Thread by @Tatarigami_UA

Russia’s T-90 tank production in 2024 reached around 240 units, including both new and modernized tanks. But internal planning papers analyzed by Frontelligence Insight show Moscow’s plan to lift output by 80% and launch production of a new T90 variant. 🧵Our Special Report:

2/ Our investigation began with what appeared to be a routine document: Uralvagonzavod requested “IS-445” engine RPM sensors from Zagorsk Optical-Mechanical Plant (ZOMZ) for a project listed as “Product 188M2.” This single line became the starting point of a larger discovery

3/ Digging deeper, we identified “Product 188M2” as the T-90M2, the latest variant of the T-90M (Product 188M). A careless online bio from a Russian engineer posted on Russian Scientific and Engineering Union revealed its name: “Ryvok-1", which roughly can be translated as Dash-1

4/ Further analysis of procurement records showed Uralvagonzavod ordering IS-445 sensors for T-90M, T-90M2, and BMPT “Terminator” production - covering the years 2026–2036. Only 1 sensor fits each tank, allowing us to estimate production targets (Screenshot of a technical manual)

5/ Another document proved decisive: a letter from Uralvagonzavod’s commercial director to ZOMZ outlined production plans from 2026 to 2036, detailing annual projections for new tanks, capital overhauls (CO), and modernization (M).

6/ At least 10 new T-90M2 tanks are scheduled for 2026, but production surges from 2027, peaking in 2028 with 428 T-90M and T-90M2 units, a near 80% jump from 2024. Between 2027–2029, Russia plans to produce, overhaul and modernize 1,118 T-90M and T-90M2 tanks

7/ Even if Moscow misses its target by 30%, the total still exceeds 780 modern tanks in just three years. Across the full decade, planned production of T-90M and T-90M2 models reaches at least 1,783 units.

Curiously, 2030 is not present on the production schedule at all

8/ 2029 is the last year marked “P” for production. Our team has speculated that 2030 may be reserved for factory reorganization, expansion, or modernization, which could explain the missing year

9/ One expert who consulted us suggested that the absence of new production (P) data after 2029 could reflect plans to introduce a newer tank variant around that time, making it unnecessary to reserve production capacity so far in advance.

10/ Parallel documents show that by 2036, Russia intends to overhaul or upgrade 828 tanks into the T-72B3M configuration. Peak modernization also hits in 2028, with nearly 500 T-72B3M units expected between 2027 and 2029 alone.

11/ That said, we treat T-72 figures with caution. While modernization parts are supplied at a 1:1 ratio like the T-90, some may be spares. Due to this uncertainty, we do not include T-72s in our final production estimates, keeping our confidence lower than for T-90 numbers

12/ Combining all known figures for T-90M, T-90M2, and even T-72B3M, Russia’s armored modernization target reaches 2,611 tanks from 2026–2036, in addition to vehicles already produced in 2024 and 2025. That’s enough to fully refresh its tank fleet for another large-scale war

13/ Another notable and somewhat unexpected finding was the BMPT “Terminator.” Unlike the T-90M, its production remains limited, with just 86 vehicles planned for overhaul or assembly between 2027 and 2036. The vehicle appears to be somewhat sidelined

14/ Russia’s long-term tank production plan is ambitious: from 2026–2036, Moscow aims to fully supply its operational fleet without downsizing the wartime army. Most of these tanks are scheduled for production by 2029, well ahead of the decade’s end.

15/ Thank you for reading. If you found this insightful but still have questions, check out our free full report via the link below. Paid subscribers can download the original documents to conduct their own analysis of Russia’s modernization plans:
frontelligence.substack.com/p/exclusive-in…