Honza Černý Profile picture
Oct 11 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Thread 🧵 | David Jensen: The “London Promissory Note Market”

1️⃣
Mining executive & metals analyst David Jensen (@JensenStrategic) says it plainly:

The LBMA isn’t a bullion market — it’s a promissory note factory.

Unallocated paper claims there are orders of magnitude larger than COMEX futures.
#Silver #Gold #LBMA
2️⃣
LBMA’s spot market trades over 300 million oz of silver daily, equal to 3 billion oz turnover —
in a world that mines ~850M oz per year.

That’s not “liquidity.”
That’s leverage on promises.

Meanwhile, COMEX averages just 100–200k contracts daily (~0.5–1B oz).
3️⃣

For gold, London holds ~385M oz in paper claims vs 280M oz in vaults, much of it locked in ETFs or leases.
Translation: the “physical” market is a spreadsheet illusion.
COMEX may set headlines,
but London sets the price — on paper.
4️⃣
Jensen calls it the “London Promissory Note Market Association.”
And he’s right —
these unallocated IOUs can be created without limit, unlike real bullion.
Daily turnover > physical supply =
Opacity. Leverage. Eventual shortage.
#SilverSqueeze #PhysicalOverPaper
5️⃣

When vault drawdowns hit (as in 2024–2025),
banks rush to source metal via Exchange for Physical (EFP) —sending 3–5M oz daily from COMEX to London.

That’s not “arbitrage.”
That’s a lifeline.
6️⃣
In Jensen’s words:

“London’s market is existential. If physical demand spikes, default is inevitable.”

The warning’s clear:

the LBMA’s paper ocean hides a physical puddle.
And the tide is going out. 🌊

#LBMA #COMEX #Silver #Gold #StackerLogic
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More from @honzacern1

Oct 11
🚨 LONDON SQUEEZE: $50+ silver, spot > futures, shorts bleeding. Physical rules the game. #SilverSqueeze

1/ London just flipped the board. Spot in London trades above NY futures, liquidity is vanishing, and shorts are paying eye-watering borrow to survive the roll. This is not a drill.Image
2/ Overnight borrowing costs have spiked to triple-digit annualized in the tightest moments. That’s what true scarcity smells like: pay up or get out.
3/ Traders are literally booking transatlantic cargo slots. Estimated 15–30 million oz are being lined up to fly/sail from New York to London to capture the premium. Physical arbitrage in real time.
Read 18 tweets
Oct 11
🧵 Reflection II: What if China isn’t trying to dominate with weapons — but with ounces? 🪙🐉

1️⃣
While the West stacks paper, China might be stacking something else — time, strategy, and real metal.

What if the negative silver premium isn’t a weakness… but an opportunity quietly handed to its own citizens?Image
2️⃣
Letting households buy physical gold and silver below world prices could be a form of silent wealth transfer.

From the system to the people.
From paper to tangible value.
It strengthens the base — not the headlines.
3️⃣
When millions of citizens hold metal, the nation holds stability.

If fiat stumbles, trust doesn’t vanish — it shifts into something real, already inside the borders.

That’s not just economics. That’s strategic psychology.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 11
🧵 Reflection: What if China’s negative silver premium means something else? 🐉

1️⃣
Lately, the Shanghai Gold Exchange shows both gold and silver trading below international prices.

Silver premium: −4%
Gold premium: −1%
It’s a reversal — for months China was paying above global prices for physical metal.Image
2️⃣
At first glance, it looks like falling demand.
But SGE isn’t a free market — it’s guided.
So what if the “discount” is deliberate?
A quiet policy choice to give domestic households a window to accumulate metals at lower prices.
3️⃣
China has done similar things before — letting citizens buy when the rest of the world was distracted.
Later, when premiums rose again, the metal was already in strong hands.
What if we’re watching the same playbook unfold, again?
Read 6 tweets
Oct 10
🧵 THREAD: India’s Silver Crunch — What It Really Means

1️⃣
Just days before Diwali, Ahmedabad bullion traders and jewellers halted silver orders.

Reason? No physical metal left.

Traders refused new bookings — not because of weak demand, but because of a real supply shortage. Image
2️⃣

India’s silver price just went vertical.
💰 MCX futures (paper): ₹146,700/kg
🪙 Physical market (GoodReturns): ₹174,000/kg

That’s an 18–19% premium for physical metal.
Let that sink in — people are paying almost $6 more per oz just to get real silver. Image
Image
3️⃣
Meanwhile, fund houses paused issuing new silver ETF units — meaning they can’t source the metal to back new shares.

Welcome to the “paper vs physical” disconnect.
Read 12 tweets
Oct 10
🧵1/
They hurled 220,082 silver futures at the screen today.
At 5,000 oz per contract, that’s ~1,100,410,000 oz of synthetic silver in one session. 🤯
Yet price still sits around $50/oz.
Paper flood. Physical shrug.

#Silver #StackerLogic #COMEX Image
2/
Deliveries: 89 contracts = 445,000 oz — that’s ~0.040% of what “traded.”
Translation: the smash was almost entirely paper; hardly any real metal changed hands.
#Silver #SilverSqueeze #HardAssets
3/
Breakdown matters:
• Total volume: 220,082 contracts
• Open interest: 169,711 (+3,325 = 16.625M oz new claims)
• Dec ’25: 198,198 contracts
 Block trades: 738
EFP: 1,882 (paper ↔ “physical” lane)
  TAS: 1,381
  Dec OI change: −1,476 → 128,281
Biggest action where liquidity lives — still mostly screen metal.
#COMEX #PreciousMetals
Read 8 tweets
Oct 10
🧵1/
They hurled ~220,000 silver futures at the screen today.
At 5,000 oz per contract, that’s ~1.10 BILLION oz of synthetic silver in a day. 🤯
Yet price is still sitting around $50/oz. Paper flood, physical shrug.
📊 (image 1 – CME “Silver Futures: Volume & OI”) Image
2/
Deliveries: 89 contracts = ~445,000 oz.
That’s ~0.04% of what “traded.”
Translation: the smash was almost entirely paper; hardly any real metal changed hands.
3/
Breakdown matters:
Total volume: ~220,082 contracts

Open interest (OI): 169,711 (+3,325)

Dec ’25 (key month): ~198,198 contracts
Block trades: 738
EFP: 1,882 (paper ↔ “physical” swap lane)
TAS: 1,381
OI change: −1,476 to 128,281

Biggest action where liquidity lives — but still mostly screen metal.
Read 6 tweets

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