Thread by @ZdenekVrozina

COVID didn’t end - it changed the baseline of how often people fall ill, miss work, and drop out of the labor force. A new JAMA study shows the US now lives in a permanent flu-season mode, all year round🧵

COVID-19 has created a new year-round baseline of illness - its effects persist even without major waves or restrictions, pointing to chronic impacts from ongoing infection or post-infectious conditions, including long COVID.

This new health environment means lower productivity and a greater need for worker protections such as paid sick leave, improved ventilation, and infection prevention at workplaces.

Sick leave remains 12.9% higher than before the pandemic - about 1.29 million absences per month vs 1.15 million prepandemic (+140,000 monthly).

These absences closely track SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater, not influenza or RSV - showing that illness now stays high throughout the year, similar to pre-pandemic flu season levels!

Occupational disparities persist.
Jobs with low remote-work potential +8.1% absences
Jobs with high physical proximity (eg healthcare, service work) +12.5%

Lasting exits from the labor force - workers are 13.1% more likely to leave the workforce after a health-related absence than before the pandemic.

Sum:
Even after the pandemic officially ended, health-related absences and labor force exits in the US remain significantly elevated and closely tied to ongoing SARS-CoV-2 circulation. COVID-19 has effectively reset the baseline of population health, leaving enduring economic and workforce consequences.

Dennett at al., Enduring Outcomes of COVID-19 Work Absences on the US Labor Market. jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…

It’s almost absurd how public health keeps juggling flu statistics while ignoring the far more profound social impacts of SARS-CoV-2 - which has, in the meantime, fundamentally reshaped how often people get sick and how societies function. @JakubHlavka

The next crisis won’t come from a new variant only, but from healthcare systems strained by the long tail of post-COVID illness - full hospitals, overrun clinics, and an exhausted workforce. @szupraha @ZdravkoOnline

Rarely have so few people caused such enormous economic damage as those who have been steering the public health response to COVID-19.