Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Tyler Neville Profile picture
@Tyler_Neville_
Oct 10 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
A little macro thread to keep on your radar.

Some divergences happening today.

2 year inflation breakevens are telling us there is something funky going on.

They are rolling over to the downside indicating deflationary pressures are building, not inflationary!!

Where are the inflationistas?!

Fed probably needs to ease faster.

Oil under $59 bucks and HY Credit spreads are widening.

We are in a buyback blackout period & systematic funds are fully invested while retail call option open interest at one of the highest levels ever.

Some reasons to be careful....Image
HY Credit CDS is a bit jumpy today.

Credit is tightening. Image
BIZD ETF- BDC companies are breaking their lows.... Image
PSP ETF- Private Equity basket is breaking their 200 day... Image
Fed Probably needs to ease faster to relieve the credit stress now....

Watch this going forward.... Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Tyler Neville

Tyler Neville Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Tyler_Neville_

Tyler Neville Profile picture
Dec 19, 2024
Yesterday was pretty simple- By concentrating on inflation, Powell jawboned the breakeven inflation rates lower (orange line) while nominal rates slightly rose (white line) from overly dovish expectations.

Financial conditions tightened and systematic investors seem to have priced in an overly-hawkish Fed NOW because of self-reinforcing volatility targeting flows.

🧵Image
Credit Tightened a bit and HYG broke the 50 day. This will be important to watch going forward to see if the longer term bull has ended, but the economy is in way different shape and a lot of debt has been termed out.

The biggest risks in credit are geopolitical (from China imploding).Image
The front month VIX hit 27 which the 3 month VIX hit 24 signaling an inversion in the volatility structure.

This has generally been one of the best contra-indicators where equity has been an incredible buy for the last 10 years. Image
Read 6 tweets
Tyler Neville Profile picture
Jun 1, 2021
My favorite John Burbank line is "“Last price is a liar, [real] price is an equilibrium of liquidity.”

How does this relate to bitcoin and meme stocks?

A Thread..
Now, imagine there was a utopian island where everyone wanted to live.

This island was relatively unknown, but for the majority who lived there, it was extremely coveted.
Every citizen loved the island so much, there was absolutely no price at which they would sell their home.

Even in the middle of a black swan event like the coronavirus pandemic, only 14% of residents were forced to sell their homes because of external financial issues.
Read 19 tweets
Tyler Neville Profile picture
Apr 12, 2021
Are we watching a generational wealth transfer into digital assets?

Every marginal dollar from the Fed and fiscal is finding its way into digital assets now

An afternoon coffee thread...@Blockworks_ @JasonYanowitz
When ownership of any asset class is cornered by large institutions, everything trades on the margin.

When large institutions own a majority of shares, the remaining shares that are available to trade on the open market (known as the float), become constricted.
From @AnnieLowrey:

“For 9 in 10 companies on the S&P 500, their largest shareholder is one of the Big Three [Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street]. For many, the indexers control 20% or more of their shares. Index funds now control 20 to 30% of American equities, if not more.”
Read 21 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(