Thread by @Nassreddin2002

🇳🇱🗳️Today, the Dutch election campaign really starts!

RTL as always organises the 1st tv debate which often triggers new polling swings

🧵Here's a thread on what to watch out for, why PVV is still leading, whether a govt is possible or are we headed for new elections next year?

Current polling situation:

-PVV remains the largest party: ~21%, tho down compared to 2023

-GL/PvdA fails to grow above 2023 result

-CDA is headed for a revival, but growth has stopped

-VVD is headed for record low

-D66 and JA21 are making gains lately

-NSC is dead: 0 seats

So why is PVV still leading?

Two reasons:

1. Immigration remains an important issue for 35-40% of Dutch voters. 1/2 of these voters say PVV has the best policies for it. Immigration's importance increased in prominence again since PVV quit the govt in June over this issue.

2. A vote for PVV is considered as the guarantee to keep progressive GL/PvdA, D66 out of power. They're by far the largest on the right. Right-wing voters distrust VVD/CDA. So PVV remains for now + Some voters think VVD could work with PVV again if PVV gets a huge victory again.

Wilders' position has become more interesting:

Wilders has suspended his campaign activities due to a prevented terrorist attack by 3 Belgian men

But now he also refuses to partake in tv debates. Will this benefit him or eventually hurt him at the end?

https://x.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1976623092568100878

GL/PvdA remains stuck around their 2023 result for 2 yrs now (~16%)

Partially bcs the merger process takes a long time (only finalised in June '26) which consumed energy and created an image of internal disunity. Especially when pro-🇮🇱 ppl quit as GL/PvdA became stauncher pro-🇵🇸

Another problem, just as 2 years ago: leader Frans Timmermans

Timmermans has been in national politics since 1998, was Vice President of the EU Commission and gives off 'old political elite' vibes. His popularity rating is at 4.5/10; more right-leaning voters really despise him.

GL/PvdA tries to focus on issues like poverty, housing and climate on which the party has a better position among voters.

And in the final campaign days, the merging parties hope to attract strategic voters from smaller progressive parties so GL/PvdA becomes the largest party.

Just notice you almost can't find Timmermans on GL/PvdA's poster

BTW: without the merger, both PvdA and GL would've been smaller apart and the election campaign would've been more dominated by right-wing voices. As tv debates only tend to include the largest 3-4 parties.

CDA has kinda an inverted position of GL/PvdA

Leader Henri Bontenbal is the most popular party leader with a rating of 6.5/10. Bontenbal is relatively new in politics (MP since 2021) and is not tainted by CDA's past with almost permanent participation in government pre-2023

Bontenbal presents himself as a return to respectful politics in the centre after years of chaos, taking voters mostly from NSC/VVD. CDA got a record low of 3% in 2023, but now has ~15%

But Bontenbal is kinda untested + CDA has a weak issue ownership position -> maybe vulnerable

From the right: PVV, JA21 and VVD warn that CDA could form a centre-left govt with GL/PvdA, D66 and other smaller left-leaning parties

From the left: warnings that CDA hasn't changed that much politically after all and is still right-leaning on economy and will go for austerity

Meanwhile VVD is declining to record lows. For 15 years, they've dominated Dutch politics, 14 of which with Rutte as PM

While Rutte managed to hide the erosion, during these years, VVD's credibility among right-leaning has collapsed. And now with Rutte gone, VVD finally feels it

Rutte governed for 12 yrs with progressive PvdA, D66 and CU in centrist governments

VVD's conservative base became more disillusioned with voter defections to FvD/BBB (both short-lived) and finally PVV + now also JA21

Hence Rutte's successor Yesilgöz moved VVD to the right

VVD even opted to govern with PVV u-turning on Rutte's decade long rejection to work with Wilders' party

However the former VVD-voters still don't trust the party and haven't come back

Instead, more centrist-leaning voters have become uncomfortable and now leave VVD for CDA/D66

VVD is essentially squeezed

It moves further right politically (eg. labelling Antifa as terrorism) -> centrist voters mad and a VVD senator even quit

Yet it also returned to its veto against a govt with Wilders when PVV let the govt collapse; no trust among conservative voters

NSC which has collapsed from 21% in the polls October 2023, 13% by election day and now 0% in polls, has the same problem

Omtzigt's success was attracting voters from the left/centre and right due to admiration for discovering the childcare benefit scandal & anti-Rutte populism

Then NSC was faced with PVV's victory in 2023. Omtzigt couldn't choose: he first ruled out PVV, then joined negotiations with PVV, he broke them off, returned and formed govt with PVV while still being uneasy about it

Centrists have gone to CDA, right-leaning voters to JA21/PVV

Earlier this year, Omtzigt finally quit politics due to having a burn out. And with his departure from politics, NSC has collapsed to 0 seats in the polls

NSC tried to regenerate itself by quitting the govt over a lack of sanctions against Israel in August. But with no effect

Then we get to two interesting parties that have climbed in the polls: D66 and JA21

D66 -> leader Rob Jetten is slightly more popular than Timmermans (5.2/10) and is less polarising. He's participating in a popular game show this month which has made him more well-known.

D66 positions itself similar to CDA, claiming to be the party that wants to stop polarisation and return to centrism, portraying GL/PvdA as more polarising.

D66 has also moved a bit to the right on migration and embraces 'patriotism' with the aim of attracting voters from VVD.

JA21 -> a message with two components that resonates with right-leaning voters:

1. Clearly anti-migration and small govt, won't compromise as much as VVD (attracts VVD-voters)

2. Will not walk away from government and truly deliver anti-migration policies (attracts PVV-voters)

Then you might ask: what about the smaller parties?

Well bad news for them. As there are so many parties in the Netherlands, media tend to focus on the bigger 4-6 parties during campaign periods

Thus smaller parties often lose steam and get squeezed as election day comes closer

Now big question: what governments are possible?

As VVD claims to rule out PVV...

Option 1: Centrist (GL/PvdA, CDA, VVD, D66, maybe CU/Volt)

This would've worked 10 yrs ago. But now with a much more right-wing VVD headed for a big loss, this is gonna be extremely difficult.

Option 2: GL/PvdA+CDA+D66 minority supported by small left-leaning parties; small majority in both Houses of Parliament; very fragile; very risky for CDA

Option 3: VVD/CDA u-turn and work with PVV; CDA won't (trauma from 2010-12 cooperation with PVV which caused CDA's collapse)

Option 4: a coalition of CDA+D66+VVD+JA21+BBB miraculously gets a majority; this would be far too right-wing for D66, especially on climate-related issues and EU

Option 5 and increasingly likely: after months of failed negotiations -> snap elections next year 🙃💀

The main problem:

The most common govt in modern history consists of CDA/VVD, who governed with the left or populist-right when necessary

Now the centre-right - despite CDA’s revival - is headed for a record low, the populist right is stronger than ever

https://x.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1691481074843459584

The centre-right tries to move further to the right which makes it increasingly difficult to govern with the left.

Meanwhile all three attempts of the centre-right governing with the populist right (2002, 2010-12 and 2024-25) have ended up in political chaos and snap election.

This structural development is why forming a Dutch govt has taken almost a year after the last 3 elections. And it’s also why govts collapse so often.

Add political scandals, such as the childcare benefit scandal and its aftermath, which have further fuelled political distrust.

So yeah, I’m not optimistic about the state of Dutch politics and whether a stable govt can be found. This is the 3rd time in 5 years as correspondent of @EuropeElects that I’m covering a Dutch govt collapse and general election

And I fear a fourth one will follow soon. 🥲

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