@russellwadey Inflation as the Price-Level Representation of Claim Dilution
"If equity exists on the macro balance sheet, then inflation is the logical and empirical representation of claim dilution — i.e., the price-level adjustment that reconciles expanding nominal claims with real output."
@russellwadey When the total stock of nominal claims expands more rapidly than real output, the purchasing power of each existing claim declines.
@russellwadey Thus, if equity exists on the balance sheet, inflation is the arithmetic reconciliation of nominal claim expansion with real output.
@russellwadey Inflation therefore emerges not from excess demand but from excess nominal claims relative to real output.
@russellwadey the price-level adjustment that reconciles expanding nominal claims with real output.
@russellwadey Bayesian Confidence Assessment — “Inflation as Claim Dilution”
@russellwadey Evidence Layers
Given supply = demand (aggregate identity), the only independent macro variable is the composition of financial claims.
If equity exists, the system must periodically dilute claims via price-level adjustment.
Inflation is therefore not contingent but structurally necessary in a balance-sheet economy.
@russellwadey Where equity exists as a residual claim, the dilution of those claims is mathematically equivalent to inflation.
“NK models require fungible capital to avoid balance sheets — "
Non-fungible capital isn’t a hypothesis that needs testing — it’s the real-world condition.
Fungible capital is the modelling assumption, and once you drop it, balance sheets become unavoidable...
.. and the NK equilibrium story disappears.
Once capital is non-fungible, such exclusion is no longer valid, and New Keynesian models lose closure without explicit balance-sheet dynamics.
When demand shifts or prices change, firms can’t just move their capital to a better use. They’re left with assets that may no longer earn enough revenue — but the debts used to build those assets don’t disappear.
From Credit Creation to Claim Enforcement: Debt Service, Labour Share, and Balance-Sheet Constraints
"Macroeconomic models that omit leverage and debt service as state variables are therefore empirically incomplete for the purposes of analysing modern inflation and distribution dynamics in high-debt economies."
Services Inflation Dynamics, Housing Pass-Through, and the Misinterpretation of Wage Inflation
"In sum, services inflation in the United States is best understood as a housing-anchored, lag-driven process in which wages play an adaptive rather than causal role."