Joni Askola Profile picture
Oct 12 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/6 Russia’s war on Ukraine may have entered its final stage.

However, this stage could be long, brutal, and extremely costly Image
2/6 For the first time in nearly 4 years of full-scale war, long-range strikes are shaping the war’s future more than movements on the front lines Image
3/6 Russia has bombarded Ukraine since day one.

Ukraine has been striking back for over a year.

Now, both sides produce so many drones and missiles that strike campaigns may matter more than territorial control Image
4/6 Ukraine targets refineries, military infrastructure, and Russia’s power grid.

Russia hits everything, including civilians.

Destruction will escalate. Ukraine urgently needs more air defense Image
5/6 Ukraine’s strategy is to bring the war to Russia and make it too costly to continue.

With US intel boosting precision, this approach is working.

It may take time, but it is the only way to accelerate the end Image
6/6 Europe must step up its aid, especially for air defense and long-range strike systems.

Ukraine needs funding, technology, and scale.

This phase will decide the war’s future and how soon it ends Image

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More from @joni_askola

Oct 10
1/7 A rough winter is coming to Ukraine.

Russia will strike harder than ever, with more drones and missiles than in previous years.

Europe has a duty to act now to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses.

There is no time to waste Image
2/7 We need to place urgent orders for more SAMP/T, IRIS-T, and other effective systems.

That includes Patriot batteries, while Trump still allows them to be sold.

Ukraine needs them.

There is no excuse not to act Image
3/7 France and Italy produce the SAMP/T, the only European system with range comparable to the Patriot.

Ukraine already operates two batteries but likely lacks interceptors.

Production levels are still far too low Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 9
1/5 The war in Ukraine seems to be entering a new phase.

Frontline movements may soon matter less to the war’s future than long-range strikes.

A race to force the other side to give up has begun.

Russia started long ago. Ukraine is finally catching up Image
2/5 Russia understands the stakes. Its leadership will do everything it can to cripple Ukraine’s drone and missile production.

General Gerasimov has openly said this is now a priority.

Ukraine likely has similar plans for Russia’s production Image
3/5 Ukraine’s drone and missile production is its strongest card to accelerate the end of the war.

Let’s hope it is wisely organized: underground, abroad, and/or in hardened facilities Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 9
1/5 If Putin's goal was to get as many Russians killed as possible without achieving anything, then he has succeeded.

This war is a disaster. The numbers speak for themselves Image
2/5 @KilledInUkraine has confirmed 7,000 dead Russian officers.

These are just the ones identified through public obituaries and graves. The real number is even higher.

And officers are supposed to survive more than the soldiers they lead Image
3/5 Officers are a small minority of the army.

They are better trained, more valuable, and usually kept out of the riskiest roles.

When thousands of them die, it’s not just tragic for Russia. It’s a sign of total dysfunction Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 8
1/7 Ukraine: Hope is slowly coming back.

After years of brutal war, 2025 has brought a renewed sense of possibility for Ukraine and its supporters.

The war remains devastating, but recent developments are starting to shift the narrative and reshape international perceptions Image
2/7 Ukraine still faces serious challenges: mobilization issues, slow command reforms, hesitation from allies, and internal political battles.

Russia keeps advancing slowly and at extremely high cost.

Many supporters lost hope, and there were valid reasons to worry Image
3/7 Trump’s election raised doubts about Western support.

Zelensky and European leaders managed to limit the damage.

Ukraine can still buy US weapons, and Trump has failed to force a bad deal with Moscow Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 8
1/7 Several ongoing and upcoming developments are turning out to be very unfavorable for Russia Image
2/7 Ukraine has finally started producing decent quantities of its own cruise missiles.

It has already scaled up strike drone production and is developing ballistic missiles.

Russia’s rear is no longer safe. The pressure is growing Image
3/7 At the same time, Europe is moving closer to unlocking frozen Russian assets for Ukraine.

If a legal solution is found, it could fund Ukraine’s war effort for months and send a clear message to Moscow: you will not outlast Ukraine Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 5
1/5 China is an enemy of Europe, and only Europeans are stupid enough not to see it.

China sees itself as being in a proxy war, backing Russia in Ukraine to weaken us.

The longer we deny this reality, the harder it will be to deter China from escalating its support Image
2/5 China is the biggest enabler of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

It provides financial support, military assistance, and helps Russia evade sanctions.

It shares intelligence, supplies dual-use goods, and uses its proxy North Korea to arm Russia.

This is active involvement Image
3/5 Despite Western pressure, China’s aid to Russia keeps growing.

Our current strategy has failed.

China is fueling Russia’s war against Ukraine and against Europe.

That makes China a direct threat to European security Image
Read 5 tweets

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