Thread 🧵 | David Jensen: The “London Promissory Note Market”
1️⃣
Mining executive & metals analyst David Jensen (@JensenStrategic) says it plainly:
The LBMA isn’t a bullion market — it’s a promissory note factory.
Unallocated paper claims there are orders of magnitude larger than COMEX futures.
#Silver #Gold #LBMA
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LBMA’s spot market trades over 300 million oz of silver daily, equal to 3 billion oz turnover —
in a world that mines ~850M oz per year.
That’s not “liquidity.”
That’s leverage on promises.
Meanwhile, COMEX averages just 100–200k contracts daily (~0.5–1B oz).
3️⃣
For gold, London holds ~385M oz in paper claims vs 280M oz in vaults, much of it locked in ETFs or leases.
Translation: the “physical” market is a spreadsheet illusion.
COMEX may set headlines,
but London sets the price — on paper.
4️⃣
Jensen calls it the “London Promissory Note Market Association.”
And he’s right —
these unallocated IOUs can be created without limit, unlike real bullion.
Daily turnover > physical supply =
Opacity. Leverage. Eventual shortage.
#SilverSqueeze #PhysicalOverPaper
5️⃣
When vault drawdowns hit (as in 2024–2025),
banks rush to source metal via Exchange for Physical (EFP) —sending 3–5M oz daily from COMEX to London.
That’s not “arbitrage.”
That’s a lifeline.
6️⃣
In Jensen’s words:
“London’s market is existential. If physical demand spikes, default is inevitable.”
The warning’s clear:
the LBMA’s paper ocean hides a physical puddle.
And the tide is going out. 🌊
#LBMA #COMEX #Silver #Gold #StackerLogic
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🚨 LONDON SQUEEZE: $50+ silver, spot > futures, shorts bleeding. Physical rules the game. #SilverSqueeze
1/ London just flipped the board. Spot in London trades above NY futures, liquidity is vanishing, and shorts are paying eye-watering borrow to survive the roll. This is not a drill.
2/ Overnight borrowing costs have spiked to triple-digit annualized in the tightest moments. That’s what true scarcity smells like: pay up or get out.
3/ Traders are literally booking transatlantic cargo slots. Estimated 15–30 million oz are being lined up to fly/sail from New York to London to capture the premium. Physical arbitrage in real time.
🧵 Reflection: What if China’s negative silver premium means something else? 🐉
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Lately, the Shanghai Gold Exchange shows both gold and silver trading below international prices.
Silver premium: −4%
Gold premium: −1%
It’s a reversal — for months China was paying above global prices for physical metal.
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At first glance, it looks like falling demand.
But SGE isn’t a free market — it’s guided.
So what if the “discount” is deliberate?
A quiet policy choice to give domestic households a window to accumulate metals at lower prices.
3️⃣
China has done similar things before — letting citizens buy when the rest of the world was distracted.
Later, when premiums rose again, the metal was already in strong hands.
What if we’re watching the same playbook unfold, again?
🧵1/
They hurled 220,082 silver futures at the screen today.
At 5,000 oz per contract, that’s ~1,100,410,000 oz of synthetic silver in one session. 🤯
Yet price still sits around $50/oz.
Paper flood. Physical shrug.
#Silver #StackerLogic #COMEX
2/ Deliveries: 89 contracts = 445,000 oz — that’s ~0.040% of what “traded.”
Translation: the smash was almost entirely paper; hardly any real metal changed hands.
#Silver #SilverSqueeze #HardAssets
3/ Breakdown matters:
• Total volume: 220,082 contracts
• Open interest: 169,711 (+3,325 = 16.625M oz new claims)
• Dec ’25: 198,198 contracts
Block trades: 738
EFP: 1,882 (paper ↔ “physical” lane)
TAS: 1,381
Dec OI change: −1,476 → 128,281
Biggest action where liquidity lives — still mostly screen metal.
#COMEX #PreciousMetals
🧵1/
They hurled ~220,000 silver futures at the screen today.
At 5,000 oz per contract, that’s ~1.10 BILLION oz of synthetic silver in a day. 🤯
Yet price is still sitting around $50/oz. Paper flood, physical shrug.
📊 (image 1 – CME “Silver Futures: Volume & OI”)
2/ Deliveries: 89 contracts = ~445,000 oz.
That’s ~0.04% of what “traded.”
Translation: the smash was almost entirely paper; hardly any real metal changed hands.
3/ Breakdown matters:
Total volume: ~220,082 contracts
Open interest (OI): 169,711 (+3,325)
Dec ’25 (key month): ~198,198 contracts
Block trades: 738
EFP: 1,882 (paper ↔ “physical” swap lane)
TAS: 1,381
OI change: −1,476 to 128,281
Biggest action where liquidity lives — but still mostly screen metal.