Joni Askola Profile picture
Oct 12, 2025 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/6 Russia’s war on Ukraine may have entered its final stage.

However, this stage could be long, brutal, and extremely costly Image
2/6 For the first time in nearly 4 years of full-scale war, long-range strikes are shaping the war’s future more than movements on the front lines Image
3/6 Russia has bombarded Ukraine since day one.

Ukraine has been striking back for over a year.

Now, both sides produce so many drones and missiles that strike campaigns may matter more than territorial control Image
4/6 Ukraine targets refineries, military infrastructure, and Russia’s power grid.

Russia hits everything, including civilians.

Destruction will escalate. Ukraine urgently needs more air defense Image
5/6 Ukraine’s strategy is to bring the war to Russia and make it too costly to continue.

With US intel boosting precision, this approach is working.

It may take time, but it is the only way to accelerate the end Image
6/6 Europe must step up its aid, especially for air defense and long-range strike systems.

Ukraine needs funding, technology, and scale.

This phase will decide the war’s future and how soon it ends Image

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More from @joni_askola

Feb 10
1/12 EU regulation is like kryptonite to our enemies🧵 Image
2/12 There is a reason why Putin, Musk, Trump, Vance, Thiel, and Xi all spend fortunes to attack Brussels.

They do not hate the EU because it fails.

They hate it because of its potential.

Our unity is their nightmare Image
3/12 Think about the strategy. Why do they fund anti-EU movements?

Because they can bully Italy. They can buy Hungary. They can pressure France.

But they cannot bully a unified bloc of 450 million people.

When we stand together, their leverage evaporates Image
Read 12 tweets
Feb 2
1/11 The war is far from over, but Ukraine is still winning.

Here is how we can make sure that it defeats Russia 🧵 Image
2/11 Russia’s 2022 invasion is a genocide.

They use genocidal rhetoric to justify erasing Ukraine's identity. They kidnap children and commit daily war crimes to punish civilians for simply refusing to be Russian.

This is a systematic attempt to destroy a nation Image
3/11 The human cost is massive.

In Mariupol, the death toll in 3 months potentially exceeded the total deaths in Gaza throughout the entire war, despite a much smaller population.

People underestimate this scale and don't see that Russia is committing genocide in Europe Image
Read 11 tweets
Jan 23
1/12 “Value-Based Realism” was a major theme at Davos.

It is being sold by Stubb and Carney as a smart, pragmatic path for the West, but I think it is a strategic trap.

Here is why this new realism might actually lead to managed decline 🧵 Image
2/12 The concept is the latest intellectual fashion.

@alexstubb and @MarkJCarney are pushing it as the ultimate manual for "middle powers" like Canada, the UK, and the EU.

It sounds sophisticated to be principled yet pragmatic, but we need to look a bit closer Image
3/12 The logic is simple: stop waiting for a perfect world and deal with the brutal one we have.

It is an honest description of how we behave right now, post-Biden.

That is exactly the problem.

It takes our current failure of will and rebrands it as a high-level strategy Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 21
1/5 Europe needs a reality check.

The strategies that worked during Trump's first term are useless now.

We tried playing nice, and it failed.

It is high time to stop the appeasement and start facing reality Image
2/5 The time for Europeans to appease Trump is over.

We have spent the last year watching our tactics from "Trump 1" fail miserably in "Trump 2."

Flattery and silence do not work anymore.

He sees them as weakness, not respect Image
3/5 Trump lives in a bubble of total confirmation.

He is surrounded by sycophants who are too afraid to tell him the truth or challenge his worst impulses.

Because no one in his inner circle dares to confront him, he believes he can bully Europe without consequence Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 20
1/8 Europe is sleepwalking into a forever war because we are too afraid to actually win.

We need to stop managing the conflict and start ending it.

Here is how 🧵 Image
2/8 Europe has the power to end the war in Ukraine much faster but it requires a total shift in strategy.

We need to stop managing the conflict and start winning it.

Here is the roadmap to force a Russian collapse👇 Image
3/8 We must help Ukraine scale its domestic defense industry in every possible way.

This means direct funding and technical advice.

A Ukraine that can build its own weapons is a Ukraine that can sustain the fight without relying solely on foreign logistics Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 15
1/7 Trump is no isolationist:

He is a show interventionist, a cowardly form of imperialist interventionism that is also meant to entertain the world Image
2/7 Trump's entire campaign was built on the lie that he would end wars and stop regime change operations.

It has been a year since he promised to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and the fighting continues Image
3/7 While he appointed isolationists to his administration, his actions tell a different story.

He claims to have ended eight wars but he hasn't ended any. In reality it looks more likely that he will start eight new ones before his term is over Image
Read 7 tweets

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