@russellwadey Inflation as the Price-Level Representation of Claim Dilution
"If equity exists on the macro balance sheet, then inflation is the logical and empirical representation of claim dilution — i.e., the price-level adjustment that reconciles expanding nominal claims with real output."
@russellwadey When the total stock of nominal claims expands more rapidly than real output, the purchasing power of each existing claim declines.
@russellwadey Thus, if equity exists on the balance sheet, inflation is the arithmetic reconciliation of nominal claim expansion with real output.
@russellwadey Inflation therefore emerges not from excess demand but from excess nominal claims relative to real output.
@russellwadey the price-level adjustment that reconciles expanding nominal claims with real output.
@russellwadey Bayesian Confidence Assessment — “Inflation as Claim Dilution”
@russellwadey Evidence Layers
Given supply = demand (aggregate identity), the only independent macro variable is the composition of financial claims.
If equity exists, the system must periodically dilute claims via price-level adjustment.
Inflation is therefore not contingent but structurally necessary in a balance-sheet economy.
@russellwadey Where equity exists as a residual claim, the dilution of those claims is mathematically equivalent to inflation.
@russellwadey From Ex-Post Income Identity to Ex-Ante Balance-Sheet Dynamics
The income-expenditure identity is descriptive; it records how GDP is distributed.
The balance-sheet identity is causal; it explains how GDP is created.
@russellwadey The identity therefore tells us how income was spent, not why it changed.
@russellwadey Thus, to generate additional spending in aggregate, one sector must expand its balance sheet.
This converts the income-expenditure framework into a flow-of-funds mechanism:
Policy Regimes Are Balance-Sheet States, Not Discretionary Switches
“Using a Markov-switching reaction function and logit bridge, we show that the probability of an ‘active’ Fed regime rises systematically with total-debt-to-GDP (Ω). Policy regime is not independent; it’s a balance-sheet state.”
Why the GDP–FX Triangle Shows U.S. Output Is Energy-Constrained: A New Keynesian Restatement
"Energy throughput (Ω = E·η) is the real state variable NK models have been estimating implicitly as “productivity.”
The GDP–FX triangle reveals its existence and shows that even the United States cannot be modeled outside that global energy constraint."
Empirically, “productivity” AtA_tAt is correlated one-for-one with energy throughput and efficiency.
Inflation is now a balance between nominal demand and energy-bounded real supply — not between demand and an abstract productivity trend.
Energy as the Global Unit of Account and the Real Denominator
— what we can actually produce — is limited by the quantity and efficiency of energy throughput.
You cannot “print” more real output without mobilizing more usable energy or improving efficiency
The two triangles — one nominal (FX) and one real (GDP) — close with less than 0.05% error, which means the world’s nominal exchange structure and real output structure are internally consistent.
This implies that currencies represent proportional claims on global output, not arbitrary relative prices.
Extending Closure to the Real Economy: World GDP ≈ Energy Throughput
GDP–FX Triangle: Closure Test with Cointegration Evidence
“GDP–FX cointegrates with exchange rates at rank=1, has stable error-correction terms, and remains robust under break/out-of-sample tests. The triangle closure demonstrates system consistency. UIP fails everywhere, GDP–FX fits everywhere.”
👉 All three legs reject UIP simultaneously. UIP not only fails, it inverts.
Adjustment coefficients significant (p < 0.05), showing that FX adjusts back to equity-share fundamentals after deviations.
The GDP-FX Parity Triangle: Evidence That Exchange Rates Track Relative Output Capacity
........"exchange rates track relative output capacity. Far from being “free-floating” expectations around interest-rate differentials, currencies behave as shares of global production"
....currencies reflect shares of global output capacity.