Economic therefore Political stability
https://t.co/l8SWrVxCZf
Aug 20 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Long-Term Test: Private Credit, GDP, and Wages (AHETPI)
Wages are NOT an independent driver but are structurally constrained by the credit cycle via GDP. ...
....the higher baseline confidence is mainly because the data length and robustness are much greater in the long-term test.
Long-Term Test: Private Credit, GDP, and Wages (AHETPI)
Aug 20 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Robustness Write-Up: Private Credit, Wages, and GDP (Post-2016, VAR(1))..... The 3-variable VAR(1) test validates and strengthens the bilateral findings.
Credit is the leading force, with GDP and wages as dependent variables. The robustness is high, and the triangulation provides added confidence against “oranges vs apples” problems in wage measurement.
May 4 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
"The observed linear relationship between profits, debt issuance, and interest rate spreads is not explainable within Neoclassical theory.
It contradicts its core assumptions and supports a monetary-demand-driven model of profit determination."
Profits are Proportional too the Total Debt issued (and do not care whether Government or Private)
