Putin is clearly escalating vis-a-vis Europe.
This is likely in response to the complete failure to achieve any strategic objectives during this summer’s offensive.
The war is shifting to a new phase.🧵
This is likely in response to the complete failure to achieve any strategic objectives during this summer’s offensive.
The war is shifting to a new phase.🧵
https://twitter.com/defmon3/status/1977111210198974565
Putin probably had high hopes of achieving significant successes in the Donbas this summer on the back of the retaking of most of Kursk in the spring and perceived weakness in Ukrainian forces with the running out of Congressionally authorized US weapons aid.
Having captured some territory in the Donbas but no strategic positions this summer (at yet again, a huge cost in lives), Putin is likely looking for scapegoats and the easy and usual one is Europe and its ongoing financial and military support—now also via purchases from the US.
Putin is lashing out of both frustration at lack of progress on the battlefield, deterioration in Russia’s economic situation due to prolonged war, low price of oil and Ukrainian deep strikes, and the failure to bring Trump to his side in Alaska.
Putin clearly doesn’t want to provoke Trump - and continues to say nothing but positive things about POTUS and even refuses to explicitly criticize him for considering the supply of Tomahawks to Ukraine. But he perceives it as easy and cost-free to lash out at the Europeans.
Putin is not looking for a war with NATO but he will likely continue to raise the stakes for Europe with gray zone escalations & covert actions to try to deter Europe from escalating further by seizing Russia’s sovereign assets in Belgium or supply of weapons systems like Taurus.
Putin’s full scale war on Ukraine is now shifting to a new phase. In about 200 days it will exceed the length of World War I and the economic and military (recruitment of new volunteers in getting harder and costlier by the day) challenges for Russia are getting more considerable
It’s going to be hard for Putin to sustain this war for another 18 months at this level of intensity without another politically unpopular mobilization and economic austerity measures. As a result, I think he will he increasingly more desperate to “escalate to deescalate.”
And while Putin doesn’t want and fears a conflict with NATO, miscalculation and misreading of European resolve is possible, making the situation increasingly more dangerous and less stable.
Putin’s clear fear of Trump siding strongly with Europe and Ukraine is going to be the main constraining factor on his actions.
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