Joni Askola Profile picture
Oct 12 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/6 Russia’s war on Ukraine may have entered its final stage.

However, this stage could be long, brutal, and extremely costly Image
2/6 For the first time in nearly 4 years of full-scale war, long-range strikes are shaping the war’s future more than movements on the front lines Image
3/6 Russia has bombarded Ukraine since day one.

Ukraine has been striking back for over a year.

Now, both sides produce so many drones and missiles that strike campaigns may matter more than territorial control Image
4/6 Ukraine targets refineries, military infrastructure, and Russia’s power grid.

Russia hits everything, including civilians.

Destruction will escalate. Ukraine urgently needs more air defense Image
5/6 Ukraine’s strategy is to bring the war to Russia and make it too costly to continue.

With US intel boosting precision, this approach is working.

It may take time, but it is the only way to accelerate the end Image
6/6 Europe must step up its aid, especially for air defense and long-range strike systems.

Ukraine needs funding, technology, and scale.

This phase will decide the war’s future and how soon it ends Image

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More from @joni_askola

Oct 14
1/5 With Gaza partially settled for now, Trump is shifting focus.

Zelensky is meeting him this week.

Ukraine wants Tomahawk missiles. Trump sounds more supportive than ever.

But don’t get fooled Image
2/5 Yes, Tomahawks would help.

But there are only a few ground launchers available.

Unless sent in large numbers, they won’t change the war.

Even so, a few would be a powerful signal Image
3/5 Trump has sounded promising lately.

But he hasn’t sent new aid. Hasn’t added sanctions. And just thanked Putin for saying he deserved a Nobel Peace Prize.

This is who he is Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 13
1/5 China spent years quietly building influence in Europe through trade, technology, propaganda, and diplomacy. It worked for China.

But backing Russia’s war in Ukraine was a strategic mistake.

Europe is now rethinking its relationship with Beijing Image
2/5 China refused to condemn the invasion, boosted Russian energy exports, helped dodge sanctions, sold machinery, sent proxy aid, shared intel, and echoed anti-West narratives.

It didn’t go unnoticed.

Europe now sees China not just as a competitor but as a threat to stability Image
3/5 The Netherlands just seized a Chinese-owned chipmaker.

Germany and France are tightening tech controls.

The EU is investing in supply chain independence and defense coordination.

China’s influence strategy is being dismantled bit by bit Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 13
1/8 Putin's Perspective — If you were Putin, this is the nightmare you’d be living:

You started a useless war that was supposed to last days. It has lasted years.

You thought Ukraine would fold. Instead, it became stronger, more united, and more militarized than ever Image
2/8 You started a useless war.

You made this non-existential war existential. You went all in.

You sacrificed your economy, your military, and your global standing.

And you are further from your goals than before the war began. Pathetic! Image
3/8 You wanted NATO to back off. Instead, it expanded.

You wanted to divide the West. Instead, it rallied.

You wanted to weaken Ukraine. Instead, it became a symbol of resistance Image
Read 8 tweets
Oct 13
1/6 Russia’s economy is falling apart.

Ukraine’s strike campaign is hitting key sectors hard.

Even before the war, Russia’s economy was fragile: reliant on energy exports, too centralized, corrupt, and facing a labor crisis.

The war made it all worse Image
2/6 The war has made everything worse.

Russia now depends on energy exports and the defense industry.

Civilian sectors are starved of labor.

The economy is shrinking from within Image
3/6 Despite massive public spending, Russia barely grows.

Inflation is rising, but output is flat.

If any Western country increased its spending this much, it would see a boom.

Russia sees stagnation. That is a disaster Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 12
1/4 How many more successful strikes will it take to break Russia’s economy, and how long will it take?

No one knows for sure, and it could take a long time.

The faster Ukraine scales up drone and missile production, the faster the war will end Image
2/4 Ukraine has hit Russia’s refineries hard in recent months.

Russia’s economy is already suffering from the war.

It is important to stay realistic. Russia still has ways to buy time Image
3/4 Trump could change US policy.

Russia could raise taxes, seek more aid from allies, privatize assets, seize oligarch wealth, move infrastructure east, and strike Ukraine’s defense production Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 10
1/7 A rough winter is coming to Ukraine.

Russia will strike harder than ever, with more drones and missiles than in previous years.

Europe has a duty to act now to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses.

There is no time to waste Image
2/7 We need to place urgent orders for more SAMP/T, IRIS-T, and other effective systems.

That includes Patriot batteries, while Trump still allows them to be sold.

Ukraine needs them.

There is no excuse not to act Image
3/7 France and Italy produce the SAMP/T, the only European system with range comparable to the Patriot.

Ukraine already operates two batteries but likely lacks interceptors.

Production levels are still far too low Image
Read 7 tweets

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