Thread by @SamRamani2

A ceasefire has taken hold in Gaza and Israeli hostages are about to be released

Here's an overview of what will likely come next /THREAD

The ceasefire was driven by two key factors

The first was that Hamas saw no chance of outlasting Israel's military resolve and surviving as a governing power in the pre-2023 form

The second was that Israel also realized the complete annhiliation of Hamas was unachievable /1

Pressure on Israel from the US was also mounting

During my recent trip to Washington, Democrats framed Israel's war as a Netanyahu regime survival mission and Republicans were quizzical about whether Israel was trading short-term wins for long-term insecurity /2

While Biden chose to chide Netanyahu in private and use surrogates like Jake Sullivan to provide more frontal critiques, Trump leveraged his close personal ties with Netanyahu to make a deal

Trump's tenacity and public pressure for peace won out without antagonizing Israel /3

Netanyahu is facing extreme internal pressure from the far-right of his coalition to not end the Gaza War

Ben Gvir and Smotrich are vetoing the ceasefire. Netanyahu's warnings about the war's potential reignition are lip service to that bloc but the ceasefire should hold /4

The prospects for long-term peace are much more ambivalent

The US vs. EU/Arab state divide on Palestinian state recognition, the destroyed credibility of the UN as a broker and proven inefficacy of reconstruction aid in leading to peace are challenges /5

Hamas and PIJ will have the chance to appeal to Palestinian grievances and potentially rearm if the core issues are not addressed

The big question is funding: Iran is depleted, Saudi Arabia wants no part, Qatar has been burnt by the pre-2023 UN/Israel-approved aid scheme /6

The most significant thing to remember is that the Gaza War is not just an Israeli-Palestinian conflict

The October 7 events and the regionalization of the war to Iran, Lebanon and Yemen reflected a highly dysfunctional regional system /7

From 2020-23, paper ententes were falsely equated will full-scale normalizations or even alignments

Israel's revanchist ambitions in Palestine and Iran's desire to end the Abraham Accords both lay outside extant regional frameworks. This exclusion fuelled war /8

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have disparate views of Gaza's post-war future, especially regarding the role of Hamas and even the long-term staying power of the PA

Syria is marred with ethnic violence and the Houthis are operating in an unstable Yemeni context /9

The Middle East regional system might see a cooling of heads and tensions for the time being but will not coalesce into a broader peace landscape

The illusion of stability that was cited by Jake Sullivan in the 2023 Foreign Affairs is remote /END