Honza Černý Profile picture
Oct 11 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
🧵 Reflection II: What if China isn’t trying to dominate with weapons — but with ounces? 🪙🐉

1️⃣
While the West stacks paper, China might be stacking something else — time, strategy, and real metal.

What if the negative silver premium isn’t a weakness… but an opportunity quietly handed to its own citizens?Image
2️⃣
Letting households buy physical gold and silver below world prices could be a form of silent wealth transfer.

From the system to the people.
From paper to tangible value.
It strengthens the base — not the headlines.
3️⃣
When millions of citizens hold metal, the nation holds stability.

If fiat stumbles, trust doesn’t vanish — it shifts into something real, already inside the borders.

That’s not just economics. That’s strategic psychology.
5️⃣
In a future where currencies reset,
the side with real metal, not paper promises,
sets the new rules.

Maybe China isn’t preparing for war.
Maybe it’s preparing for valuation.
#Silver #China #SGE #Macro #Reflection
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More from @honzacern1

Oct 11
🧵 Reflection: What if China’s negative silver premium means something else? 🐉

1️⃣
Lately, the Shanghai Gold Exchange shows both gold and silver trading below international prices.

Silver premium: −4%
Gold premium: −1%
It’s a reversal — for months China was paying above global prices for physical metal.Image
2️⃣
At first glance, it looks like falling demand.
But SGE isn’t a free market — it’s guided.
So what if the “discount” is deliberate?
A quiet policy choice to give domestic households a window to accumulate metals at lower prices.
3️⃣
China has done similar things before — letting citizens buy when the rest of the world was distracted.
Later, when premiums rose again, the metal was already in strong hands.
What if we’re watching the same playbook unfold, again?
Read 6 tweets
Oct 10
🧵 THREAD: India’s Silver Crunch — What It Really Means

1️⃣
Just days before Diwali, Ahmedabad bullion traders and jewellers halted silver orders.

Reason? No physical metal left.

Traders refused new bookings — not because of weak demand, but because of a real supply shortage. Image
2️⃣

India’s silver price just went vertical.
💰 MCX futures (paper): ₹146,700/kg
🪙 Physical market (GoodReturns): ₹174,000/kg

That’s an 18–19% premium for physical metal.
Let that sink in — people are paying almost $6 more per oz just to get real silver. Image
Image
3️⃣
Meanwhile, fund houses paused issuing new silver ETF units — meaning they can’t source the metal to back new shares.

Welcome to the “paper vs physical” disconnect.
Read 12 tweets
Oct 10
🧵1/
They hurled 220,082 silver futures at the screen today.
At 5,000 oz per contract, that’s ~1,100,410,000 oz of synthetic silver in one session. 🤯
Yet price still sits around $50/oz.
Paper flood. Physical shrug.

#Silver #StackerLogic #COMEX Image
2/
Deliveries: 89 contracts = 445,000 oz — that’s ~0.040% of what “traded.”
Translation: the smash was almost entirely paper; hardly any real metal changed hands.
#Silver #SilverSqueeze #HardAssets
3/
Breakdown matters:
• Total volume: 220,082 contracts
• Open interest: 169,711 (+3,325 = 16.625M oz new claims)
• Dec ’25: 198,198 contracts
 Block trades: 738
EFP: 1,882 (paper ↔ “physical” lane)
  TAS: 1,381
  Dec OI change: −1,476 → 128,281
Biggest action where liquidity lives — still mostly screen metal.
#COMEX #PreciousMetals
Read 8 tweets
Oct 10
🧵1/
They hurled ~220,000 silver futures at the screen today.
At 5,000 oz per contract, that’s ~1.10 BILLION oz of synthetic silver in a day. 🤯
Yet price is still sitting around $50/oz. Paper flood, physical shrug.
📊 (image 1 – CME “Silver Futures: Volume & OI”) Image
2/
Deliveries: 89 contracts = ~445,000 oz.
That’s ~0.04% of what “traded.”
Translation: the smash was almost entirely paper; hardly any real metal changed hands.
3/
Breakdown matters:
Total volume: ~220,082 contracts

Open interest (OI): 169,711 (+3,325)

Dec ’25 (key month): ~198,198 contracts
Block trades: 738
EFP: 1,882 (paper ↔ “physical” swap lane)
TAS: 1,381
OI change: −1,476 to 128,281

Biggest action where liquidity lives — but still mostly screen metal.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 10
🧵 Follow-up Thread: “When Refiners Stop Buying Silver…”

1️⃣
🚨 UPDATE: Physical market dysfunction is spreading.
Multiple large North American refiners have now suspended all silver purchases due to "market shutdown" conditions overnight.
2️⃣
According to one refiner:
“No large refiners are buying right now.
Spot price exceeds futures.
Refining backlog + high demand = hedge market dysfunction.”

That’s the definition of a broken paper-to-physical link.
3️⃣
What does it mean?
Spot > Futures → Backwardation

Refiners stop buying → Processing bottleneck

Hedging fails → Paper market distortion

Physical silver is now commanding a premium — real metal > paper promises.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 9
1️⃣ Silver still breathing fire.

Morning pump to ~$50.8, now a natural cooldown — but still holding strong above $49. 💪
2️⃣ The CFD vs COMEX gap stays wide — spot around $49.8, futures near $48.2.
👉 That’s a +3% premium for real metal.
If you want silver in hand, you’re paying up.
3️⃣ That’s called backwardation — and it screams tight physical market.
Someone out there wants silver now, not next month.
Read 11 tweets

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