Thread by @honzacern1

🚨 LONDON SQUEEZE: $50+ silver, spot > futures, shorts bleeding. Physical rules the game. #SilverSqueeze

1/ London just flipped the board. Spot in London trades above NY futures, liquidity is vanishing, and shorts are paying eye-watering borrow to survive the roll. This is not a drill.

2/ Overnight borrowing costs have spiked to triple-digit annualized in the tightest moments. That’s what true scarcity smells like: pay up or get out.

3/ Traders are literally booking transatlantic cargo slots. Estimated 15–30 million oz are being lined up to fly/sail from New York to London to capture the premium. Physical arbitrage in real time.

4/ “But there’s plenty on COMEX!” — Sure, ~526 moz are sitting there… on paper until they’re moved, cleared, insured, and accepted. Logistics, brands, and time matter. Meanwhile, London screams.

5/ Context: LBMA London vault silver is 24,581 tonnes (~790 moz) as of end-September 2025 — materially below the 2020–2021 highs. The “float” that actually trades is a fraction of total stocks.

6/ Demand shock on the other side: India’s imports nearly doubled in September despite record prices. That’s gasoline on a physical fire.

7/ It’s so tight in India that major silver ETF platforms paused new lump-sum inflows to protect investors from extreme premiums. When retail structures strain, you know the pipes are dry.

8/ Price action: silver has ripped to all-time/high-water marks in this move, riding the hard-asset bid. The message is simple: paper can wiggle, but ounces don’t lie.

9/ This is what a real squeeze looks like:
– Spot > futures (London premium)
– Borrow explodes
– Cargo doors open
– Paper scrambles to find metal

10/ If you’re a stacker: congrats on your patience. If you’re new: make a simple plan (budget → dealer → brand → storage). Don’t chase noise; accumulate conviction.

11/ “Will scrap save the day?” Not overnight. Recycling lags price and takes time to hit the market. Logistics are slow; psychology is fast.

12/ Watch these signals:
– London–NY spread (does it compress?)
– LBMA vault data (monthly drift)
– COMEX registered outflows to London (weekly tells)
– ETP inventory changes (are bars moving?)

13/ Shorts can delay the inevitable with basis tricks. They can’t print bars. When borrow eats your P&L and delivery is a question mark, risk managers start making phone calls.

14/ Volatility will be savage. Spreads can snap back if metal arrives… or they can widen if it doesn’t. Either way, this phase is where paper tourists get rinsed and stackers get validated.

15/ Remember 1980? Different era, same lesson: attempts to control price fail when physical reality refuses to cooperate. This time, industry demand + sovereign fear + retail conviction = a tougher opponent.

16/ Keep it simple: Ounces over opinions. Tubes over tweets. Bars over bravado. Audit your stack, secure storage, keep receipts, and ignore the dopamine rollercoaster.

17/ Not financial advice. Just a stacker’s reminder: the market is finally speaking your language — metal.
#Silver #StackerLogic #PhysicalOverPaper

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