainian attacks are extending further into Russia and soon it seems that Ukraine can hit important targets throughout the territory of Russia!
Attacks far into Russia
In early 2025, Russia’s largest commercial port in Ust-Luga was attacked, which is located 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine on the Baltic Sea (sic!) and in February, Rosneft’s oil refinery in Saratov was attacked a full 1,500 kilometers away.
2/ A month later, the Bashneft refinery in Ufa, 1,400 kilometers away, was hit by a huge fire.
- In May, Ukraine received several hits at a refinery in Bashkiria at a distance of 1,300 km.
I would like to remind you that the distance between Stockholm ( Sweden )and Gothenburg ( Sweden ) is a little over 400 kilometers, which puts the distances a little in a Swedish perspective.
10 days ago, Russia's major oil port in Primorsk near Vyborg on the Baltic Sea was attacked. This target is also over 1,500 kilometers away.
There are a total of 18 large oil tanks here for storing oil. In addition, a total of 5 Russian airports were closed in connection with the attack, which meant that the next 30 flights had to be canceled.
Earlier yesterday, Gazprom's Salavat oil refinery in Bashkortostan was also attacked, about 1,400 kilometers from Ukraine's border with Russia.
( wich I wrote about yesterday with video and pics/Lewi )
Salavat is one of Russia's largest oil refining and petrochemical plants, producing gasoline, diesel fuel and other petroleum products. On the same day, Lukoil's Volgogradneftepererabotka oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast was attacked by at least 11 drones.
The plant is now reportedly closed! During the last 18-month period in 2024-2025, Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka has been attacked at least 12 times. The company accounts for almost 6 percent of Russia's production.
3/ Earlier today, the Saratov and Novokuibyshevsk oil refineries were also attacked, both of which suffered extensive fires.
Rosneft's Saratov facility has been attacked several times earlier this year.
The Russian population is now increasingly affected by canceled flights and long lines at the country's gas stations.
Russians are increasingly seeing the thick plumes of burning oil facilities that indicate Ukraine's successful attacks.
Today's DN (Big Swedish Newsmedia ) cites a survey in Russia that shows that ".... 79 percent of those surveyed in Russia have experienced that the mobile network does not work and 43 percent have experienced electricity and water being turned off.
31 percent have noticed that railway stations and airports have been closed." (dn.se/varlden/anna-l…)
2/ The "number one man" in Vladimir Putin's entourage
is russian billionaire oligarch Yuri Kovalchuk .
However, the Kremlin leader, like most dictators, intends to rule until the end of his life and does not count on any successors in this regard.obozrevatel.com/ukr/person/vla…
3/ This opinion was expressed by russian oppositionist Olga Kurnosova .
In an exclusive interview
she denied that Deputy Prime Minister of the russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev is the Kremlin's gray cardinal .war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/vtecha-z-k…
1/ One year after the destruction of the GRU arsenal in the #TVer region of the russian Federation:
- Why this was the most daring SBU operation at that time
The Special Operations Center "A" of the SBU shared details of the operation in #Toropets, Tver region, which took place exactly one year ago.
Fighters of the SOC "A" demonstrated how, thanks to the coordination and management of the SBU, high-precision strikes were planned and carried out on the 107th GRU arsenal – destroying hundreds of thousands of tons of ammunition and a significant part of russian reserves.
Within the Special Operations Center "A" they say:
"Thanks to the coordination and management of the SBU, we were able to first analyze, plan, and carry out high-precision strikes on the 107th weapons arsenal in Toropets, Tver region." instagram.com/p/DOvAMmyDHAB/…
2/ The Defense Express publication
also conducted an OSINT analysis that confirms the version of the drone launch from the territory of the russian Federation and adds technical details of the visual footagedefence-ua.com/photo/udar_sbu…
3/ 'Reaction and details"
The SBU published a video of the drone launch – the short night footage gave analysts more than it seems at first glance.
The recordings show a starry sky, and by comparing the positions of the constellations with the date of the attack – September 18, 2024 – experts reconstructed a possible launch trajectory .
This gave grounds to claim that the launches were carried out from deep inside enemy territory, and not from the side of #Ukraine.....