Ironically, Trump, who is often described as cynical and a man with no principles, is one of the last true peaceniks in the US. The progressives obviously don't believe in peace, they just want to punish Israel. /1
The more centrist Democrats who demand a two-state solution, I don't think they really believe this will solve the I/P conflict either. Some of them are principled liberals and they think the Palestinians have the "right" to a state no matter what they will do with it. /2
Others are just grifters, parts of the DC establishment, "peace processors" who thrive on perpetuating the I/P conflict and the entire institutonal structure that sustains it. They are utterly cynical and don't believe in peace, only in the "peace process". /3
Evangelical Christians, especially older ones, are very supportive of Israel, but they clearly see the conflict as a zero-sum game, which they want Israel to win (until the rapture or the armageddon or whatever, I'm not well versed in their theology). /4
But Trump is a true peacenik. He really wants to *solve* the conflict and thinks that a new win-win equilibrium can be achieved.
I think he's wrong, but it's fascinating that a man who is so often described as having no principles, is in fact the last naive, honest peacenik. /5
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In an interesting and surprising way, the groups in Israel who behave most consistently on the Israeli normalcy vs. Jewish exceptionalism dilemma, the most consistent ones are on the fringes of the right with little representation in its elite: soft Bibists and galuti Haredim. /1
On most cultural matters, as well in matters of war and peace, the Israeli center-left tends to advocate for "Israeli normalcy": Israel should be a normal state just like any Western liberal democracy, with state and synagogue more or less separated, with humanistic principles /2
applied both to its own minorities and, as much as possible, even to its hostile neighbors.
The Israeli right largely rejects that: Israel, they point out, is not and was never meant to be a "normal country". It's the eternal people's vehicle of self-determation. Unique. /3
As I promised: a few thoughts about the Twelve-Day War (I hope this name becomes standard), which seems to have ended.
Short summary: Israel won. This isn't "total victory", whatever that means. But it's also not a "mere tactical" victory (a highly overused expression). /1
The last few hours left a bitter taste in the mouth of many Israelis, because Trump restrained Israel right after Iran managed to murder a few more civilians in the last moment. But in the grand scheme of things, this restraining doesn't matter much. /2
Yesterday I wrote that I would've preferred a war of attrition for a few more weeks, as it would benefit Israel more than Iran. I still stand behind this assessment. It wasn't meant to be; the quick ending was probably the price Bibi paid for Fordow. /3
A lot of military analysts (also in Israel) are now warning against getting dragged into a "war of attrition" with Iran. I'll stick out my neck and say that I'm actually in favor of a war of attrition. In this thread I'll briefly explain why. /1
This war hurts Iran far more than it hurts Israel. More importantly, in Israel the trend is positive, while in Iran negative. In the thread below I predict thated Iran would ask for a ceasefire in a month. But if they're dumb enough not to, even better. /2
Israel will, for sure, pay a cost for a war of attrition. More people may die and get injured (though far fewer than over the first couple of days, partly due to increasing awareness of the importance to go to a protected place during missile attacks). Iran, if it gets lucky, /3
I don't know what the explanation of the "Israeli demographic miracle" is, but I know this: its only truly miraculous component is one of the seemingly least impressive ones. Namely, secular Jewish TFR, which isn't sky-high but merely hovers around replacement level. Thread. /1
Israel's high fertility (a TFR close to 3, completely unique in the developed world) is often discussed in vague, general terms, linking the phenomenon to religion, nationalism, and "siege mentality". It's often ignored that Israel is an archipalego of several different tribes./2
Most of these "tribes" have fertility levels that are completely unremarkable when compared to similar groups in other countries. E.g., Haredi TFR is known to be very high in Israel (6.3 lately). But it's similarly high in the US; a few years ago it was almost identical. /3
One of the emptiest, most meaningless accusations frequently launched against the Israeli government is how they are "bad at diplomacy"; that another government, which is "more adept at diplomacy", would find more partners for its policies and more support for the war. /1
This is just empty drivel. What do these people mean by "diplomacy"? One thing that's obvious is that if the government had different (much more dovish) policies, then it would find more supporters. This is surely true: if the government had agreed to a deals with both Hamas /2
and Hezbollah that would have more or less sanctified the pre-7/10/2023 situation, then yes, that would have been received mcuh more sympathetically by the Democratic Party, the EU and the Arab world.
Sure. But this has nothing to do with "diplomacy". /3
This is looking to be a blowout victory for Trump: a landslide in the EC and also a popular vote victory by several million votes, the first for a Republican in 20 years. I’ll share a few thoughts here about the election in no particular order. /1
First: this exceeds all
my expectations. I cautiously predicted a narrow Trump victory because of the Republicans’ EC advantage, but I thought it was a tossup. Apparently those who assumed that Trump is always underestimated in polls and will be even a third time, were right./2
The popular vote win is very significant in my opinion. First, it puts an end to the popular branding of Republicans in the liberal media as “the minority party”. The popular vote win gives a huge legitimacy boost to Trump & perhaps forces the Democrats to rethink their path. /3