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The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
@KobeissiLetter
Oct 12 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
We've spent the last 10 months analyzing EVERY single tariff development:

Here's the EXACT playbook for investors.

1. Trump puts out cryptic post on tariffs coming for a specific country or sector, markets drift lower

2. Trump announces large tariff rate (50%+) and markets crash to shake out weak positions

3. Dip buyers step in but the head fake rally leads to fresh lows where smart money begins buying

4. After the market closes on Friday, President Trump doubles down on new tariffs to apply pressure

5. On Saturday, the target of the new tariff typically responds or comments

6. On Sunday, before the futures open, Trump posts an announcement saying he is working on a solution

7. Futures open on sharply higher Sunday at 6 PM ET but begin losing momentum into the Monday open

8. After the Monday open, Treasury Secretary Bessent appears on live TV and reassures investors

9. Over the next 2-4 weeks, various members of the Trump Administration tease a trade deal

10. Trump announces a new trade deal and the stock market hits a record high

11. Repeat from step #1

Part of our strong YTD performance comes from following this EXACT playbook in times of trade tensions.

The US is currently on step #6 with China.
Like and Bookmark the above post - reference it as the trade war heads into 2026.

The ability to weed out NOISE from material developments is crucial right now.

This market is very profitable if done right.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
Our investment strategy revolves are OBJECTIVE analysis; fundamental and technical.

Combine this with risk management and a dynamic approach and this market is HIGHLY profitable.

Volatility is opportunity.

Subscribe to access our premium analysis:

thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe

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More from @KobeissiLetter

The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Oct 11
It's official:

Crypto just saw its LARGEST liquidation event in history with 1.6 MILLION traders liquidated.

Over $19 BILLION worth of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, 9 TIMES the previous record.

Why did this happen? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
To put this into perspective:

The liquidation event we saw over the last 24 hours was ~$17 BILLION larger than the February 2025 crash.

It was more than 19 TIMES larger than the March 2020 crash and collapse of FTX.

Never in history have we seen anything even close to this. Image
Amid the liquidation, Bitcoin recorded a $20,000 DAILY candlestick.

This marks a $380 BILLION swing in Bitcoin's market cap alone, in a single-day.

That's more than the market cap of all but 25 public companies in the world.

Once again, this has never happened in history. Image
Read 12 tweets
The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Oct 10
What just happened?

At 10:57 AM ET, President Trump canceled his meeting with China and said "massive" tariff increases are coming.

40 minutes later, the S&P 500 erased -$1.2 TRILLION of market cap.

Is this dip a BUYING opportunity? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Here is the statement that President Trump posted today.

He accused China of "lying" and imposing export controls on rare earth metals.

Trump cancelled his meeting in 2 weeks with China's President Xi and said "massive" tariff increases are coming.

So, what does it all mean? Image
Rare earths have been very important for Trump.

Between a Ukraine deal and the US-China trade war, Trump has prioritized rare earths.

These metals are CRUCIAL for the production of weapons, chips, AI, and strategic leverage.

The US gets ~70% of its rare earths from China. Image
Read 12 tweets
The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Oct 9
This is BEYOND insane:

AI compute demand is now growing at over 2 TIMES the rate of Moore’s Law, creating a massive shortage.

Just to meet current demand, $500 billion must be invested in data centers PER YEAR until 2030.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
For decades, Moore’s Law was the gold standard measure of technological progress.

That is: the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles every 2 years.

AI has BROKEN this law.

AI’s compute demand has grown at DOUBLE the rate of Moore's Law over the last 10 years. Image
Compute is quickly becoming the world's most valuable commodity.

By 2028, global data center spend will hit $900 BILLION.

AI servers are growing at a +41% CAGR and the market overall is growing at a +23% CAGR.

This is UNPRECEDENTED growth for the industry. Image
Read 12 tweets
The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Oct 7
Are we in a currency confidence crisis?

Today, gold futures officially hit a RECORD $4,000/oz, now up +100% in 19 months.

The last time gold DOUBLED in under 2 years was in the 1970s after the historic "Nixon Shock."

What's happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Today, our long-time target of $4,000/oz was crossed by gold futures.

In February 2024, gold hit $2,000/oz in what seemed to be a historic move.

19 months later, gold prices have doubled in their fastest move since the 1970s.

This is a crucial point to understand. Image
The last time this happened was after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s.

Bretton Woods was a post-WW2 monetary agreement with 44 countries.

Its central feature was a FIXED exchange rate that PEGGED currencies to the USD.

This was then convertible to gold. Image
Read 12 tweets
The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Oct 5
What is happening?

The S&P 500 is up +40% in 6 months, Gold is nearing $4,000/oz, and Bitcoin hit a record $2.5 TRILLION market cap.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar is set for its WORST year since 1973.

Are markets THAT strong or is the US Dollar just crashing?

(a thread) Image
Yesterday, on a casual Saturday night, Bitcoin surged to $125,000, a new all time high.

This makes Bitcoin worth a record $2.5 trillion.

Meanwhile, gold has hit 40 record highs in 2025 and is now worth a whopping $26.3 TRILLION.

That's more than 10 TIMES the value of Bitcoin. Image
Meanwhile, take a look at Silver, worth $2.7 TRILLION and up over +60% YTD.

Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin are now all in the top 10 largest assets in the world.

These are all typically viewed as safe haven assets which rise when stocks fall.

But, take a look at equity markets. Image
Read 12 tweets
The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Sep 30
The US government shutdown:

For the first time since 2018, the US is about to enter a government shutdown and investors are bracing for it.

This would furlough 750,000 workers PER DAY, costing ~$400M in daily compensation.

What does it all mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
The last time we entered a government shutdown was in December 2018, in Trump's 1st term.

The shutdown lasted 35 days, making it the longest government shutdown in US history.

The average length of a shutdown is 8 days and its implications spread further when it lasts longer. Image
During a shutdown, many Federal functions are suspended.

Services that the government deems “essential,” such as those related to law enforcement, continue.

If an agreement is not reached by 12:01 AM ET on October 1st, the US government will officially enter a shutdown. Image
Read 12 tweets

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