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Tyler Neville Profile picture
Tyler Neville
@Tyler_Neville_
Macro, Husband, Dad of 3 boys Comments are my own personal opinion; not investment advice and not attributable to my employer. Co-Host of @ForwardGuidance
Oct 10 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A little macro thread to keep on your radar.

Some divergences happening today.

2 year inflation breakevens are telling us there is something funky going on.

They are rolling over to the downside indicating deflationary pressures are building, not inflationary!!

Where are the inflationistas?!

Fed probably needs to ease faster.

Oil under $59 bucks and HY Credit spreads are widening.

We are in a buyback blackout period & systematic funds are fully invested while retail call option open interest at one of the highest levels ever.

Some reasons to be careful....Image HY Credit CDS is a bit jumpy today.

Credit is tightening. Image
Dec 19, 2024 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Yesterday was pretty simple- By concentrating on inflation, Powell jawboned the breakeven inflation rates lower (orange line) while nominal rates slightly rose (white line) from overly dovish expectations.

Financial conditions tightened and systematic investors seem to have priced in an overly-hawkish Fed NOW because of self-reinforcing volatility targeting flows.

🧵Image Credit Tightened a bit and HYG broke the 50 day. This will be important to watch going forward to see if the longer term bull has ended, but the economy is in way different shape and a lot of debt has been termed out.

The biggest risks in credit are geopolitical (from China imploding).Image
Jun 1, 2021 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
My favorite John Burbank line is "“Last price is a liar, [real] price is an equilibrium of liquidity.”

How does this relate to bitcoin and meme stocks?

A Thread.. Now, imagine there was a utopian island where everyone wanted to live.

This island was relatively unknown, but for the majority who lived there, it was extremely coveted.
Apr 12, 2021 • 21 tweets • 6 min read
Are we watching a generational wealth transfer into digital assets?

Every marginal dollar from the Fed and fiscal is finding its way into digital assets now

An afternoon coffee thread...@Blockworks_ @JasonYanowitz When ownership of any asset class is cornered by large institutions, everything trades on the margin.

When large institutions own a majority of shares, the remaining shares that are available to trade on the open market (known as the float), become constricted.